Supported by multiple positive expectations, BTC exceeded $40,000 and hit a 20-month high

2 months ago
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Expectations for next year: interest rate cut + halving + spot ETF approval.

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Supported by multiple positive expectations, BTC exceeded ,000 and hit a 20-month high

OKX Ouyi market shows that at 6 oclock this morning, the price of Bitcoin briefly exceeded US$40,000, setting a record since April 28, 2022; the 24-hour increase reached 1.8%, and is currently reported at US$40,200.

In addition, according to the latest data from 8marketcap, the market value of Bitcoin has risen to US$784 billion, surpassing Berkshire Hathaway and returning to the top 10 assets/companies in the world by market value.

Market review: After 20 months, it has returned to US$40,000

Since breaking through $30,000 in October, Bitcoin has been fluctuating at high levels. It remained at a high level of above US$35,000 throughout November. Even if it fell below in the short term, it could quickly recover the lost ground. The weekly bottom continued to rise, and finally closed at US$37,723 in November, with a monthly increase of 8.9%.

Entering December, Bitcoin continued its momentum, breaking through multiple small resistance levels one after another, and successfully broke through the $40,000 mark at 6 oclock this morning, setting a new high in 20 months. Starting from US$16,500 at the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has experienced a cumulative increase of 143% during the year.

Early this morning, ETH also successfully exceeded US$2,200, setting a new high in May 2022. It is currently trading at US$2,205. ETH has increased by 1.9% in the past 24 hours. Unlike the strong performance of Bitcoin this year, ETH appears to be relatively sluggish. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to decline, falling below 0.05 from the lowest of 0.072 at the beginning of the year. It is currently reported at 0.054, and there has never been a big rebound.

Among the top ten tokens by market capitalization today, only ETH has slightly exceeded BTCs increase; among the top 50 tokens by market capitalization, TAO (+10.4%), RNDR (+9%), MATIC (+6.7%), SHIB (+4.7%) ), LINK (+4.2%), and AVAX (+4.3%) performed well, and the other tokens did not rise as much as BTC.

Affected by the upward trend of the overall market, the current total crypto market value has exceeded 1.5 trillion US dollars, up 1.3% in 24 hours; crypto users trading enthusiasm has increased significantly. Todays panic and greed index is 74 (last weeks average was 70), and the degree of greed has increased compared with last week. , the level continues to be greedy.

In terms of derivatives trading,According to CoinglassAccording to the data, the entire network liquidated $120 million in the past 24 hours, of which BTC liquidated $39.36 million, ETH liquidated $16.13 million, and other altcoins accounted for 57%; a total of 52,297 people became victims of liquidation.

Supported by multiple positive expectations, BTC exceeded ,000 and hit a 20-month high

In addition, Grayscale product discounts have improved. GBTCs net asset value discount rate is currently 8.69%. GBTC discounts continue to narrow, and the discount level has hit a new low in the past two years, indicating that the market continues to have confidence in Grayscale GBTCs conversion to spot ETFs. rise.

The remaining Grayscale mainstream currency trust discount rates are as follows: ETH (-13.40%) and ETC (-33.21%); there are 11 products with positive premiums, namely FIL (+721.34%), SOL (+301.57%), LINK (+223.60%), MANA (+184.07%), XLM (+160.98%), LPT (+116.69%), BAT (+61.06%), LTC (+38.39%), ZEN (+30.68%), BCH ( +19.79%) and ZEC (+3.17%).

Crypto-related listed companies have also been affected by the rising market, with stock prices generally rising by more than 10% in the past month. Among them, the share price of Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), an American compliance encryption platform, has increased by nearly 54.97% in the past month, and is temporarily reported at 133.76 US dollars; the stock price of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), a listed company with the largest Bitcoin holdings, has increased by 14.81% in the past month, and is temporarily reported at 527.68 US dollars. Dollar.

Four reasons support this market rise

Odaily synthesized information from multiple parties and sorted out several influencing factors for this round of market rise:

One is the Fed’s expectation of interest rate cuts next year.Fed Governor Waller, who is generally hawkish, said at a recent event that if progress in reducing inflation continues, the Fed may cut interest rates in a few months. This news may be the main reason for the rise in the market in the past week. This is also the first time that a representative of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has publicly expressed expectations for an interest rate cut.

The second is the increase in holdings of listed companies.On November 30, MicroStrategy, a listed company with the largest Bitcoin holdings, once again spent US$593.3 million to purchase 16,130 BTC at an average price of 36,785 USDT. This capital may be one of the important forces driving the recent rise of Bitcoin.

Third, incremental OTC funds continue to enter the market. Crypto fund company EMC Labs noted in a November briefing that net stablecoin inflows expanded to $3.5 billion in November, 3.5 times the net inflows in October. EMC Labs’ judgment: If stablecoins continue to maintain inflows in December, then stablecoins will confirm their entry into a bull market. In the most optimistic scenario, the crypto market will enter the early stages of the 5th round of the crypto asset bull market as soon as January 2024.

Fourth, long-term Bitcoin holders are still reluctant to sell their coins, and the selling pressure is relatively small.Glassnodes on-chain weekly report released on November 20 showed that as market transactions reached the high point of the year, more than 16.366 million BTC (equivalent to 83.6% of the circulating supply) were in profit. This is the highest since November 2021 ( near all-time highs). But the extent of unrealized profits held by investors has so far not been enough to motivate long-term holders to sell, keeping total supply relatively tight.

The future: interest rate cut + halving + spot ETF approval, triple expected positive blessings

Bitcoin has exceeded the $40,000 mark, and its future trend may be affected by the following factors.

One is the expectation of approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF. The most critical time point at present is before January 10 next year. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart said that the approval window for spot Bitcoin ETFs is expected to be between January 5 and 10, 2024. If the Bitcoin spot ETF is finally approved, it may bring more incremental funds to the crypto market, thus driving up the price of Bitcoin. Refer to the case of the price surge after the passage of the gold spot ETF.

The second is the halving market. The Bitcoin halving time is on May 9, 2024, and the time is gradually approaching. According to the previous halving market, Bitcoin is due to the decline in issuance speed and the reduction of the supply side. If the demand remains unchanged, it will also lead to an increase. In addition, historical data shows that Bitcoin will peak around 368-550 days after the halving, and then bottom out 779-914 days after the halving.

Third, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates. Currently, major institutions or relevant data are saying that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2024 is gradually increasing.

Matrixport said in a recent report that in the first half of next year, some key events may affect the development trajectory of Bitcoin, including the SEC’s possible approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, Circle considering listing, and FTX’s attempt to restart. These events, coupled with the Bitcoin halving cycle and Ethereum’s Q1 2024 upgrade, have set an optimistic tone for the market.

Feedback from market conditions suggests that the recent rise in Bitcoin may be due to a combination of multiple factors. Odaily would like to remind everyone that investment involves risks and should be treated with caution.

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ODAILY reminds readers to establish correct monetary and investment concepts, rationally view blockchain, and effectively improve risk awareness; We can actively report and report any illegal or criminal clues discovered to relevant departments.

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