The market ended November with a strong performance, with most of the recent gains able to continue, with the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index having its best monthly performance (in price terms) since 1987; yesterdays U.S. economic data basically had no impact on the market Having a major impact, core PCE increased by 0.2% month-on-month in October, in line with expectations, while the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose.
The U.S. dollar rose after a rough month as the euro fell on lower-than-expected CPI and the U.S. dollar rebounded from an oversold position. Separately, several Fed officials finally began to try to counter the recent dovish optimism in the bond market. Clamping down with some tougher rhetoric, the 2-year yield briefly jumped above 4.70%, pushing the dollar higher as traders dialed back some of their extremely dovish expectations ahead of Powells fireside chat.
In other news, the outcome of the closely watched OPEC+ meeting disappointed the market. The meeting failed to reach a formal resolution on the widely expected production cut of 1 million barrels per day. Instead, member states will announce their own voluntary reductions. Saudi Arabia It only reiterated that it would continue the current scale of cuts, while other countries were more vague on the details of the quota. Affected by this, the Brent crude oil and WTI contracts gave up almost all the pre-meeting gains, and the futures once fell by more than 1.3%; in the short term; , as lower oil prices help control inflationary pressures and may be seen as positive for risk sentiment and bond markets.
Cryptocurrency prices are still in a stable state. It is worth noting that Coinbase’s stock price has increased 3 times from its January low, significantly outperforming mainstream currencies and most tokens. This may reflect the public’s eagerness to trade without leaving the TradFi ecosystem. We remain optimistic that further mainstream participation will have a positive impact on prices beyond 2024, although the distribution of returns may differ from what was seen during previous crypto bull cycles. .
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