CLARITY法案、残り25日：8月休会前に成立しなければ、暗号資産市場はどうなる？

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng 888 )

The highly anticipated "Digital Asset Market Transparency Act" (CLARITY Act) has, unsurprisingly, been further delayed. Senator Cynthia Lummis had previously stated that negotiators expected to finalize the compromise text around July 4 (US Independence Day) and "advance it in July," but progress has clearly fallen behind schedule.

Now, with the Senate recess approaching on August 10, the remaining window is rapidly closing: the bill must clear the 60-vote threshold in the Senate (requiring at least 7 Democrats to cross party lines), be reconciled with the text from the Senate Agriculture Committee, merged with the House bill, and signed by the President—all within the next 25 working days, creating an extremely tight timeline.

If this pre-recess window is missed, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year will drop further. In fact, data from the prediction market Polymarket shows the probability of passage this year is only 40%; Galaxy Digital has also lowered its 2026 probability estimate to 50%.

1. Latest Progress Review of the CLARITY Act

The CLARITY Act is a landmark cryptocurrency market structure legislation pushed by the US Congress, aimed at clarifying the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and the CFTC, providing a non-security path for decentralized tokens, and requiring digital commodity intermediaries to register and comply with anti-money laundering obligations.

On July 17, 2025, the House passed HR 3633, proposed by French Hill, with 294 votes in favor and 134 against, including over 70 Democratic votes. On May 14, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill with a 15-9 vote (13 Republicans + 2 Democrats in support). On June 1, 2026, the CLARITY Act was officially placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar (Calendar No. 423), qualifying it for full floor consideration.

However, progress for the CLARITY Act throughout June was not smooth. On June 9, negotiations over ethical clauses concerning the President's crypto holdings broke down, directly leading some Democratic lawmakers to soften their stances or raise additional conditions, slowing the bill's progression to floor debate. On June 10, following a White House meeting with police and prosecutors' groups, the enforcement struggle over Section 604 of the "Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act" (the developer protection clause) reached an impasse; if unresolved, law enforcement groups might lobby against it, and Democratic lawmakers could vote 'no' citing insufficient consumer protection or crime-fighting measures.

Simply put, the former is a "political/ethical threshold," the latter an "enforcement/security red line." Together, they constitute the final two major obstacles before the CLARITY Act can "pass" the Senate. If unresolved, securing 60 votes and a final text becomes difficult, making it impossible to complete the legislative process before the August 10 recess. These two negotiations are the key "stumbling blocks" directly impeding the final push for the CLARITY Act, causing the July 4 target to be missed and overall progress to stall. Negotiations are still attempting a breakthrough, but time is extremely tight.

Brian Gardner, Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel, stated that for the bill to pass in 2026, "it likely needs to pass the Senate by the end of July, preferably in June," warning that the outlook would deteriorate significantly if the Senate misses the recess.

However, the market no longer holds much hope for the bill passing this year. Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn revised his prediction for the bill's passage in 2026 from 75% to 60% on June 5, citing the Senate's increasingly tight agenda. Data from the prediction market Polymarket shows the probability of passage this year is only 40%.

2. What Happens to Crypto if the CLARITY Act Fails to Pass on Time?

According to CCN's analysis, if the CLARITY Act cannot pass before the August recess, the market's most likely reaction isn't a crash, but rather a "slow bleed through premium products." In fact, crypto's poor performance throughout June already indicates that the market has begun repricing legislative uncertainty. (Odaily note: "Premium products" here primarily refer to spot ETFs.)

Data shows that throughout June, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw cumulative net outflows of approximately $4.5 billion, equivalent to about 77,000 BTC being redeemed. This is the largest single-month net outflow since the product's launch in January 2024, surpassing the previous record set in February 2025 (approx. $3.56 billion), making it the worst monthly performance on record.

In fact, XRP is likely one of the most directly and significantly affected assets by the bill's fate, as the bill would permanently codify its commodity classification, eliminating the risk of reversible institutional interpretation. Prolonged delay or failure could cause XRP to lose some of its "regulatory premium."

Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, estimates XRP's target price at $8, contingent on the Senate fully passing the relevant bill and seeing ETF inflows of $4 billion to $8 billion. JPMorgan predicts that an XRP ETF could see inflows of $4.3 billion to $8.4 billion in its first year if the bill passes. Data shows that since the launch of the XRP spot ETF in November 2025, cumulative net inflows are about $1.41 billion, with 84% from retail investors, while institutional inflows still await clear regulatory signals.

For Bitcoin, it was already classified as a commodity by the joint SEC-CFTC interpretation in March 2026. The CLARITY Act's primary role would be to permanently codify this reversible decision into federal law. Even if the bill fails or is significantly delayed, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative remains relatively robust, making it less susceptible to direct impact.

The impact on ETH is similar. Ethereum was also classified as a commodity by the joint interpretation. Failure of the bill could subject DeFi protocols to prolonged regulatory ambiguity, stifling innovation and capital inflow. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick had estimated an ETH year-end 2026 target of $7,500 (later revised down to $4,000), contingent on the bill's passage.

Kristin Smith, Executive Director of the Solana Policy Institute, stated that many asset allocators are actively exploring digital asset investments but are holding back capital due to the lack of clear regulatory guidelines. The same logic applies to institutional DeFi, where projects are currently on hold pending the release of Section 604.

3. What Lies Ahead?

Time is running out for the CLARITY Act. Several scenarios are possible:

• First, passage before the August recess: Maximum catalyst. Prices, especially for XRP and related ETFs, could see a significant rebound.
• Second, delay until 2027: The market's least desired outcome. The "slow bleed" process is prolonged, and institutional capital continues to wait and see.
• Third, failure and deferral to the next Congress: The CLARITY Act is currently in the 119th Congress. If it fails to complete Senate floor voting, reconciliation, and final passage before the August 2026 recess, the entire process cannot conclude within this Congress. Upon the start of the new Congress (120th, 2027-2028), the bill must be re-introduced and go through the entire committee review, floor debate, and all other procedures anew.

The CLARITY Act is currently in a critical "close but stuck" phase. Technically, it is on the Senate calendar, but political negotiations, the tight time window, and bipartisan support remain the biggest hurdles.

However, as First Digital CEO Vincent Chok stated: "The fact that the CLARITY Act has reached the Senate floor for a vote itself shows that the US is closer than ever to resolving regulatory ambiguity... A successful vote will accelerate this process, but failure will not necessarily stop it. In fact, a delay in the US framework could instead create a sense of urgency and extend the window for setting global standards, potentially allowing the US to become the de facto global digital asset hub."