On October 16, Bitcoin had a huge sun, piercing the previous high of the 8·18 crash, starting a new round of rising cycle, rising from 27,000 USDT to a maximum of 44,000 USDT, with a maximum cumulative increase of more than 60%.
At the same time, a mysterious address on the chain (0x 1 dbbbc 3 fd b2c 4 fabd 28 fd 9 b 84 ed 99 ceb 84 bfbec 5) has successively obtained 1.81 billion USDT from Tether since October 20, and Transfer it to compliant exchanges such as Kraken, Coinbase, OKX, etc. The operating nodes perfectly match the rising time of this round of market, and it is considered to be one of the potential engines of this round of Mavericks market.
Sky Eye data on OKLink chain (the same below)
So, what is the specific purchase situation and sales pattern of this mysterious address? Which organization might be behind it, and what kind of logic is hidden behind it? This article aims to use on-chain data analysis tools such as OKLink (on-chain Sky Eye, etc.) and Arkham to conduct in-depth exploration of this address.
50 days, 1.76 billion USDT
First of all, OKLink browser data shows that the source of the initial handling fee for this address is the 0.497 ETH transferred from the Kraken deposit address at 23:28:23 on October 20, 2023.
Then, according to statistics from Sky Eye on the OKLink chain, 22 minutes after the handling fee was transferred to the mysterious address, the original Kraken deposit address called the Tether USDT minting contract and transferred 20 USDT to the mysterious address for the first time.
Theoretically, this small minting of 20 USDT should be for the first USDT transfer test to ensure that the mysterious address is available for subsequent transfers of USDT.
Subsequently, from October 20 to December 9, the mysterious address transferred a total of 1.76 billion USDT from Tether 38 times, and transferred it to Kraken, Coinbase, OKX, Huobi and other centers 298 times. Exchange.
Among them, the Ranking of Direct Transaction Entities compiled by SkyEye on the OKLink chain shows that Kraken ranks first with 51 transactions, followed by OKX (25 transactions) and Huobi (2 transactions).
Combined with Arkham’s supplementary data, Coinbase ranks first in terms of deposit amount:
This mysterious address has deposited approximately US$1.19 billion into Coinbase, accounting for nearly 70%;
This mysterious address has deposited a total of 377 million US dollars into Kraken, accounting for about 20%;
This mysterious address has deposited a total of 101 million US dollars into OKX, accounting for about 6%;
Arkham data
The rules behind trading information
Next, we combine the Sky Eye and Arkham on the OKLink chain to analyze the hidden information behind the transaction data of this address.
Close to North American schedules and focus on working days
The 24-hour address transaction statistics chart of the OKLink chain shows that the transaction time preference of the mysterious address is from 21:00 to 5:00 Beijing time, with the highest concentration between 22:00 and 1:00.
This also coincides perfectly with the US trading time - from early November to early March, US stocks adopt winter time, and the trading time is exactly 22:30-5:00 Beijing time.
From this perspective, there is a high probability that the mysterious address is a trading institution that adopts the North American trading market routine.
At the same time, if you make statistics based on coordinates in North America, you will find that from a date perspective, all transactions happen to be concentrated during the working days from Monday to Friday, which further verifies the feasibility of this guess:
There were a total of 347 transactions, of which there were only 21 transactions on Saturday and Sunday, and as many as 326 transactions from Monday to Friday (the transactions on Saturday and Sunday do not rule out the time difference between Friday night and Monday morning).
During the same period, we should mainly buy BTC
Between October 20 and December 9, this address transferred a total of 1.76 billion BTC to the exchange via USDT, which perfectly matched the timing of the market rise - during the same period, the price of BTC rose from 27,000 USDT to a maximum of 44,000 USDT.
If the mysterious address is frequently transferred to the exchange, BTC will rise significantly in the next few days:
Taking November 7th and 8th as an example, the mysterious address transferred a total of 30 USDT to the exchange, and then BTC rose for 4 consecutive days, from 35,000 USDT to 37,300 USDT;
Taking November 28th - December 1st as an example, the mysterious address transferred a total of 55 USDT to the exchange, and then BTC rose for 5 consecutive days, from 37,700 USDT to 44,000 USDT;
But at the same time, ETH is relatively weak, and the exchange rate ratio of ETH/BTC fluctuates widely around 0.051-0.055.
Generally speaking, the move of this mysterious address perfectly matched the timing of the markets (especially) rise. After the move stopped on December 9, the market experienced a sharp drop on December 11, and has since fluctuated at a high level.
In comparison, this mysterious address can basically be determined to be one of the leaders of the spot market in this round of market. Every time it is transferred to the exchange and the market is active, the market price rises, and when it is dormant, the price fluctuates/falls.
Considering that the original Gas funding source of this address was Kraken, and the transaction counterparties were only compliance institutions such as Coinbase, OKX, and Kraken, and such a large purchase at the billion-dollar level, it is basically certain that it is not a currency circle institution, but a headquarters. Traditional institutions located in North America and need to have offices in Hong Kong and other places.
Another change on December 28
It is worth noting that on December 28, after 20 days of silence, the mysterious address finally took action again, obtaining US$50 million from Tether, and the transaction counterparties were only three institutions: Kraken, Bitgo, and Coinbase.
in:
Kraken was transferred in three transactions, with the cumulative amount reaching 13 million USDT;
There were three transfers to Bitgo, with the cumulative amount reaching 10 million USDT;
There were three transfers to Coinbase, with the cumulative amount reaching 27 million USDT;
Cumberland DRW behind it?
The AI smart label Arkham gave to the mysterious address is Cumberland DRW. Who is Cumberland DRW?
As a derivatives trading company located in Chicago, Cumberland DRW is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DRW Trading Group, with offices in Chicago, London, Singapore and Hong Kong. It also cooperates with North American Work and Rest, OKX and Huobis trading Opponents information points match.
Among them, it focuses on derivatives trading, including futures, options and other derivatives. It is also very active in cryptocurrency trading, providing trading, research and custody services to institutional clients. According to Cumberland DRW’s website, the company has approximately $10 billion in AUM.
No matter who is behind the mysterious address, the massive purchase of US$1.81 billion itself reveals an important signal, especially as the time node for superimposing spot Bitcoin ETFs is approaching, the follow-up actions will undoubtedly be of great significance.
