Monitoring by PPP prediction market tool shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "Nvidia market cap below $4 trillion by end of 2026" has risen to 48%, up 18% in 24 hours.
According to the resolution rules, the market cap for this market is calculated based on Nvidia's official closing price during the regular trading session on the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total outstanding shares at that time, subject to official exchange data and the share count disclosed by the company. All classes of outstanding shares will be included in the calculation and adjusted according to applicable share conversion ratios.
If the final market cap falls exactly on the boundary between two prediction ranges, it will be settled according to the higher range. If Nvidia is acquired before the end of the year and ceases to exist as an independent entity after the merger, settlement will be based on the public market capitalization reached prior to the completion of the transaction, excluding acquisition or merger consideration; if Nvidia remains the surviving parent company, the resolution rules remain unchanged.
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