Analysis: As U.S. Midterm Elections Approach, Democrats' "Red to Blue" Late-Stage Expansion Efforts Repeatedly Fall Short
Odaily reports: As U.S. midterm elections approach, House Democrats are pushing into increasingly red-leaning districts. Historical experience shows that even under favorable cycles, these late-stage expansion efforts are typically ineffective.
According to a POLITICO analysis, since 2018, Democrats have failed to flip a single Republican-held seat that was added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) "Red to Blue" program list in September or October just before Election Day.
Of the 28 candidates added to the list in the final two months of the campaign between 2018 and 2024, only 3 Democrats won—and all of those victories were for open seats already held by Democrats. This win rate is far below the average for the "Red to Blue" program. Of the 203 candidates included in the program over the past four election cycles, 73 successfully captured opponent-held seats.

