A. Market Viewpoints
I. Macro Liquidity
Tightening of monetary liquidity. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in July as scheduled, although it did not indicate whether there would be further rate hikes. Overall, the stance is dovish. This round of rate hikes has occurred 11 times so far, totaling 525 basis points, and interest rates have risen from 0.25% to 5.5%, reaching the highest level in this century. As the Fed nears the end of the rate hike cycle, the US Dollar Index has fallen below 100 points. In recent weeks, BTC has underperformed compared to tech stocks.
II. Overall Market Situation
Top 100 market capitalization gainers:
This week, the market experienced a weak adjustment. The dominance of altcoins has rebounded. There is a lack of market liquidity, and opportunities mainly lie in small coins and new projects on the blockchain. In the late stage of the previous bear market, funds speculated on capital chain projects, while this round has shifted to speculating on meme coins. The projects with the best performance this time are those with real income and use the income for dividends and buybacks. The market hotspots are trading robots and RWA.
WLD: The goal is to issue coins to every person worldwide and establish the first global-level blockchain for authentic human identity narratives, which can be used for payment and financial scenarios. The risk lies in the need for cooperation with local authorities for biometric data such as iris recognition. The token economics adopt a model of low circulation and high market value, entering the top 10 in terms of market capitalization, but the future upside may be relatively limited.
MKR: It is the leader in real asset blockchainization, with 70% of its revenue coming from the RWA track. Recently, the data from the new loan business has also reached a historical high. The long-term suppression of the token price caused by the major shareholder A 16 Z's reduction will soon come to an end.
UNIBOT: It is a leader in the trading robot track, benefiting from the popularity of on-chain Dogecoin. UNIBOT has some innovation, allowing users to place orders and trade directly on Telegram at a faster speed than Uniswap, with real income and dividends. However, the token model, which adopts a trading tax model similar to meme coins, has been criticized.
III. BTC Market
1) On-chain data
The number of BTC involved in trading is decreasing. Investors who have held BTC for more than six months or more than one year have reached new highs, with 75% holding BTC for more than six months and 69% holding BTC for more than one year without any movement.
The market value of on-chain stablecoins has slightly decreased, with the market value of the four major stablecoins decreasing by approximately $400 million. Without any new news about BTC in the spot ETF market, the possibility of consolidation remains higher.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the market's overall profitability using the market's total cost as a basis. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is in the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is in the bottom range. If MVRV falls below the key level of 1, holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 0.69, indicating a recovery phase.
2) Futures Market
Funding rate: Neutral this week. Rate of 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, indicating short-term market top; rate of -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, indicating short-term market bottom.
Open interest: Slight decrease in total open interest this week, with main force withdrawing.
Long/short ratio: 1.3. Market sentiment is neutral. Retail investor sentiment is usually a contrarian indicator, below 0.7 indicates fear, above 2.0 indicates greed. The significance of the long/short ratio data is weakened due to its high volatility.
3) Spot Market
The market has been weakly volatile this week, but with the Fed's interest rate hike coming to an end, the short-term bearish outlook is expected to dissipate. BTC is still above the weekly line, suggesting a relatively bullish sentiment, but limited upside potential. Altcoin index has seen recent rebounds, indicating potential opportunities for altcoins with changes in the market.
B. Market Data
1. Total Locked Amount on Public Chains
2. TVL Distribution on Different Public Chains
This week, TVL decreased by 1.1 B. The proportion of ETH chain decreased slightly by 0.4%. Optimism continues its upward trend from the previous week with a growth of 4.29% and a monthly growth of 14.59%. However, in terms of active users, although the number of Op chain users increased by 50% last week, it has returned to the previous level this week with 108,011 active users. Avalanche, on the other hand, saw a significant decline with a decrease of 3.17% and a monthly decline of 7.9%.
3. Locked Amount on Different Chain Protocols
1) ETH Locked Amount
2) BSC Lock-up Volume
3) Polygon Lock-up Volume
4) Arbitrum Lock-up Volume
5) Optimism Lock-up Volume
IV. ETH Gas Fee History
The current on-chain transfer fee is about $0.79, Uniswap transaction fee is about $7.27, and Opensea transaction fee is about $2.82. Compared to the gas situation last week, the gas level this week is basically the same, but the transaction fees for Uniswap and Opensea have decreased significantly, which may indicate a significant decrease in trading activity.
V. NFT Market Data Changes
1) NFT-500 Index:
2) NFT Market Situation:
3) NFT Trading Market Share:
4) NFT Buyer Analysis:
5) Active Projects:
This week, the total market value of the NFT market continues to decline. In terms of trading volume, the top blue-chip projects have experienced a decrease of about 10% compared to last week. The fluctuation curve of Active Projects indicates a lack of market activity. Looking at the active wallet addresses of new and existing NFT buyers, it can be seen that the payment situation for NFTs among existing users is continuously weakening, and the entry of new users is also declining.
VI. Latest Project Financing Situation
About Foresight Ventures
Foresight Ventures is betting on the innovative journey of cryptocurrencies in the next few decades. It manages multiple funds: VC fund, secondary active management fund, multi-strategy FOF, and special purpose S fund "Foresight Secondary Fund l", with total assets under management exceeding $400 million. Foresight Ventures adheres to the philosophy of "Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term", and provides extensive support to projects through its strong ecosystem. Its team consists of senior professionals from top financial and technology companies, including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, and Bitmain.
