2019 Q1 Dapp Market Analysis Report: Gambling Dapps are Insufficient in Pulling New Capabilities and Sustainability Is Doubtful

Blockchain Chiefs, together with Rating Dapp and RatingToken, released the "2019 Q1 Dapp Market Analysis Report". The well-known lottery and game Dapps have a large number of users and a large number of transactions. This analysis found that these two categories of Dapps not only have serious competition, but also each Dapp in the EOS/ETH lottery game category generally has the ability to attract new users in the first quarter. insufficient. Market exchange Dapps have benefited from the correction of the digital currency market, and popular trading Dapps have excellent overall ability to attract new users. In 2019Q1, the number of new users of the gambling Dapp BetDice continued to decrease, and fell to triple digits in March, indicating that the gambling Dapp has problems in attracting new users and its sustainable growth is doubtful.

1. Macro trends

1.1 EOS monopolizes half of popular Dapps

In 2019Q1, there were a total of 324 popular Dapps with more than 10,000 transactions, of which 183 were on the EOS public chain, accounting for about 56.48%.

1.2 The number of popular Dapps increases every month, and EOS popular Dapps continue to be active for longer

The number of popular Dapps with more than 10,000 transactions in January 2019 showed a trend of increasing month by month, and the monthly popular Dapp market share of the EOS public chain has remained above 58%. In addition, the number of popular Dapps with more than 10,000 monthly transactions in TRON fell by 36.62% in February, and the number dropped significantly to 45. Although there was a slight rebound in March, it still did not reach the high value of 71 in January. The reason is that the number of monthly transactions of popular Dapps on EOS is relatively stable, and Dapps continue to be active for a longer period of time than TRON.

1.3 Dapp is in the early stage of development, and the number of transactions is concentrated below one million

The number of popular Dapp transactions in the first quarter was mainly concentrated below 100,000 transactions. Among them, the market share of popular Dapps with transactions below 100,000 transactions was relatively close to that of EOS, ETH, and TRON. With the increase in the number of popular Dapp transactions, the oligopoly phenomenon of EOS is highlighted. Among them, for Dapps with transactions between 1 million and 10 million, EOS is 4 times that of TRON, while ETH has no Dapps with more than one million transactions.There are only 9 Dapps with more than tens of millions of transactions, and they have not yet broken through double digits. Compared with apps with tens of millions of active users in the traditional Internet market, Dapp is still in the early stages of development.

1.4 The cumulative number of new users of each popular Dapp in a single month is approaching 700,000

The number of monthly transactions of popular Dapps fluctuates greatly, with a 30% increase or decrease at every turn. Among them, the 107 million transactions in February decreased by about 33.13% compared with the 160 million transactions in January, and the 142 million transactions in March increased by 32.71% compared with February. The cumulative growth rate of new users of popular Dapps in the first quarter remained above 20%, and the number of new users in a single month approached 700,000. Among them, 45.82w in February increased by 21.31% compared with 37.77w in January, and 69.15w in March increased by about 50.92% compared with February.

2. Classification analysis

2.1 New users of TRON’s popular Dapp tend to be seriously deformed

The new users of various types of popular Dapps on EOS, ETH, and TRON have their own advantages and disadvantages. ETH excludes popular social Dapps, and the drainage of other popular Dapps is relatively balanced. New users of popular EOS lottery Dapps accounted for more than 53% of the total new users of popular Dapps in the first quarter of EOS. The two types of popular Dapps, lottery and games, accounted for more than 65% of the total number of new users of popular Dapps in the first quarter of EOS, while ETH only accounted for 31.18%.The new users of TRON’s popular Dapps are mainly in the lottery and game markets. The total number of new users of these two types of popular Dapps is 70.84 million, accounting for nearly 87% of the total number of new users of TRON’s popular Dapps in the first quarter. Users tend to be severely deformed.

2.2 The average number of new users per Dapp in the first quarter of EOS/ETH lottery games is generally less than 3,000

Compared with the new users of various types of DAPP in 2019Q1, it is found that the average number of new users brought by each type of popular Dapp is generally less than 3,000, and the promotion and popularization of Dapp is progressing slowly. Everyone is familiar with lottery and game Dapps with a large number of transactions and huge number of users. Not only is the competition serious, but the number of new users is not satisfactory. Except for TRON, the average number of new users per EOS/ETH lottery game Dapp in the first quarter is The number of additional users is generally less than 3000.

Although there are as many as 120 popular lottery Dapps on EOS, and the second most popular game Dapps are 27, but the average number of new users brought by each of these two types of popular Dapps is less than 3,000. The best effect on EOS is 18 other popular Dapps, and each popular Dapp brings an average of 8038 new users.

The average number of new users brought by the lottery, game and market Dapps on TRON is 8338, 22677 and 8814 respectively, which is also the best diversion effect on the three public chains. The number of popular risk Dapps is the second largest type on TRON, but 20 Dapps only brought in 4.27 million new users. On average, each popular Dapp only brought in 2135 new users, which is less than 3000.

Among popular Dapps in the market, ETH has the most new users with an average of more than 6,000, while EOS/TRON has an average of more than 3,000 new users. This is because exchange Dapps are classified into this category. Due to the correction of digital currency prices after the year, trading users have rebounded, and this independent type of popular Dapps has brought an average of more than 3,000 new users.

Social Dapps are less competitive. In the first quarter, except for Murmur, Sense Chat, and Discussions on EOS, there were no Dapps with more than 10,000 transactions.

3. Popular analysis

Phenomenon-level popular Dapp has entered the era of yellow gambling, and the sustainability of gambling Dapp is doubtful

In the first quarter of 2019, the number of newly launched DappTOP 10 transactions was at least 224.5w, of which 6 were gambling and 1 was pornography. Phenomenon-level new Dapps generally come from the yellow gambling category.

HASH BABY is another kind of pornographic image Dapp. It is going to be a pornographic image website that uses sharing and mining. Users can upload small pornographic images and get likes to realize mining. The earliest transaction time of HASH BABY was January 10, 2019. The number of transactions in February was only 538. By March, it became a Dapp with tens of millions of transactions. The number of new users also exploded from 15 to 8.14w. Successfully occupied the top spot in the list of newly launched Dapps in 2019Q1.

Compared with the simple and rough behavior of obtaining traffic and transactions of pornographic Dapp, gambling Dapp has made "innovation" in gameplay.

Take TRONbet and BetDice as examples. They are all lottery gambling Dapps, and the earliest transactions were on October 13, 2018 and September 20, 2018, respectively. TRONbet, BetDice and other dice-rolling gambling Dapps all use hash value, which is the classic betting game in the industry. There are two main ways to play it, one is dice betting, and the other is mining.

When you click the dice roll button, a transaction transfer to the TRON/EOS network will be initiated, and each transaction will generate a fixed hash value. The game will take the last 2 digits of the hash value. If the number is greater than ( or less than) the number set before the game starts, you win and get the corresponding odds. Of course, the winning rate and the odds are corresponding, and you can adjust it yourself before starting the gambling game. These "innovative" gambling methods do not deviate from the Kelly formula and the law of large numbers hidden in the gaming industry. Under rational circumstances, each time you participate with a fixed winning rate and odds, your funds will increase getting closer to 0. If you irrationally participate in gambling Dapp, it may be possible to lose money.

In the first quarter of 2019, the number of transactions of TRONbet and BetDice both exceeded 40 million, and the official website traffic exceeded 100,000. Among them, the traffic on TRONbet official website reached an astonishing 500,000, and the number of new users exceeded 20,000. On the other hand, the number of new users of BetDice in February and March continued to decrease, from 2075 in January to 928, indicating that gambling Dapps have problems in attracting new users and their sustainable growth is doubtful. Compared with pornographic Dapps, the continuous growth of gambling Dapps requires a steady stream of new users or users' unlimited capital investment. In addition, countries and regions around the world have strong restrictions or prohibitions on gambling, which is also doomed to gambling Dapps. It is difficult to become a profitable product with tens of millions of active users.

Appendix: 2019Q1 ETH/EOS/TRON DAPP Ranking Top50

1. The above data does not filter the same user’s new attempts in different types or different Dapps, and there may be the same superimposed effect as in the APP market, so new users/number of new users is the number of new users.

2. Popular Dapps refer to Dapps with more than 10,000 transactions.

Disclaimer:

Disclaimer:

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