A. Market Perspective:
I. Macro Liquidity
Tightening monetary liquidity. The resilience of the US economy continues to show, and the market expects the Fed's interest rate hike in July to be nailed down and be the last one. The US stock market continues to perform strongly, hitting a 15-month high. The US dollar index continues to decline, quickly breaking below the 100 level, which is positive for the capital market. The performance of the cryptocurrency market is weaker than that of the US stock market, and it continues to consolidate.
II. Overall Market Conditions
Top 100 market cap gainers:
Market weakened this week. The US may sell some confiscated Silk Road BTC. After the resolution of the XRP case last week, the market has changed, and altcoins have taken the lead for the first time in a long time. Altcoins with behind-the-scenes manipulations have relatively higher gains. The market hotspots are the ETH Cancun upgrade and robots.
OP: Under market speculation, the ETH CanCun upgrade in the second half of the year is favorable for L 2. OP has had multiple catalysts recently, including Coinbase's base chain in August (based on OP), BNB's L 2 (based on OP), CELO's transformation to L 2 (based on OP), and World Coin bringing in new users. However, this year is a big year for OP's unlocked release, and it is expected that the circulation of chips will increase by 50%. Top projects in OP's ecosystem, such as VELO and SNX, have also performed well.
UNIBOT: Coingecko has created a new section for trading bot plugins, with UNIBOT being the largest market cap leader. UNIBOT is a trading bot for speculative altcoins, capable of trading altcoins at the fastest speed, primarily benefiting from the meme hype. Revenue mainly comes from transaction fees, with a rebate marketing mechanism. Since its listing in May, it has generated revenue of approximately 3 million USD in two months, with an annualized revenue of approximately 20 million USD and a market cap of 80 million USD.
RLB: Betting platform token RLB has risen 70 times since the beginning of this year. Established in February 2020, it was originally on the SOL chain and has now added the ETH chain. 20% of the daily betting profits will enter the prize pool, which requires staking RLB for lottery draws, with a 0.2% fee each time. Currently, it has entered a deflationary mechanism. RLB has generated revenue of 50-100 thousand USD in the past week, with an annualized revenue of approximately 150-300 million USD, far higher than most Defi projects.
3. BTC Market
1) On-chain data
BTC is consolidating near the breakeven point. In the cycle from 2021 till now, 30,000 USD is the midpoint between bullish and bearish, and it has been tested multiple times. Currently, about 75% of addresses are in a profitable state, while 25% are in a loss state. Historically, this ratio is a balance point for BTC, spending roughly half the time above and half the time below. This phase may take a considerable amount of time.
The market cap of stablecoins has slightly declined. In the past week, the market cap of the four major stablecoins decreased by 120 million USD, and the total market cap from the previous week decreased by approximately 70 million USD, indicating that USD investors are still exiting. Liquidity constraints affect market buying power, and a significant decline in trading volume can be observed from Q2 2023.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the overall market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is above 6, it is in the top range; when the indicator is below 2, it is in the bottom range. MVRV falling below the key level of 1 indicates that holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 0.69, entering the recovery phase.
2) Futures Market
Funding rates for futures: Neutral this week. Rates between 0.05-0.1% indicate more long leverage, suggesting a short-term market top; rates between -0.1-0% indicate more short leverage, suggesting a short-term market bottom.
Futures position: The total futures position this week has slightly decreased compared to the previous week, and the main force has withdrawn to some extent.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.4. Market sentiment is neutral. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a contrarian indicator, with below 0.7 indicating fear and above 2.0 indicating greed. The fluctuation of the long-short ratio data weakens its reference significance.
3) Current market situation
This week, BTC is undergoing a weak adjustment and is expected to continue until the Fed's interest rate hike in July. BTC has limited upside potential, while altcoins, after going through a round of adjustment, are in a state where there is little room for further decline, and there may be opportunities for a rebound in the later market.
B. Market Data:
I. Total Lock-up Volume of Public Chains
2. Proportions of TVL for Various Public Chains
This week, TVL increased by 0.4 B. Since the beginning of January, the total TVL has stopped declining and has been stable for 6 months.
This week, the proportion of the ETH chain slightly decreased, while the Optimism chain saw a 11% growth.
Comparing the active users of each chain from last week, there has been a significant increase in the number of users on Optimism, with 154,000 active users this week, a 50% growth compared to the same period last week.
By examining the changes in lock-up volume of each chain's protocols, the changes have been minimal. The lock-up volume of mainstream protocols has experienced slight fluctuations in line with the overall market trends. However, there is also a lack of new protocols with rapid lock-up volume growth.
3. Lock-up Volume of Protocols on Each Chain
1) Lock-up Volume of ETH
2) Lock-up Volume of BSC
3) Lock-up Volume of Polygon
4) Arbitrum Lock-up Situation
5) Optimism Lock-up Situation
IV. ETH Gas Fee History
The current on-chain transfer fee is approximately $4.36, Uniswap transaction fee is approximately $14.85, and Opensea transaction fee is approximately $5.77. Compared to last week's gas situation, this week's gas level is basically the same as last week, but Uniswap's transaction fee has dropped significantly, which may indicate a decrease in trading activity and a relatively stable market.
V. NFT Market Data Changes
1) NFT-500 Index:
2) NFT Market Situation:
3) NFT Trading Market Share:
4) NFT Buyer Analysis:
5) Active Projects:
NFT market total market value is still declining steadily. In terms of transaction volume, the transaction volume of top blue-chip projects decreased by 20% to 30% compared to last week. Since July, the overall transaction volume has also decreased by about 50%. It is worth noting that Metawin, ranked fourth this week, has seen continuous growth in transaction volume, with a trading volume of over $10 million this week.
The situation of old users paying for NFTs is still weakening, and new user entry continues to decline. In the current situation where more and more projects are making NFT issuance a standard, the number of active projects is still decreasing.
VI. Latest Project Financing Situation
About Foresight Ventures
Foresight Ventures is betting on the innovative journey of cryptocurrencies for the next few decades. It manages multiple funds: VC Fund, Secondary Active Management Fund, Multi-Strategy FOF, and Special Purpose S Fund "Foresight Secondary Fund l," with total assets under management exceeding $400 million. Foresight Ventures adheres to the concept of "Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term" and provides extensive support to projects through its strong ecosystem. Its team consists of senior professionals from top financial and technology companies, including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, and Bitmain.
