A. Market Insights
I. Macroeconomic Liquidity
Tightened monetary liquidity. The cooling of US inflation, with a year-on-year CPI growth of 3% in June, slightly better than the expected 3.1%, has brought new hope for the Federal Reserve to quickly end its most aggressive rate hike in decades. There is still a possibility of an interest rate hike in July, but the future is uncertain. The US dollar index has begun a weekly decline, reaching a one-year low. US stocks have shown strong upward momentum, reaching a new rebound high in 15 months. The crypto market benefits from the Ripple lawsuit victory and breaks through.
II. Overall Market Situation
Top 100 market cap gainers:
This week, the market broke through strongly. BTC dominance has declined, and altcoins have performed actively. XRP's years-long lawsuit with the SEC has finally come to an end, and it has been ruled that it is not a security. The tokens such as SOL, MATIC, and ADA, which experienced significant price drops due to being classified as securities, have also seen good gains as POW narratives are replaced by POS. The main focus of the market is RWA and POS.
COMP: The market leader in RWA (Real World Assets) is the founder of a new company that provides RWA services, and the market expects cooperation with the original business. COMP has a significantly better trading chip structure than MKR in the same field, with less selling pressure from institutional profit-taking.
SOL: The public chain Solana has strong consensus in Europe and America, and the developer community remains active. The NFT transaction volume on Solana has surpassed that of the ETH chain in the short term. Jump organization team has built a new validator client for Solana, demonstrating 1.2 million transactions per second.
FTT: The claim website of FTX exchange has been launched, and there is a certain probability of relaunch in the future. Similar to the meme speculation logic of LUNC, but FTT has better liquidity and popularity than general memes because it is listed on Binance exchange.
ARKM: It is the latest IEO project of Binance exchange, similar to Nansen's on-chain data monitoring platform. The core functions include searching wallet addresses, tracking specific traders, monitoring fund flows, etc., aiming to become an intelligence trading platform. The founder's previous project was RSR, which was also listed on Binance exchange and focused on stablecoin track. The majority of ARKM tokens are held by the team or in controlled circulation. The latest round of financing valued it at $150 million.
III. BTC Market
1) On-chain data
BTC on-chain activities are slowing down. The main reason is the decline in transaction volume, and the congestion on the BTC network is starting to ease. However, the volume of currency transfers is increasing, growing 80% from the low point in November. Currently, about 75% of the total supply of BTC is in a profitable state, while 25% is in a loss state, reaching a historical balance.
Funds continue to flow out of the market, indicating that investors are still in a relatively sluggish state. Without new narratives or negative data, there is still a high possibility of maintaining a narrow range of price fluctuations.
Long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the market total cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is in the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is in the bottom range. If MVRV falls below the key level of 1, holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 0.76, entering the recovery phase.
2) Futures Market
Funding rate: neutral this week. Rates at 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, indicate a short-term market top; rates at -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, indicate a short-term market bottom.
Open interest: total open interest remains high this week, with a slight increase compared to the previous period.
Long/Short Ratio: 0.8. Market sentiment is bearish. Retail investor sentiment is usually a contrarian indicator, with below 0.7 indicating fear and above 2.0 indicating greed. The fluctuation in the long/short ratio data weakens its significance as a reference.
3) Spot Market
This week, BTC has broken through and rebounded to a new high. The macro environment has provided the necessary time for BTC and altcoins to strengthen. Referring to the best liquidity of the US stock market, the short-term trend is still upward. Many strong coins have started to rise, such as the POS token previously suppressed by the US Securities Commission, which is expected to take the lead. The altcoin season is coming.
B. Market Data:
1. Total Lockup of Public Chains
2. TVL Distribution of various Public Chains
This week, TVL decreased by 1 billion, and the TVL distribution of the ETH chain decreased slightly, maintaining around 58.45%.
Looking at the TVL data from the past seven days, BSC chain's TVL has increased by 0.54%, and Solana has increased by 8.28%. In the core chain TVL of Ethereum Layer 2 networks, Arbitrum has declined by 0.21%, Optimism has declined by 1.52% this week, Polygon has increased by 3.25%, and Avalanche has increased by 0.48%.
Looking at the active users in the past seven days, Arbitrum has 162,556 active users, Polygon has 417,396 active users, Optimism has 98,276 active users, and Avalanche has 75,326 active users.
III. Lock-up Volume of Various Chain Protocols
1) ETH Lock-up Volume
2) BSC Lock-up Volume
3) Tron Lock-up Volume
4) Avalanche Lock-up Volume
5) Polygon Lock-up Amount Situation
6) Arbitrum Lock-up Amount Situation
7) Optimism Lock-up Amount Situation
IV. ETH Gas Fee History
The current on-chain transfer fee is about $4.7, Uniswap transaction fee is about $41.69, and Opensea transaction fee is about $16.19. Compared to last week, gas fees have significantly increased but are still within the bottom range. There have been several rebounds in the past few weeks, but no substantial breakthroughs.
On layer 2 networks, deposit fees are as follows: Arbitrum $20.58, Optimism $34.08, Polygon $33.71, ZkSync $32.41.
V. NFT Market Data Changes
1) NFT-500 Index:
2) NFT Market Situation:
3) NFT Trading Market Share:
4) NFT Buyer Analysis:
5) Active Projects:
From the perspective of trading volume and market volume, the NFT market is at an absolute bottom. From the perspective of active projects, the market lacks activity and is still oscillating slightly at the bottom. From the overview of the NFT market, the floor price of blue-chip projects has rebounded this week. Azuki has risen by 0.48% after a significant decline of two weeks, BAYC has risen by 10%, MAYC has risen by 1.9%, and DeGods has risen by 7.06%. However, the overall market value of NFT is still declining.
This week, the number of new and old NFT trading users has rebounded slightly, but the overall trend is still downward, and the decline has been severe based on the recent curve. Especially, the number of new NFT users entering the market is decreasing.
6) Latest Project Financing Situation
About Foresight Ventures
Foresight Ventures is an innovative journey that bets on the future of cryptocurrencies for the next few decades. It manages multiple funds: VC Fund, Secondary Active Management Fund, Multi-Strategy FOF, Special Purpose S Fund "Foresight Secondary Fund I", with total assets under management exceeding $400 million. Foresight Ventures adheres to the concept of "Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term" and provides extensive support to projects through its strong ecological power. Its team consists of senior professionals from top financial and technology companies including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, and Bitmain.
