April 2, 2025 is destined to be a critical node in the global financial market. US President Trump is expected to announce corresponding tariff measures in the Rose Garden of the White House at 3 pm on Wednesday (3:00 am the next day Beijing time).
Due to concerns about the implementation of the tariff stick, the U.S. stock market took the lead in plummeting on March 28. In recent days, technology stocks have led the decline. The market value of the seven major technology giants (including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.) has evaporated by about US$505 billion, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen by 2.95%. This is the largest single-day drop since the U.S. stock market crash on March 10, marking a drastic adjustment at the end of the first quarter of 2025.
Transmitted to the cryptocurrency circle, Bitcoin fell from $84,000 to $81,644 in 8 hours on the afternoon of March 29, a drop of more than 3%. It then rebounded to $83,536 at 18:00 on March 30, but failed to maintain the upward trend and fell to $81,565 at 6:00 on March 31. The total market value of cryptocurrencies fell from a peak of $3.9 trillion to $2.9 trillion, a drop of 25%, and the trading volume fell from $126 billion after the election on November 5 to $35 billion, a shrinkage of about 70%.
In public and private communications, Trump has touted tariffs as a win-win policy that will bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States and generate trillions of dollars in new revenue for the federal government. He has also said he made a mistake in his first term by allowing advisers to dissuade him from imposing higher tariffs, and now believes that imposing a simple, uniform rate on most imports will help avoid exemptions that weaken the tariffs.
Trump has publicly praised the benefits of import taxes, even calling tariff the most beautiful word in the dictionary, and said that the tariff policy of the 19th century brought the economic peak in American history. Some allies even envisioned pushing for April 2, the anniversary of the tax, to be made a federal holiday. Bannon, Trumps chief strategist during his first term, even said that instead of commemorating Trumps birthday, it would be better to establish Liberation Day as a national holiday to pay tribute to the jobs, skills and trade that have returned to the United States and its workers.
The most likely option is one that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant publicly proposed this month: tariffs on the 15% of countries the White House has identified as its worst trading partners, which account for almost 90% of U.S. imports. Trump has also pushed for other tariffs that would cover all countries but target specific industries. On Wednesday, he imposed a 25% tariff on all auto imports and hinted at similar measures on industries such as pharmaceuticals and lumber.
However, the market is most worried about the continued uncertainty caused by repeated policy adjustments. This blunt knife cutting meat risk is forcing traders to re-evaluate their investment logic in the second quarter. BlockBeast has compiled analysts multi-dimensional analysis from macro game, technical form, policy variables, etc., combined with long and short chip conversion signals and historical structure recurrence paths, to reveal potential trading opportunities and traps in the eye of the storm.
Macro Analysis
@OwenJin 12
1. Is VAT covered (if yes, it is negative, otherwise it is positive)
If the reciprocal tariff takes into account VAT as previously stated, then the reciprocal tariff rate would be higher than expected.
2. Is there any tariff exemption for Mexico and Canada? (Yes, it is bullish; otherwise, it is bearish)
As mentioned before, in Lutnicks tariff system, the Mexico-Canada tariff is an extension of domestic policy, and he hopes that they will cooperate to promote the internal circulation of North America, so as to promote negotiations. Mexico and Canada are the top two trading partners of the United States. If they can be exempted, the stagflation pressure will be less.
3. How does the US dollar index respond?
Tariffs trigger supply-side inflation, and supply inflation and the strength of the US dollar will produce a chemical reaction with each other - if Dxy bottoms out and rebounds, it will offset part of the tariff effect; if Dxy continues to fall, future inflationary pressure will increase.
The strength of the US dollar is an amplifier of supply-side inflation. If the US dollar appreciates, stagflation pressure will be relatively weakened.
4. Expected changes
The macro environment in Q1 was not bad, liquidity was not tight, QT slowed down, 10 y and Dxy fell. However, since February, along with the changes in policy expectations, the cryptocurrency circle has experienced several Black Mondays during the opening of US stock futures, from deepseeks valuation squeeze, to the sudden Mexican-Canadian tariff retaliation over the weekend, to recession expectation trading. Overall, there are only three changes in expectations:
① Re-inflation expectations brought about by tariffs
② Weak economic data and the Fed’s wait-and-see attitude lead to stagflation and “recession expectations”
③ Adjustment expectations for overvalued valuations in the post-epidemic era
Personally, I think that if these three expectations cannot be reversed, it will be difficult to reverse the 78,000-91,000 range priced in the previous chart. There is no concession on tariffs yet, so if it exceeds, look for divergence and do the opposite.
The bullish opportunities in 2025 may appear when the impact of tariffs is implemented + the expected reversal brought about by the tax cut bill (there is no sign of the tax cut bill yet, so just wait and see).
@Phyrex_Ni
In fact, Bitcoins risk aversion sentiment has improved a lot now. U.S. stock index futures fell after opening in the morning. This is mainly because the 2nd is coming soon. Faced with the uncertainty of tariffs, many investors chose to hedge. Currently, Nasdaq futures fell by more than 1.2%, and SP 500 futures fell by 0.75%. Investors in the Asian market ran away first.
Now the market is waiting for Trumps tariffs to be finally implemented, and what the market is most worried about is not the one-time tariffs, but Trumps repeated adjustments to tariffs, which may make the market feel more risky.
But it must be noted that an increase in difficulty does not necessarily mean a decline, because it is still event-driven. Trump may reverse again at any time, so this is the difficulty. The second quarter may be more difficult than the first quarter. Inflation, tariffs, the Feds interest rate maintenance and Japans interest rate hikes may all have an impact on the risk market. The tariffs in April will be the main reason for the increase in difficulty in the risk market. It cannot be commented on the pros and cons of tariffs in a simple sentence. It is more of a game.
@CryptoPainter_X
This is the long-term oscillation of the ASR-VC daily channel before the last bull market turned into a bear market, which is indeed somewhat similar to the current situation;
I drew a potential path for a similar structure to recur on the chart. The general idea is that if this is the final stage of the bull-to-bear transition, then we still need to wait for a final push to buy.
Still, it is not recommended to simply follow the old ways. Induction does not work well in the market, but it is still possible to understand the previous structural trends and their reasons, and apply the same logic to the present.
@qinbafrank
In my opinion, each company has subdivided the tariffs into multiple situations. The core is still the mild version and the toughest version we talked about before. Other situations are swinging between these two versions. What we need to think about for market performance is:
1) If it is the toughest version, will the days after the 2nd be the peak of uncertainty in the future? Because the toughest version will definitely trigger the most pessimistic expectations in the market and will also cause a huge impact. After that, each country will play a game with the United States, because the worst case scenario has already emerged. Any good progress in the game will boost market confidence.
2) If it is a mild version, the market should be good on that day, not as bad as everyone thinks, and confidence will naturally rise. However, the subsequent game must be repeated, so the market will stop and go after the 2nd and 3rd surges, advancing three and retreating one or two, and the repeated grinding time will also be very long.
Technical Analysis
@YSI_crypto
At present, the overall 1 H is still a falling box, but there is a short-term structural reversal in the box. Combined with the upward crossing of the indicator, we will first look back to the 83,600 area to observe whether there is continued obstruction.
The next opportunity to enter a long position has been marked in the figure, which is a rebound after a breakthrough.
@CryptosLaowai
BTC continues to decline in the short term. On the 4-hour chart, a false breakout at the 83,000 pressure level appeared to lure more buyers, but now it has fallen back. In the short-term, it is expected to form the first bottom at 79.5, and then rebound after the tariffs were implemented on Wednesday, making everyone think it is time to rise, and then the bottom of the bottom appears at 78k. The trend is shown in the figure below.
@Guilin_Chen_
1. The channel is a very weak structure. The channel exists to be broken. This is my experience.
2. If the decline from 109,000 to 76,000 is regarded as the first stage of the entire decline, it is believed that the rebound from 76,000 to date is not complete, as shown in the figure:
3. The continuous decline requires the technical indicators to be repaired.
Subjective guess:
1. What is being hyped at the moment is the inflation increase and the expectation of recession brought about by tariffs, rather than the actual recession. As I mentioned in my previous post, we should observe the price performance before the shoe drops on April 2, and look for opportunities to do the opposite when sentiment and prices reach a critical point;
2. Fact 1: The long-short conversion is now underway. The daily moving average turns downward, and MA 30, MA 60, and MA 120 form a short arrangement. Now, no matter from the technical point of view or from the macro environment, there is no possibility of a reversal to a bull market. Fact 2: If this adjustment is for the large-scale rise from 15476 to 109000, then the adjustment level will be large, and the large adjustment level must be back and forth, not all the way down. Therefore, the absence of a reversal does not mean that there is no rebound.
3. Assumption round of shipment: When there is insufficient capital at the exit and a small amount of capital can control the market trend, the cost of controlling the market by the main capital becomes lower, and pulling back and forth is conducive to raising the average price of the main capital shipment. The copycat can lie down and die, and ship at a weak position; but high-quality targets such as big cakes have the confidence to ship at high prices.
@biupa
There are two possible moves next.
The first is to drop below 81200 again, so that the indicator will show complete resonance, which can be confirmed as the bottom. The second is to start rebounding here, that is, 81200 is the bottom (although it is not as strong as the complete resonance, but the two resonances also have the phenomenon of bottoming)
Combined with the news, I think that after the tariff conclusion on April 2 comes out tomorrow, we can basically determine which direction it will go (the last drop vs. bottoming rebound). Considering that this is the first time since March 11 that the Acc indicator has turned green, it is not suitable to be completely short here anyway.
