Original - Odaily
Author-Kate
Wormhole, one of the three leaders in the cross-chain interoperability trackThe claiming and issuance of airdrop tokens will start at 19:30 today, currently many exchanges have issued online announcements:
OKX will launch W/USDT trading at 20:00 (UTC+ 8) on April 3. Deposits are now open, and withdrawals will be open at 20:00 (UTC+ 8) on April 4.
Binance will list Wormhole (W) at 20:00 (UTC+ 8) on April 3 and add a seed tag to it, and open the following spot trading pairs: W/BTC, W/USDT, W/FDUSD, W/TRY, Withdrawals will be open at 20:00 (UTC+ 8) on April 4th.
Bitget will go online at 12:00 (UTC) on April 3, and the withdrawal opening time is expected to be 13:00 (UTC) on April 4.
AscendEX (formerly BitMax) will launch Wormhole (W) at 20:10 on April 3, opening the W/USDT trading pair, and deposits are now open.
Wormhole financing background
Wormhole Foundation and Jump Crypto in November 2022Received a round of financing of US$225 million, at a valuation of US$2.5 billion. Investors in this round include Brevan Howard, Coinbase Ventures, Multicoin Capital, Jump Crypto, ParaFi, Dialectic, Borderless Capital, Arrington Capital, and others.
W Token Economics
W function
The roadmap released by Wormhole states that W will become a native multi-chain token, leveraging the unique advantages of Solana and EVM chains, while introducing a multi-chain governance system. Plans for W include:
Will initially launch as the native SPL token on Solana;
Scaling on the EVM chain using Wormhole Native Token Transfer (NTT);
W holders will be able to lock and delegate their tokens on the Solana and EVM chains.
Wormhole DAO is composed of W token holders and will be operated through a multi-chain governance system.
The system will be available on Solana, Ethereum mainnet, and EVM L2 at launch. Multi-chain governance will allow token holders to create, vote and execute governance proposals across different chains.
Tokenomics
W tokens are used in the governance system of Wormhole DAO. Token holders have the right to vote on decisions such as adding or removing blockchains connected to Wormhole, upgrading smart contracts, changing fees, and more.
Maximum supply: 10, 000, 000, 000
Initial circulation: 1, 800, 000, 000
Token formats: Native ERC 20 and SPL (native token transfer standard using Wormhole)
Lockup: 82% of W are initially locked, and these tokens will be unlocked over four years according to the token issuance schedule below.
Token distribution
Running a transaction verification node: 5.1%, 510, 000, 000 W
Community and Token Issuance: 17%, 1,700,000,000 W
Ecosystem and Financing: 31%, 3, 100, 000, 000 W
Core Contributors: 12%, 1,200,000,000 W
Network Participants: 11.6%, 1, 160, 000, 000 W
Foundation: 23.3%, 23,300,000,000 W
Airdrop details
This airdrop will be distributed in the form of ERC 20 and SPL on 5 initial chains, namely Ethereum, Solana, Arbitrum, Optimism and Base. This airdrop will allocate 6.75% (674, 800, 000 - updated April 2) of tokens, with a total of over 400, 000 wallet addresses receiving the airdrop.
This airdrop includes 549, 000, 000 W, for on-chain activity of users (including ecosystem development teams) using Wormhole ecosystem applications on over 30 Wormhole connected blockchains, and approximately 129,000,000 W for community users such as Wormhole Discord users, various NFT communities, Monad communities and the top 10,000 Pyth stakers.
Users can inquire about W token airdrops through multiple portals.
Wormhole airdrop query portaleligibility checker, users can separately query EVM, Solana, Sui, Aptos, Injective, Terra, Algorand, and Osmosis network addresses to claim airdrops, and support connecting to Discord accounts to check whether they meet community qualifications.
Airdrop query portal:http://airdrop.wormhole.com
price prediction
Comparison with Axelar
Wormhole, Axelar and ZeroLayer are regarded as the three giants in the cross-chain interoperability field. The three are quite close in terms of financing background, track and technology. As the first debut project, Axelar’s current valuation can be regarded as One of our references for W valuation.
Assume first that the market values of the two are the same.According to CoinGecko data, the market capitalization of AXL after listing is approximately in the range of US$1.07 to US$1.36 billion. Based on this, it is speculated that the unit price of W is approximately US$0.6 to US$0.75.
Based on the past 24 H TVB, Wormhole Portal Bridge is about US$11.08 million, Axelar Squid is about US$8.71 million, and the estimated W price is about US$0.76~0.95.
Pre-market transaction price
according toBybit Premarket Data, W is currently trading at an average price of $1.7.
according toKuCoin Premarket Data, W is currently trading at an average price of $1.68.
according toWhales Market Quotes, Ws average selling price in the over-the-counter market is about $1.5.
Based on the above data, the price of W is likely to fall into the range of 1.5 ~ 1.7 US dollars. Historical data shows that the highest value outside the market has exceeded 2 US dollars.
Analyst forecasts
Investor Shrey Roxen estimates that the W token will be listed on OKX at a price between $1.25 and $1.5.
SOL, ETH and BTC analyst Steve is more optimistic, predicting that the price of W token will be $1.7 and will quickly grow to $2.5.
5-year valuation
Heres Odailys attempt at a 5-year neutral and bullish valuation for Warmhole:
Neutral valuation:
Assume total blockchain transaction volume grows at a CAGR of 30%, from $16 billion to $58 billion. We assume that the cross-chain market share grows to 10% of all blockchain transactions and Wormholes market share reaches 25% - evenly distributed among the 4 major players (Axelar, Warmhole, ZeroLayer, Chainlink), then the Wormhole market value is $1.45 billion (lower than 2022 forecast valuation).
bull market valuation
Total blockchain transactions grew at a compound annual growth rate of 50%, reaching $119 billion. We assume that the cross-chain market share grows to 30% of all blockchain transactions and Wormhole’s market share reaches 50% and becomes the leader in the GMP field. Then Wormhole’s market value is $17.85 billion.
Note: The above content does not constitute investment advice, investors are advised to choose targets carefully.
