Bitget Research Institute: Historically, the gas freezing point has coincided with the mid-term price low many times. If a second drop occurs, you can buy the bottom in batches

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Bitget研究院
1 months ago
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BTC ended its rebound and plummeted over the weekend. The gas on the ETH chain dropped to 1gwei. The market is extremely lacking in hot spots. In the short term, there is a possibility of a second decline in the market. However, the BTC reserves of centralized exchanges have fallen to a five-year low and whales continue to hoard BTC during the decline. The long-term outlook is still bullish.

In the past 24 hours, many new popular currencies and topics have appeared in the market, which may be the next opportunity to make money, including:

  • The abnormal sections are: T (Threshold);

  • The most popular tokens and topics searched by users are: SolvBTC, WBTC, Celcuis;

  • Potential airdrop opportunities include: Fuel, Elixir;

Data statistics time: August 12, 2024 4: 00 (UTC + 0)

1. Market environment

After rebounding and recovering half of its recent losses, BTC prices fell again over the weekend. In the five working days last week, BTC spot ETFs had net inflows on two days and net outflows on three days, and the overall market lacked hot spots.

The gas price on the ETH chain has fallen below 1 gwei. On the one hand, this reflects the poor overall activity on the ETH chain. On the other hand, according to historical data, many gas fee freezing periods coincide with mid-term price lows. Although the gas drop is related to the introduction of blob-based transactions in the Dencun upgrade, the decline in activity on the ETH chain is also quite obvious.

Although the market may fall again, there are two data that long-term holders should pay attention to: (1) The BTC reserves of centralized exchanges have fallen to the lowest level since November 19, 2018; (2) BTC long-term holders purchased more than 180,000 BTC during the recent market correction. This may lay the groundwork for the main upward trend in the future.

2. Wealth-making sector

1) Sector movement: T (Threshold)

main reason:

  • WBTC and BitGo are caught up in the centralization controversy, and MakerDAO has launched a proposal to shut down WBTC lending and reduce Sparks WBTC lending ratio to 0.

  • Both tBTC and WBTC are tokenized forms of Bitcoin on the Ethereum blockchain. WBTC is managed by companies such as BitGo, while tBTC uses smart contracts and a decentralized node network to ensure the exchange of Bitcoin and tBTC. Nodes need to provide collateral to mint tBTC, which is more decentralized.

Rising situation: T (Threshold) trading volume increased 6 times compared with the previous day, rising by more than 10% for two consecutive days against the trend.

Factors affecting the market outlook:

  • Whether Threshold can seize the opportunity to market, increase reporting and recognition is one of the keys to whether T can continue to rise. At the same time, BitGo CEO quickly responded to the controversy of the WBTC project and was willing to assist Maker DAO in due diligence. How Maker DAOs proposal will eventually land and how BitGos public relations and event handling results are also very important.

3. User Hot Searches

1) Popular Dapps

SolvBTC:

  • SolvBTC is the first cross-chain yield-generating Bitcoin asset launched by Solv Protocol. This token aims to provide Bitcoin holders with a stable and low-risk source of income, providing users with multiple income opportunities through integration with decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. SolvBTC supports use on multiple blockchain networks such as Ethereum, Arbitrum, BNB Chain, and Merlin Chain, and plans to expand to more blockchain networks.

  • The tokens yield is based on a diversified Delta Neutral Strategy portfolio, which is expected to provide holders with a 5-10% BTC base yield. SolvBTC will also further increase the annualized rate of return (APR) of holders by unlocking native yield opportunities and bring more economic opportunities to decentralized finance (BTCFi) in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

2) Twitter

Bitget Research Institute: Historically, the gas freezing point has coincided with the mid-term price low many times. If a second drop occurs, you can buy the bottom in batches

WBTC:

In the near term, the main risks facing WBTC stem from custody changes and trust issues related to Justin Sun. BitGo announced that it would transfer custody of WBTC to a new joint venture with BiT Global, a move that has raised concerns in the DeFi community about its decentralization and transparency. If MakerDAO cuts or cancels the use of WBTC as collateral as a result, it could lead to a massive sell-off in the market, increasing the volatility of Bitcoin prices and uncertainty in the DeFi ecosystem.

3) Google Search Region

Bitget Research Institute: Historically, the gas freezing point has coincided with the mid-term price low many times. If a second drop occurs, you can buy the bottom in batches

From a global perspective:

Celsius: Recently, the dynamics of Celsius Network have mainly revolved around its plans to exit bankruptcy proceedings and return assets to customers. Celsius has reached two key settlement agreements that enable it to end bankruptcy proceedings and return some assets to customers. These agreements include settling claims arising from allegations of management fraud and providing compensation for some crypto assets and shares in the new company to customers who have deposited in its Earn program. These settlements are expected to be implemented in early 2024.

From the hot searches in each region:

(1) Hot topics in the CIS region include Tapswap. TapSwap is a Tap2Earn Mini App that was once liked by Telegram founder Pavel Durov. It was launched at the end of 2023 and was initially released on the Solana network. It was later transferred to the TON ecosystem. The overall popularity of the project is extremely high.

(2) Latin America showed a higher interest in SOL and ETH, and AI project tracks appeared on the hot searches in Colombia and Argentina.

Potential Airdrop Opportunities

Fuel

Fuel is a UTXO-based modular execution layer that brings globally accessible scale to Ethereum. As a modular execution layer, Fuel can achieve global throughput in a way that monolithic chains cannot, while inheriting the security of Ethereum.

In September 2022, Fuel Labs successfully raised $80 million in a round of financing led by Blockchain Capital and Stratos Technologies. Multiple leading investment institutions invested, such as CoinFund, Bain Capital Crypto and TRGC.

Participation method: You can directly deposit the tokens accepted by Fuel into the points you have earned. Participants can earn 1.5 points per day for every $1 they deposit in the following assets:

Points: ETH, WET, eETH, rsETH, rETH, wbETH, USDT, USDC, USDe, sUSDe and stETH; From July 8th to 22nd, depositing ezETH will earn you 3 points per day.

Elixir

Founded in 2022, Elixir is a modular DPoS liquidity network that enables anyone to provide liquidity directly to the order book, bringing liquidity to long-tail crypto assets and allowing exchanges and protocols to bootstrap liquidity on their ledgers.

On March 12, 2024, Elixir completed an $8 million Series B financing round with a valuation of $800 million; on October 18, 2023, Elixir completed a $7.5 million Series A financing round; on January 17, 2023, Elixir completed a $2.1 million seed round of financing; investors include Hack VC, GSR, Sui, and Amber Group.

How to participate: Earn points by participating in Apothecary. You can deposit at least $100 in ETH to mint elxETH to unlock the treasure chest. elxETH is a native yield token backed by ETH at a 1:1 ratio. After the mainnet is launched, it will become a full-chain LP token to power the order book liquidity of the exchange. At the same time, you can provide liquidity to Elixir-supported protocols through https://agg.elixir.xyz/.

Original link: https://www.bitget.fit/zh-CN/research/articles/12560603814185

【Disclaimer】The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investing based on this information is at your own risk.

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