Last week (June 24-July 1), BTC prices fluctuated between $105,000 and $107,000, and ETH spot ETFs had a net inflow of $255 million, driving prices soaring. Affected by the positive news, long-term bullish expectations for BTC and gold increased. During the week, BTC prices fluctuated between $105,000 and $107,000, with a maximum increase of 9.21%. The current price is stable around $106,751. ETH prices soared, breaking through the key resistance level of $2,500 for several short periods of time, reaching as high as $2,525. The current price has pulled back to around $2,446, with a maximum volatility of 15.4% during the week (Binance spot, July 2 at 14:20).
The three major U.S. stock indexes rose for three consecutive days, and the SP 500 broke through 6,200 points for the first time. In the first half of 2025, the U.S. stock market fluctuated due to Trumps tariff policy. The current market is gradually recovering. As of the last trading day of the first half of the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 3.64%, the SP 500 rose by 5.5%, and the Nasdaq rose by 5.48%.
Market Interpretation
ETH capital inflow resonates with ecological development, and ETH price momentum is enhanced
ETH prices rose 3.5% in 24 hours on June 30. Institutional demand is strong, and CoinShares reported that ETH spot ETFs had a net inflow of $255 million last week, and nearly $2.9 billion so far this year. At the same time, 35 million ETH are pledged on the chain, accounting for 28% of the total supply, and liquidity supply continues to decline.
Robinhood announced the development of an Arbitrum-based L2 network, which plans to support ETH staking and tokenized stocks, demonstrating its confidence in ETHs expansion prospects. ETH co-founder Buterin recently proposed a zero-knowledge proof digital identity solution to help Web3 privacy and compliance. The EthCC conference held in Cannes, France attracted more than 6,400 developers, and the industry focused on protocol innovation and application implementation.
As fiscal divergence intensifies, BTC and gold may benefit from safe-haven demand
Recently, Trump reiterated that economic growth will offset the deficit, which attracted market attention during the debate on his latest tax reform bill. BTC rose accordingly, with a 24-hour increase of 0.54% on June 30. Affected by the continued loose fiscal policy and deficit expectations, the markets attractiveness to traditional fixed-income assets such as US bonds has declined, and capital preferences have shifted to hard assets such as BTC and gold to hedge against inflation and fiscal risks.
As the controversy over the massive tax cuts and fiscal stimulus policies in the United States intensifies, the deficit continues to expand, currency depreciation and inflation expectations rise, the expected future attractiveness of gold and BTC as anti-inflation and safe-haven assets will continue to increase. Recently, the price range of BTC has fluctuated more and there are obvious signs of capital inflows, reflecting investors sensitive response to macro policy risks.
The U.S. Senate advances the Big and Beautiful bill, and crypto taxation and compliance usher in new changes
On July 1, the U.S. Senate voted 51:49 to advance the Big and Beautiful bill, which covers a number of measures such as tax cuts and fiscal spending, sparking controversy over the deficit and national debt levels. The bill proposes an amendment to tax exemption for small crypto transactions (less than $300 per transaction and $5,000 per year). If passed, it will simplify the tax process for crypto users and reduce daily compliance costs. With the advancement of the GENIUS Act, the regulatory and tax environment of the U.S. crypto industry is accelerating its transformation. Institutions expect that stablecoins and on-chain payments are expected to benefit further, and the industrys compliance trend will be strengthened.
XRP daily trading volume plummets 54%, market sentiment tends to wait and see
Ripple announced that it would abandon the cross-appeal with the SEC, and XRPL was upgraded to 2.5.0, launching a number of new features. Robinhoods launch of XRP micro-futures did not lead to a rebound in trading volume. On June 30, XRPs daily trading volume fell 54% to $1.38 billion, and the price rose slightly to $2.19. The sharp drop in trading volume reflects that investors are waiting and watching, and subsequent innovation and compliance progress will become a point of observation for activity.
Circles IPO was a mixed bag; its core value and valuation continued to attract attention
After Circle (CRCL) went public, its market value once soared to $63 billion, and its stock price rose by more than 700%, significantly higher than the actual circulation scale of its USDC. It has recently adjusted back by more than 15%. More than 95% of Circles revenue depends on USDC reserve interest, and its future performance is highly sensitive to interest rates and the total supply of USDC. USDC supply has exceeded $61 billion, and its capital efficiency is far higher than the industry average. Whether it can realize its high growth expectations still depends on market share expansion and new compliance opportunities.
Hong Kong clarifies stamp duty exemption for tokenized ETFs to support the development of the digital asset market
The Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau recently released the Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0, which proposes to promote the tokenization of multiple asset classes including precious metals, non-ferrous metals and renewable energy. The policy clearly states that the existing stamp duty exemption applicable to traditional ETFs also applies to tokenized ETFs, eliminating market concerns and facilitating future secondary market transactions in licensed digital asset platforms and other venues. This move is seen as another substantial benefit for Hong Kong to accelerate the development of the digital asset and tokenized financial product ecosystem.
Matrixports professional RWA tokenization platform Matrixdock holds a Class A financial services license from the Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department and can engage in gold and precious metal transactions in compliance with regulations. It has now launched the gold token XAUm, which can be exchanged 1:1 for LBMA-certified 99% purity physical gold bars. In the near future, Matrixdock also plans to launch tokenized products such as silver, platinum and palladium to further enrich its precious metal asset token ecosystem.
Market Hotspots
US June non-farm data will be released in advance, and holidays will affect market liquidity
Due to the Independence Day holiday, the US June non-farm payrolls report will be released ahead of schedule at 20:30 (Beijing time) on July 3 (Wednesday). On that day, the US stock market and CME stock index futures will close ahead of schedule. On July 4, the US stock market will be closed, and related futures contracts will also end trading ahead of schedule. Investors need to pay attention to the release time of data and liquidity changes, and be alert to the risks brought by market volatility and reduced liquidity during the holiday.
Mastercard joins Global Dollar Network to expand stablecoin cooperation
Mastercard announced that it has joined the Global Dollar Network (GDN), a stablecoin alliance initiated by Paxos and others. Alliance members also include well-known platforms such as Robinhood and Kraken. GDN supports members to jointly mint USDG, a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, and share interest income from reserve assets (such as US Treasury bonds). Mastercard also plans to provide support for a variety of stablecoins such as PayPals PYUSD and Fiservs FIUSD, and incorporate them into its own Mastercard Move cross-border remittance network to accelerate the application of digital currencies in the fields of payment and transfer.
Hong Kongs Stablecoin Ordinance is about to take effect, strengthening financial efficiency and risk prevention
The Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance will take effect on August 1, 2025. All companies that issue or provide stablecoins pegged to fiat currencies in Hong Kong must obtain a license, 100% high-liquidity asset reserves, 1:1 payment and real-time redemption, and strengthen anti-money laundering and transparency supervision. Hong Kong strives to strike a balance between innovation and risk prevention and control, and steadily upgrades to an international digital financial hub.
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, and other countries or regions where such offers or solicitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
