A. Market Perspectives
I. Macroeconomic Liquidity
Tightening of monetary liquidity. The three forces of the US government's massive debt issuance plan, significantly better-than-expected employment data, and the Fitch downgrade, have collectively increased the US dollar and US bond yields. The US stock market has become overheated in the short term, leading to some fund withdrawals. The Chinese stock market has implemented policy measures to provide support and stimulate the market. The cryptocurrency market volatility is at historically low levels.
II. Overall Market Trends
Top 100 market capitalization gainers:
The market has shown weak and volatile performance this week. In the short term, leading defi project CRV and dog-themed project BALD have experienced consecutive setbacks, impacting market sentiment. There is a lack of liquidity within the market, and opportunities lie in new and small coins on blockchain-based platforms. The market hotspots are RWA and OP.
1. CRV: Curve is a major stablecoin trading platform in the defi space, and it has recently been targeted by a vulnerability attack. The risks of liquidation on its lending platform have temporarily been resolved. Sun Yuchen and other large token holders and founders have been trading CRV off-exchange and have locked their holdings for 6 months. However, the dispersed token holdings may have a negative impact on the long-term price.
2. VELO: Due to recent OP incentive activities, transaction fee income has reached a new high. At the same time, the Base Chain, built on OP, has gained popularity, and future projects on this chain may airdrop to VELO token holders.
3. BNB: Recently launched Sei and Cyberconnect, two new coin launch activities. The United States plans to sue Binance for fraud. Binance's Chinese users have a monthly trading volume of 90 billion USD, accounting for approximately 40% of the revenue.
III. BTC Market
1) On-chain Data
Market trading has reached a freezing point. In July, total on-chain transaction volume decreased by 17%, and compliant exchange spot trading volume also decreased by 17%, the lowest since October 2020. In July, BTC futures open interest decreased by 8%, and futures trading volume decreased by 27%.
Stablecoin market capitalization slightly decreased. In July, stablecoin issuance decreased by 1%, with USDT market share rising to 72% and USDC falling to 21%.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore, based on the total market cost, reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is above 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is below 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV falling below the critical level of 1 indicates that holders are generally at a loss. The current indicator is 0.64, entering the recovery phase.
2) Futures Market
Futures funding rate: Neutral this week, but buying the dip sentiment increasing. Rate is 0.05-0.1%, indicating a short-term market top with more long leverage; rate is -0.1-0%, indicating a short-term market bottom with more short leverage.
Futures open interest: Total open interest remained unchanged this week, lacking the bullish news to break the previous high point of 31,000 BTC in open interest.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.6. Market sentiment gradually leaning towards buying the dip. Retail investor sentiment is often a contrarian indicator, with below 0.7 indicating fear and above 2.0 indicating greed. The fluctuation in long-short ratio data weakens its significance as a reference.
3) Spot Market Conditions
The market remains in a consolidation mode this week with repeated tests. Short-term investors are cautiously waiting for a dip, as the lack of catalysts leads to further consolidation. From a broader macro liquidity cycle perspective, it has consistently aligned with the BTC halving cycle (since 2008). In fact, BTC price is more demand-driven rather than supply-driven.
B. Market Data:
1. Total Locked Amount of Public Chains
2. Distribution of TVL Across Public Chains
This week, TVL has significantly decreased by 3.4 billion, a decline of 7.8%. The proportion of ETH chain has dropped by 1.2%, the largest decrease in recent weeks. Due to market volatility, mainstream public chains have seen a decrease of around 10% in both TVL and active users, with Polygon experiencing a decline of 15.13%.
3. Locked Amount of Protocols on Various Chains
1) ETH Locked Amount:
2) BSC Locked Amount:
3) Polygon Lockup Volume
4) Arbitrum Lockup Volume
5) Optimism Lockup Volume
4. ETH Gas Fee History
The current on-chain transfer fee is approximately $1.55, Uniswap transaction fee is approximately $13.96, and Opensea transaction fee is approximately $5.42. The gas level this week is largely unchanged from last week, but both Uniswap and Opensea transaction fees have increased to some extent, which may indicate a rebound in transaction activity.
5. NFT Market Data Changes
1) NFT-500 Index:
2) NFT Market Situation:
3) NFT Trading Market Share:
4) NFT Buyer Analysis:
5) Marketcap of Different Categories of NFT:
The floor prices of blue-chip projects have all experienced varying degrees of decline this week, with CloneX having the largest drop of 24%. Blur continues to maintain a significantly larger market share. Looking at the active wallet addresses of new and existing NFT buyers, the payment situation for existing users has continued to weaken this week, but there has been a slight recovery in new user participation. In the long run, both new and existing users have a downward trend. In terms of the market value of different categories of NFT, social-related NFTs have the highest total market value, but the largest decline in terms of medium to long-term perspective, while art-related NFTs have shown relatively more stability in market value fluctuations.
VI. Latest Financing Situation of the Project
About Foresight Ventures
Foresight Ventures bets on the innovation journey of cryptocurrencies in the next few decades. It manages several funds, including VC Fund, Secondary Active Management Fund, Multi-Strategy FOF, Special Purpose S Fund "Foresight Secondary Fund l", with total assets under management exceeding $400 million. Foresight Ventures adheres to the principles of "Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term" and provides extensive support to projects through its strong ecosystem. Its team consists of senior professionals from top financial and technology companies, including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, Bitmain, etc.
