Original author: Haotian (X: @tmel0211 )
Let me share some opinions on the current primary and secondary markets:
1) It is meaningless to argue about the bull and bear markets at the moment. We must know that the bull and bear markets are mainly supported by the markets expected consensus, in addition to the continued ups and downs in the currency prices.
If the market unanimously believes that most projects are junk, listing coins on exchanges becomes the end of the journey, and all the good news built by the project parties are ignored, then it is undoubtedly a bear market at the moment.
A market where consensus expectations collapse is more terrifying than simply having no price performance.
2) The current Crypto environment seems to be easier than ever, but also more difficult than ever.
From the earliest ICO markets anticipated decentralized infra primary construction, to the last cycle markets upgrade and iteration around the technical narrative, to the institutional adoption of the main uptrend and the outbreak of the MEME Coin wealth effect, until finally, Cryptos expected spot ETF was finally fulfilled, and with the support of the crypto-friendly US government, compliance bills and plans are also on the way. All external factors seem to be moving in a positive direction.
But looking back at Crypto itself, which projects are truly irreplaceable? Which technical infra has the possibility of large-scale landing application? Which narratives will never be falsified? Which coins can accompany long-term growth? Or which MEMEs can sleep well overnight? ... Presumably, when thinking of these internal factors issues, most people are confused.
Obviously, if there are only positive external factors but no internal value support, the market will still be in a state of chaos. If we ignore the value tracking and focus on the irrational macro-inflation to invest, this market will be too painful, right?
3) The question is, what should we do? If there is no new innovative application of old technology projects, calling for the return of technology narratives will obviously not work. Similarly, criticizing the irrationality of the MEME market is also because it avoids the main contradiction that technology cannot be implemented. Everything is actually a systemic problem of the industry itself, and the game + internal consumption caused by long-term opacity, potential manipulation, lack of supervision, and excessive profit-seeking.
To break through, the process will certainly be painful and will take time. For example, how to reasonably value a valuable project, how to make those worthless projects lose their living ground, and how to allow some new narrative directions to continue to evolve and develop.
From another perspective, when the market speculation tide of asset abundance has passed and the market has been depressed, the opportunity for value investment will come. Even if there are many junk projects, there will always be some teams with great vision, innovation and execution, and the ability to build for the long term, right?
In fact, every cycle of the Crypto industry has had moments of excessive Fomo and pessimism and despair, but it seems that it has survived, and it always gets unexpected solutions to break the deadlock. Looking back, it has actually been making progress.
