SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

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SignalPlus
2 months ago
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Macro assets had a fantastic month in November, posting their best synchronized returns in decades, and the first week of December produced similarly stunning results, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield falling nearly 40 basis points, 5 Tenure fell by 34 basis points, the most dramatic drop in yiel

SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

Finally it’s ETH📈’s turn. Recently, this ETF has passed + expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. It is estimated that the currency price will be strong until at least the end of January. Dont short the volatility recently. The profit ratio at the end of the day should be quite high.

SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

Macro assets had a spectacular performance in November, posting their best synchronized returns in decades, and the first week of December produced similarly stunning results, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield falling nearly 40 basis points, 5 The tenor fell by 34 basis points, which was the most dramatic drop in yields since the SVB crisis. The last time a similar situation occurred dates back to the global financial crisis; the drop in yields pushed technology stocks up 6% this week, except for the energy sector. In addition, all SPX sectors rose sharply; in addition, the overall financial situation eased the most in history in November. It seems that Santa Claus not only arrived early this year, but also enjoyed extending his stay.

SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

Powells remarks on Friday failed to counter market expectations, with investors doubling down on the chance of a rate cut in 2024, and bond prices rebounded as a result, although Powell tried to downplay expectations of a rate cut during the conversation, saying it is too early to speculate on when policy will be eased. Too early, but the market chose to focus on his statement that he is ready to further tighten policy...if appropriate, inferring that Powell believes that the current environment is not suitable for raising interest rates, and he admitted that the current interest rate has entered a restrictive zone, which is the Feds The clearest sign of the end of the interest rate hike cycle, with the market now expecting more than five rate cuts in 2024(!), it looks like the race to cut interest rates has already begun.

SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

This week will usher in the last JOLTS and non-farm payrolls reports of the year. Considering the sharp rise in U.S. debt over the past four weeks, these data have become even more important; this week is also the last opportunity for Fed officials to comment before entering the silent period, and it is also their last chance to comment. The last chance to refute the current market expectations of interest rate cuts.

Cryptocurrencies have also joined this wave of price action, with BTC topping $40,000, ETH topping $2,200, and futures short liquidations starting to increase again.

SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

On-chain activity for BTC, ETH, and stablecoins also rebounded in November after a difficult period, although it is difficult to tell whether this recovery can be sustained. CEX trading volume has also picked up, but is still well below 2022 levels, while BTC options, although trading volume is lower, have been able to stay near the 2021 highs, which is an outstanding performance.

SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231204): More than 5 interest rate cuts are expected in 2024

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