The BTC market soared and fell back, pay attention to the rebound of LTC and EOS in the short term
In the recent cryptocurrency market, there are not too heavy news and hot spots, and the whole is relatively quiet. However, there are still a few pieces of news worthy of our attention.
1. U.S. exchange supervision: Huobi’s announcement shows that in view of U.S. laws and regulations on encrypted assets, Huobi’s user agreement clearly prohibits U.S. users from using Huobi’s platform, and Huobi will freeze all exchanges from November 13, 2019. US user account. Coincidentally, the US-based cryptocurrency exchange Poloniex also closed its trading services for US customers last week (November 1).
Behind the news, it reflects theU.S. regulators have strengthened the supervision of exchanges in their territory, and are gradually cleaning up exchanges that have not obtained licenses, or exchanges that serve U.S. customers without compliance.On the one hand, the purpose is to supervise the existing exchanges, standardize the market, and clear obstacles for the exchanges that will be supported later. On the other hand, it is actually to tax digital currency transactions.
2. Stablecoin regulation: The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) said on Monday that existing securities rules may apply to and benefit "stablecoin" digital currency schemes, such as Facebook's Libra project, and policymakers are studying whether new ones are needed. regulatory requirements. Previously, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) used the special form in the "Plenary Report" toClearly characterizes stablecoins as a “global risk” in terms of money laundering”。
The domestic central bank digital currency is also imminent, and the United States and some European countries are also exploring the possibility of central bank digital currency issuance.It is bound to have an impact on the existing stable currency market, and the supervision is obvious.
3、The influence of the good news of a single project on the currency price is gradually weakening: Recently, the domestic public chain project NAS destroyed 35 million tokens (35% of the total supply), and the XLM project just announced the destruction of 55 billion tokens (50% of the total supply).
If it is placed before, the project party destroys tokens (repurchase destruction or direct destruction), which will generally lead to a relatively large increase in the currency price in a short period of time.This year's platform currency market, in addition to the IEO concept, repurchase and burning also contributed a considerable increase.
However, since August, the power of this good news has gradually weakened. Recently, NAS and XLM destroyed a large number of tokens, which did not promote a sharp rise in currency prices, which clearly shows the choice of investors. We need to be vigilant about this,The currency speculation logic of "token destruction = = currency price surge" has failed, and it is necessary to change the thinking。
4、The madness of retail investors in the futures contract market: Bloomberg previously reported that the trading volume of encrypted futures accounts for nearly 50% of the value of spot transactions in the encrypted market. With the overall market maintaining a shrinking trend, the trading volume of futures contracts has increased significantly.
I saw the data of Coin last night. Half an hour before and after 23:00 on November 4th, EOS rose by less than 3%, and the liquidation exceeded 9.82 million USDT; half an hour before 18:30 on November 3rd, the liquidation amounted to 12.8 million USDT, and BTC exploded. 12.23 million USDT was withdrawn, a decrease of 1% over the same period.
The 1-3% rise and fall of mainstream currencies can generate so many liquidation orders, which only shows one,Everyone uses high leverage to play contracts, and there are many people with 20, 50, and 100 times, which is no different from gambling. For most retail players, entering the market with high leverage to make money without knowing the rules of the contract is doomed to be out of the game.
Operation suggestion:
Operation suggestion:
BTC: hourly line level, rebounded in heavy volume early this morning, fell after hitting 9,500 US dollars, consolidated in the 9,300-9,500 US dollar range in the morning, but began to fall in heavy volume in the afternoon, not only recovered the gains in the early morning, but also returned to the 9,000-9,300 US dollar range Organize the trend. Consistent with the previous approach,The short-term bulls rose slightly and were attacked by the shorts, and then the market fell。
We shorten the K-line level to 5 minutes to observe the volume-price relationship when the currency price rises and falls. The rise in the early morning and the plunge in the afternoon both ended the battle within 5 minutes.The trend of the dealer is extremely fierce. Such a move in the spot market is obviously abnormal, and it can only be attributed to bursting short/long positions in the futures market, The ratio of the number of BTC long-short positions has also dropped from 1.7 yesterday to today's lowest 1.38, and the positions of retail investors have been perfectly harvested in this way.
Now that we understand the short-term operation methods of market makers, we can only judge from the longer-term trend in order to understand the market trend.At the 4-hour level, the trend of BTC is clear at a glance, and the trend of shrinking at a high level has not gone out of the shock range. The trading volume is shrinking. The MACD column and the DIF and DEA moving averages are all organized around the 0 axis, which means that the consolidation trend will continue. Therefore, the overall situation is still to wait and see, and continue to pay attention to the breakthrough of support (8800-9000 US dollars) / pressure (9500 small pressure level, 9800-10000 US dollar strong pressure level).
ETH: The hourly level rebounded slightly, but the overall trend followed the market in a circular arc. The short-term currency price fell slightly. The bottom support was 180 US dollars, the upper pressure was 190 US dollars, and the strong pressure was 200 US dollars. Continue to hold the currency.
LTC: It rebounded in large volume last night, successfully bringing about a small rebound trend of mainstream currencies. Different from the BTC market’s skyrocketing and falling trend within a few minutes, LTC’s bullish power is relatively strong, and it is a continuous pull-up. At present, it has broken through the pressure of 60 US dollars. The follow-up volume can be superimposed, and it is hoped that it will go up to 70-80 US dollars. interval.
BCH: maintain a sideways trend in the short term. The range and volume of the rise and fall are weak. In the short term, it is mainly on the sidelines. Focus on Bitmain’s internal power struggle and IPO news. The currency price may be affected by it. In the short term The support is $280, and the strong pressure above is $300.
EOS: Last night and LTC were the leading currencies, and the short-term rebound can be strong. The support of 3.4 US dollars is not broken, and there is a probability of rebounding to the pressure range of 3.8-4 US dollars.
XRP: The trend is in sync with the broader market. After a short-term rebound to $0.3, the currency price fell back and fell, and the overall trend is still in the range of $0.28-0.3. We will consider it after the market stabilizes at $0.3.
ETC: Following the trend of the broader market, short-term currency prices first rose and then fell, and the trading volume can be adjusted upwards and downsizing, continuing to fluctuate in the range of 4.8-5 US dollars. After the disk needs to stand firm at $5 and the MA60 daily moving average support, there will be a new market.
Platform currency: The overall shrinking trend is not very good. BNB maintains a consolidation trend in the range of 19-21 US dollars, HT consolidates in the range of 3.8-4 US dollars, OKB is concerned about whether it can stand firm at 3.3 US dollars in the short term, and there is a certain risk in the lack of sustainability of the volume; GT consolidates around the MA60 daily moving average in a short period of time , the volume performance is inactive.
Altcoins: The overall trend is still not good, and we will continue to wait and see in the short term. The domestic public chain currency maintains a consolidation trend at the daily level. In the absence of an obvious drop, we will continue to hold the currency as the main currency and wait for the follow-up opportunity (during the Wuzhen Conference this week, there may be some performance ).
