Polymarket odds of "BTC dropping to $80,000 in the remainder of October" hit 63%, up 13% in a single week

Odaily reports: Crypto trader Killa posted that the most ideal path for Bitcoin (BTC) would be to continue rising before the US midterm elections, building a bullish narrative and breaking previous highs, then experiencing a pullback after the elections as has occurred in historical cycles — but this time the pullback may not form a new cycle low, instead establishing a higher low.Killa stated that if BTC declines before the midterm elections, he believes the market is more likely to rebound to around $95,000 after the elections. The market has already seen nearly $2 billion in long positions liquidated, and there are only about 3 weeks remaining until the US midterm elections. The market may currently be experiencing a "maximum pain" scenario: after some market narratives have already been broken, BTC rebounds before the elections, then reverses course to pressure traders on the other side, ultimately leading the market to re-deleverage risk.Killa pointed out that in the past 4 US midterm elections, 3 saw declines within 1-2 months after the elections, with historical samples showing a probability of approximately 75%. However, he said he still holds a 10x BTC long position, as well as long positions previously established at $62,600 and $76,400, none of which have been reduced.

Odaily News: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that U.S. President Trump does not expect any military conflict before the midterm elections. Diesel transactions with Russia are beneficial to Americans, and we will use all legal authorities to conduct diesel transactions with Russia. (Sina Finance)

According to Coinglass monitoring, a whale recently placed a buy order worth $22.89 million on the Binance spot market at an order price of $82,975. The size of this buy order is considered one of the larger spot buy orders in the recent market, indicating that some large capital is positioning in this price range.

1. Analyst: ETH short-term target of $2,640, forming an "Adam and Eve bottom" pattern;2. South Korean stock market trading volume plunges 70% from late-May peak, with foreign capital withdrawing and local retail investors exiting;3. US Treasury Secretary Bessent rebuts Warren: bond buyback plan is not "unprecedented";4. SpaceXAI official account renamed to "SpaceXSI";5. Microsoft CEO: The era of superintelligence requires a "controllable" architecture, and responsibility cannot be outsourced to AI;6. Analysis: ETH 24-hour trading volume on Hyperliquid surpasses BTC, possibly influenced by PaperTrade pricing mechanism;7. Bonk Guy: USELESS trading volume approaches DOGE, but market cap differs by approximately 72x;8. Analyst discloses over 20 suspected high-risk Ledger resellers, urging users to pay attention;9. Microsoft CEO: The era of superintelligence requires a "controllable" architecture, and responsibility cannot be outsourced to AI;10. Sepcter: Ledger incident attacker has transferred 2,990 ETH to Tornado Cash.

Odaily News: According to on-chain detective Specter's monitoring, between October 9 and 10, attacker addresses associated with the CryptoBilis Ledger hardware wallet incident deposited 2,990.3 ETH, worth approximately $7.45 million, into Tornado Cash.Monitoring shows that the attacker had previously withdrawn funds to 14 addresses, then bridged them cross-chain to ZEC via NEAR Intents and conducted privacy-enhancing processing. Specter stated that the attacker partially reused previous deposit addresses to submit withdrawal transactions, while some other withdrawal transactions were initiated by wallets linked to addresses that paid gas fees during the fund theft, thereby linking the deposits to the withdrawal activity.Currently, the attacker is still continuously moving and concealing the related funds. The previous CryptoBilis incident involved supply chain risks related to Ledger hardware wallets. Ledger has stated that it is investigating and has reminded affected users to pay attention to device security.

Monitoring by PPP prediction market tool shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "BTC dropping to $80,000 in the remainder of October" has hit 63%, up 13% in a single week.According to the settlement rules, this market is based on the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Within the specified month in the title (from 00:00 on the 1st of the month to 23:59 on the last day, Eastern Time), if the high price of any 1-minute candlestick is equal to or above the price specified in the title, it will immediately settle as Yes; otherwise, it will be No. This market is based solely on the High price of Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candlesticks; prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are not taken into account.Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.