Recently, the market has been positive. The US debt ceiling has been raised significantly, and the national debt balance has surged. Trump has publicly stated that he does not rule out the possibility of firing Powell who refuses to cut interest rates. The US stablecoin bill has made substantial progress. At the same time, the latest inflation data is lower than expected. Positive factors such as major US policy adjustments, fiscal dynamics and macroeconomic factors are still continuing to ferment, and BTC has strongly entered a new trading range. However, it should be noted that the BTC price is approaching the upward boundary, and the technical side shows that the market may enter a consolidation period in the next one or two months.
$122,000 is the key price of BTC at this stage
Historical data shows that in the past 18 months, BTCs trend has roughly followed the rule of every $16,000 is a step: $106,000 formed a clear resistance in the first quarter, and then became a key support in the second quarter. According to this logic, the next key price may be $122,000. Although BTC has briefly touched this point recently, it has fallen back slightly, indicating that the market may enter a phased consolidation to accumulate momentum for the next round of trends.
Although choosing to stop profit in a bull market always carries the risk of missing out on further gains, considering that BTC may enter a summer consolidation period and the next round of macro catalysts (such as the Feds interest rate cut) is still unclear, it is still a rational choice to moderately lock in profits. From the data, BTC is currently overbought, the RSI has broken through 70, and a number of reversal signals have begun to show signs of falling back. Technically, the $106,000-$108,000 range may become a key support level. Ideally, BTC will step back to this support area and launch an upward offensive again after completing the momentum repair.
The US economy is better than expected, and the Federal Reserve may pave the way for a rate cut in September
The CPI data contradicted the forecasts of Fed officials and Wall Street economists, rising only slightly from 2.8% in April to 2.9% in July. The market had expected that Trumps tariff policy would trigger a sharp surge in inflation. In the past five inflation data releases, the core CPI only met expectations once, and the other four were lower than expected. Market concerns about inflation may be exaggerated.
The current market sentiment generally believes that the Fed will not directly announce a rate cut at the meeting on July 30, but it is not ruled out that it may begin to release signals to pave the way for a rate cut in September. Although Trump continues to put pressure on and criticize the Fed for inaction, judging from the current economic data, the Fed has no sufficient reason to relax its policy: the inflation level is still higher than the target level of 2.0%, and even against the backdrop of a new round of tariffs, the overall performance of the US economy continues to be better than expected.
Disclaimer: The market is risky and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and unstable. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
