BitMart、BitMEX关停或为CEX合规、美股代币化竞争加剧影响,监管套利或细分产品为交易所主要出路

Odaily星球日报讯 针对 BitMEX、BitMart 相继关闭一事,加密研究员 Haotian 于 X 平台发文表示:“2 个交易所前后脚出事了,我看不少人还幸灾乐祸以为要有一些交易所的“暴雷”作为燃料才能驱动下一轮牛市的来临。额,确有一定熊转牛指标特征,但背后的洗牌逻辑可能跟大部分人想的不一样:

1)在整体合规趋势下,CEX 之间的竞争远比想象中要残酷,持牌、储备金证明、KYC/AML/KYT、客户资产隔离等等,这些合规问题成了交易所能否活下去的入场券。

这使得现在 CEX 的“暴雷”空间被大幅压缩,过去“一鲸落、万物生”的零和博弈逻辑也荡然无存了。所以,与其说是暴雷倒不如说面对庞大竞争压力的主动关停,这是市场良性竞争的结果;

2)CEX 在美股代币化赛道上的竞争,其实是交易所主动拓展渠道业务的战略动作,也预示着过去靠上币“费”、交易手续费等为主的平台运营模式要行不通了,而引入代币化美股、ETF、Pre-IPO 资产等传统金融资产标的,急需拓展全新的收入来源和增长场景。

但本身传统 TradFi 资产对加密原生资产的取代就是 CEX 在定价权和结算权上的旁落,短时间靠 Perps 看似可以维系交易量和收入,但长期来看,定价中心沦为通道与入口的“代价”总要面对,因此美股代币化打的越激烈代表 CEX 的存活压力越大,你看,没资格参战的基本都活不下去了;

3)眼下 CEX,尤其是中小交易所必须要找一条差异化定位才能求得生存,就像上周期小交易所靠 IEO 等优质链上资产吸引流量和用户一样,现在的活路貌似只有一条了:要么深耕特定区域牌照和本地化服务,抓监管套利的空子,要么专注有某一特定细分产品,比如 TradFi 资产、Perps、RWAFi 等,要么彻底拥抱加密原生的创新叙事,包括 DeFi、Agentic Economy、MEMEs 等用加密原生社区的力量熬过周期。无论怎样,继续同质化内卷只会加速淘汰潮,不过话说回来,出清掉一些竞争力弱的也并非坏事。”

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