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Arthur Hayes: AI Giants May Face Severe Share Dilution After IPO, Credit Contraction Could Further Hit Crypto Market

Odaily reports: Arthur Hayes has published an article titled "D is for Dilution," warning that SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could face massive share lockup expirations and dilution pressure after going public, which would push down stock prices, weaken their fundraising capacity, and transmit risk throughout the entire AI industry chain via the credit market.

Based on relevant share lockup schedules, Hayes estimates that SpaceX could add approximately 8.6 billion newly circulating shares by June 2027, equivalent to roughly a 50% increase in share supply; Anthropic's initial IPO investors could face dilution of up to 83% over the same period. Hayes believes that continued weakness in AI giant stock prices could prompt bond investors to demand higher yields, driving up corporate financing costs and potentially triggering a contraction in the AI-related credit market. Since banks are deeply involved in the AI investment cycle through lending, securities financing, and proprietary trading, once AI financing demand cools, bank balance sheet expansion could also slow or even contract, thereby reducing dollar liquidity and putting pressure on Bitcoin and the crypto market.

However, Hayes also noted that if the AI bubble ultimately triggers a financial crisis, major global central banks and fiscal authorities will intervene by expanding money supply and providing liquidity, at which point the newly created liquidity could once again drive Bitcoin and crypto assets higher.

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Odaily reports: Arthur Hayes has published an article titled "D is for Dilution," warning that SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could face massive share lockup expirations and dilution pressure after going public, which would push down stock prices, weaken their fundraising capacity, and transmit risk throughout the entire AI industry chain via the credit market.Based on relevant share lockup schedules, Hayes estimates that SpaceX could add approximately 8.6 billion newly circulating shares by June 2027, equivalent to roughly a 50% increase in share supply; Anthropic's initial IPO investors could face dilution of up to 83% over the same period. Hayes believes that continued weakness in AI giant stock prices could prompt bond investors to demand higher yields, driving up corporate financing costs and potentially triggering a contraction in the AI-related credit market. Since banks are deeply involved in the AI investment cycle through lending, securities financing, and proprietary trading, once AI financing demand cools, bank balance sheet expansion could also slow or even contract, thereby reducing dollar liquidity and putting pressure on Bitcoin and the crypto market.However, Hayes also noted that if the AI bubble ultimately triggers a financial crisis, major global central banks and fiscal authorities will intervene by expanding money supply and providing liquidity, at which point the newly created liquidity could once again drive Bitcoin and crypto assets higher.
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