Last week, crypto assets were significantly affected by news such as concerns about the US economic recession. On March 5, the price of BTC fell slightly, rising to $92,810.64, with a maximum daily increase of 3.81%. After March 6, affected by the first White House Crypto Summit and the Federal Reserves interest rate policy, market sentiment was extremely panic, and investors had a clear short-term risk aversion sentiment. BTC prices fell accordingly, hitting a low of $77,459.91 on March 10, with a maximum weekly decline of 16.53%.
Affected by the outflow of $719 million from BTC spot ETFs last week, the BTC price K-line showed a long negative line, and the market was under heavy selling pressure. Currently, the BTC price has recovered to around $80,000, and has formed a short-term stop-loss sign at a low of around $76,606, but it is still in a downward trend and has not shown any obvious reversal signals. ETH showed an overall downward trend last week, and the current price is stable around $1,800, with the largest weekly decline of 21.97% (the above data comes from Binance spot, real-time data at 14:30 on March 11).
As Trump said in a news interview on the 9th that the economy is in a transition period, investors concerns that his policies may lead to an economic slowdown have intensified, and the three major U.S. stock indexes have suffered setbacks. As of the close of March 10, the SP 500 index fell by more than 2%, the largest single-day drop since 2022, the Nasdaq index fell by more than 4% in midday trading, the Dow Jones index fell by 1,100 points at one point, and the VIX, known as the fear index, rose sharply by nearly 20%.
Market Analysis
Crypto market under pressure, capital outflow and macro policies affect price trends
As of March 10, the crypto market has given up most of the gains after Trump announced the US crypto strategic reserve, with the total market value falling 14.7% in seven days to $2.7 trillion. Market trends are affected by multiple factors, including Trumps remarks on policies such as trade tariffs and budget cuts, and investors are concerned about the possible short-term economic impact of these policies. According to CoinShares, digital asset investment products have seen outflows for four consecutive weeks, totaling $4.75 billion, of which BTC outflowed $756 million last week, causing total assets under management (AUM) to fall to $142 billion, the lowest level since November 2024.
Under the dual influence of capital outflow and macro policies, market sentiment tended to be cautious, and the Crypto Fear Greed Index dropped to 10. As a result, BTC fell by 16.53% during the week, ETH fell below $2,000, and SOL fell by 7.2%. The liquidation scale of the derivatives market expanded. According to CoinShares data on March 10, a total of $650 million was liquidated within 24 hours, of which long positions accounted for $596 million.
Trumps remarks heightened market concerns, and both the stock and cryptocurrency markets fell
As of the close of March 10, the U.S. stock market fell sharply, with the SP 500 down 2.7%, the Nasdaq down 4%, and the Dow Jones down 2%. Technology stocks such as Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia suffered heavy losses, with Tesla down 15.4%, Apple and Nvidia down nearly 5%, reflecting investors rising concerns about a recession. The crypto market was also dragged down, with BTC falling below $80,000 and ETH falling back to $1,800, and the overall market value falling by nearly 4%.
The reason behind this downward trend is mainly due to the remarks made by Trump and US Treasury Secretary Bessant. Last week, both Bessant and Trump said that the US economy is in a transition period and did not rule out the possibility of a short-term recession.
As risk aversion heats up, US economic data and policy direction will become the key factors determining market trends in the coming months.
Signs of economic slowdown could prompt the Fed to turn dovish, boosting BTC and risk assets
The non-farm payrolls data released on March 7 showed that the U.S. added only 151,000 jobs, lower than the expected 170,000, raising market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Nexo analysts believe that a rate cut could boost global stock markets and cryptocurrency markets. However, inflation risks such as tariffs and supply chain issues may still keep the Federal Reserve cautious.
The derivatives market shows increasing bearish sentiment, especially with the increasing correlation between US stocks and BTC. QCP Capital pointed out that the key support level of BTC in the short term is $80,000, and the market is still affected by uncertainty. The Federal Reserve is expected to make a decision on interest rate cuts at its June meeting.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) to be released this week will further influence market trends.
ETH price falls below key support line as market sentiment weakens
As of March 10, ETH prices fell nearly 21% in the past week, marking the largest weekly drop since November 2022.
According to TradingView data, the price fell below the $2,100 range, which had supported it several times, and broke through a key rising trend line, indicating that buying momentum weakened and selling power prevailed. Next, ETHs support level may be near the lows of September to October 2023, which is $1,500.
Market Hotspots
Trump hosted a cryptocurrency industry summit but did not release any substantive policy documents
On March 7, US President Trump hosted the first cryptocurrency industry summit at the White House, convening representatives of regulatory agencies such as the Treasury Department and crypto industry leaders for closed-door discussions. Although the meeting claimed that it would define the direction of crypto regulation for the next four years, the event did not release any substantive policy documents.
At the summit, Trump announced that the stablecoin legislation would be postponed, with the goal of completing it before the congressional recess in August 2025, four months later than originally planned. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant also said that the government will end its regulatory crackdown on digital assets and strongly promote stablecoin policies to maintain the United States position in the global reserve currency.
However, the summit did not touch on key issues such as the SECs determination of ETHs securities attributes, the coordination mechanism of BTC reserve bills in various states, and the taxation of crypto miners. Trump and his team did not clearly announce a specific timetable or roadmap for the legal framework of the crypto industry.
Texas establishes BTC reserve fund, becoming the first government-managed cryptocurrency fund in the United States
On March 9, Texas officially passed SB 21 to formally establish the BTC Reserve Fund, becoming the first government-managed cryptocurrency fund in the United States. According to the plan, the fund will hold BTC and other top cryptocurrencies with a market value of more than $500 billion, and will be supervised and guided by a newly established advisory committee.
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