Odaily reports: Following the release of U.S. October inflation data, according to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in December remains 0%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 84.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 15.3% (previously 1.1%).For the Fed's January meeting next year, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 43.9%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 48.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate hike is 7.4%.

Odaily reports: Before the release of U.S. October inflation data, according to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in December is 0%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 98.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 1.1%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by January next year is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 64.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 34.8%.

Odaily News: In early trading on Wednesday, Asian tech stocks broadly declined. Preliminary US midterm election results show Democrats performing strongly, further reinforcing market bets on a sweeping Democratic victory. Investors worry this could slow AI investment flowing into Asia's tech-intensive markets.Chris Weston, Head of Research at Pepperstone, said: "The final margin of a Democratic victory, or an unexpected Republican win of the Senate, could both trigger large-scale position adjustments in the market." US futures linked to the Nasdaq index fell further, dropping about 1.5% on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

Odaily reports: CME Group data shows that average daily volume in October 2026 reached a record 30 million contracts, up 15% year-over-year compared with October 2025 and surpassing the previous record of 26.3 million contracts. Among this, cryptocurrency contracts averaged 145,000 contracts per day, with a notional value of approximately $7.85 billion. Among other major asset classes, interest rate products averaged 14.8 million contracts per day, equity index products 8.8 million contracts, energy products 2.7 million contracts, and agricultural products 2.1 million contracts. Overall, the data shows that derivatives trading activity across multiple asset classes on CME increased in October. (PRNewswire)

Odaily reports that research firm Decentralised.co (DCo) has released a report stating that the share of non-crypto asset trading volume on Hyperliquid rose from zero in September 2025 to a peak of 51% in July 2026, and stood at approximately 30% in October 2026; on October 27, such trading accounted for 40% of the platform's $7.2 billion in daily trading volume, with single stocks being the largest trading category that day.The report uses a 2029 global futures and equities market size of $934 trillion as its base, with the base-case scenario assuming crypto trading volume grows to 3 times the current level, a 3% share of the non-crypto market, a blended fee rate of 0.006%, USDC yield falling to 3.6%, and HIP-4 contributing $100 million in revenue; on this basis, it estimates that 2029 revenue will rise from $944 million to $4.91 billion, corresponding to an HYPE price of $128 at a 40x valuation, $98 at a 30x valuation, and $165 under the optimistic scenario, with the current HYPE price at approximately $77. The report states that if the non-crypto fee rate falls to CME's 0.0004%, the base valuation would drop to $66; Binance has already listed 229 TradFi perpetual contracts this year, with average daily trading volume of $13.4 billion, higher than Hyperliquid's $2.3 billion.

Odaily reports: Bitcoin rose about 0.8% since midnight (UTC) on Monday to $81,400, after briefly falling below $80,000. Ethereum gained 0.9%, Asian chip stocks led a tech rebound, South Korea's KOSPI rose 6.6%, SK Hynix climbed about 11% on roughly 7x year-over-year profit growth, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%.The Federal Reserve is about to announce its rate decision, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the market sees about a 92% probability of rates being held steady. Traders will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to gauge whether there is any possibility of a rate hike ahead. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $176 million on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive trading day of inflows.On the derivatives side, crypto futures trading volume rose 7.5% over the past 24 hours to $163.2 billion, open interest increased only 1.3%, and liquidations rose 38% to $183.6 million. Bitcoin rose 2.3% while open interest actually fell 0.1%; Ethereum rose 2.7% with open interest up 1.7%, indicating the price rebound has not yet been accompanied by large-scale new leverage. ZEC open interest grew 14%, higher than its 6.3% price gain over the same period, making it one of the large crypto assets with the most obvious new position building.In the options market, Deribit data shows that Bitcoin's one-week put/call skew has dropped from nearly 10% a week ago to less than 1%, indicating that demand for short-term downside protection has weakened somewhat, though the one-month, three-month and six-month tenors remain clearly skewed toward puts. Meanwhile, gold futures open interest fell 10%, while open interest for Tether's gold token XAUT rose 11.6%, showing divergent capital flows. (CoinDesk)

Odaily reports: CF Benchmarks, the index provider under Kraken's parent company Payward, has launched CFB Oracle, bringing pricing benchmarks for BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF and CME Group cryptocurrency futures into blockchain applications. The service provides benchmark data across cryptocurrency, equities, bonds, commodities, and forex markets, enabling developers to build products such as on-chain index funds, tokenized portfolios, and derivatives.CF Benchmarks states that its indices currently serve products representing over $120 billion in assets. CFB Oracle now supports Ethereum, HyperEVM, and Robinhood Chain, with plans to expand to other compatible networks in the future. Payward also plans to use the service to provide pricing data for its upcoming U.S. perpetual contract product, which is still awaiting regulatory approval. The service will compete with oracle providers such as Chainlink and Pyth. (CoinDesk)

Odaily reports: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting concluding this Thursday, even though the latest inflation data and economic performance still support further rate hikes. How Fed Chair Kevin Warsh explains the rationale for the pause, and whether he hints at resuming rate hikes in December, will be the market's focus.The Fed unanimously decided in September to raise rates by 25 basis points, lifting the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Economic data released since then has not shown a clear easing of inflation pressures, but multiple officials have signaled that back-to-back rate hikes are unnecessary, fueling market expectations of a pause in October and another move in December.The market widely expects rates to remain unchanged at this meeting. According to prior CME data, as of early this week, interest rate futures traders had lowered the probability of another 25 basis point hike in October to below 10%, while about three-quarters of traders expected at least one more rate hike before year-end.

Odaily Report: Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Tuesday, down about 0.4% since UTC midnight and touching a low of around $79,700. Ethereum dropped 0.5%, while the DeFi index fell 1.8%, the largest decline among CoinDesk-tracked indices. Meanwhile, South Korea's KOSPI rose 3.1% as Asian tech stocks strengthened, but the crypto market failed to follow the rebound.On the macro front, the Federal Reserve will begin its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and announce its rate decision on Wednesday. CME FedWatch data shows the market sees about a 90% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, with traders watching whether there is still any chance of a rate hike this year.In the options market, the $72,000 put expiring December 25 was the most-traded Bitcoin option over the past 24 hours, and the 25 Delta put/call skew for Bitcoin options across maturities is positive, indicating the market still has demand for downside protection. (CoinDesk)

Odaily reports: Brazilian President Lula won a fourth presidential term with 51.8% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election. The election result came as a surprise to the market, and Brazilian stocks, bonds, and the real exchange rate are facing selling pressure.Early trading indications showed that perpetual contracts linked to the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) on Hyperliquid fell as much as 27%, while real currency derivative contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) indicated that the real could weaken to 5.55 per dollar, implying a decline of more than 10% from last Friday's closing level. Brazilian domestic trading institutions warned that selling pressure after the market opens could trigger circuit breaker mechanisms.Previously, the market widely bet on a Bolsonaro victory, and Brazilian assets rebounded sharply after the first round of voting. Now that the election result has reversed, related trades face liquidation pressure. Analysts noted that the market may reassess Brazil's fiscal outlook, interest rate trajectory, and exchange rate risks in the short term, and that continued escalation of political disputes could further amplify asset volatility. (Bloomberg)