A. Market View
1. Macro Liquidity
Monetary liquidity is tightening. Market consensus is that the Fed will not raise interest rates in September and start to cut interest rates next year. The U.S. Treasury Department’s latest bond issuance plan has greatly increased, which will have a greater impact on Q4 liquidity. The U.S. dollar index rebounded, supported by tightening liquidity. U.S. stocks ended their upward trend and began weekly level adjustments. The trend of the encryption market is opposite to that of US stocks, and is more affected by the news of spot ETFs.
2. Whole market conditions
The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:
Markets have been in a tight range this week, with volatility hitting record lows. There is no obvious bright spot in the market, and Evil Zhuang has repeatedly forced empty altcoin shipments. There are many opportunities in small coins and new coins on the chain. The hot spots in the market are trading robots and spinach.
RLB: Of the 5 billion tokens of the spinach platform RLB, 1.7 billion were repurchased and destroyed. In the future, 10% of the gambling income, 20% of the sports lottery income, and 30% of the contract income will be repurchased and destroyed every day, totaling about 200,000 US dollars per day. RLB is currently more profitable than Uniswap, with an annualized income of US$600 million, a profit of US$350 million, and a market value of about US$800 million.
MC: Gaming guilds rebounded due to YGG’s short squeeze. MCs market capitalization is 150 million US dollars, and the treasury cash is 100 million US dollars, which is relatively cheap.
AIMBOT: The trading robot AIMBOT will automatically flush the dog in the first 2 blocks of the new currency, while avoiding the Pixiu disk. 75% of the profits are used for dividends, and there are also 5% transaction taxes each. In the future, the number of robots will change from 1 to 5, and the speed of making money will accelerate.
3. BTC market
1) Data on the chain
BTC volatility has dropped, or entered a long-term sideways period. Historically, both the 15-16 and 19-20 cycles experienced a 6-month period of sideways boredom before the market accelerated beyond the -50% bull-bear line, which may be an indication of what may be ahead. Condition. In these cycles, the initial bottom rally is very strong, but leads to a long period of choppy consolidation.
Stablecoin outflows continue. The main reason is that the United States will issue 100 billion bonds in the near future. The current one-year U.S. bond risk-free rate is 5.3%, which is much higher than the on-site defi yield.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV fell below the key level of 1 and holders were generally in the red. The current indicator is 0.67, entering the recovery phase.
2) Futures market
Futures funding rates: Rates are neutral this week. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is more, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, and the short leverage is more, which is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures open interest: The total open interest rose this week, and the main players entered the market.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.2. Market sentiment is neutral. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, and above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.
3) Spot market price
BTC rose this week and still failed to break through the previous highs. Expect volatility to return soon as the BlackRock BTC spot ETF market expects an 80% probability of passing this year. However, this time the SEC will most likely postpone a decision on the application, because the SEC chairman does not seem to have changed his view on cryptocurrencies. A delay could lead to a continuation of BTC’s short-term downtrend.
B. Market data
1. The total lock-up volume of the public chain
2. TVL proportion of each public chain
TVL rebounded overall by 1.2b this week, but remains in decline over the medium term. This week, the ETH chain share increased by 1.5%, returning to the level at the beginning of the month. Except for Polygon, which has an 8.9% increase in TVL, the TVL of all Layer 2 public chains is falling. Among them, Arbitrum has fallen the most, with a decrease of 2.67%.
3. The lock-up volume of each chain agreement
1) ETH lock-up amount
2) BSC lock-up amount
3) Polygon lock-up amount
4) Arbitrum lock-up amount
5) Optimism lock-up amount
4. ETH Gas fee historical situation
Current on-chain transfer fees are about $1.32, Uniswap transaction fees are about $11.94, and Opensea transaction fees are about $4.63. The Gas level this week is basically the same as last week, and there is almost no significant fluctuation in Gas this month, and the market is lacking in activity. However, new coins on the chain are more active.
5. Changes in NFT market data
1) NFT-500 Index:
2) NFT market situation:
3) NFT trading market share:
4) NFT buyer analysis:
This week, the floor prices of blue-chip projects rose and fell. Among them, BAYC and MAYC rebounded slightly, but Azuki and DeGod both fell to varying degrees. From the perspective of the 30-day span, almost all blue-chip projects fell to varying degrees, of which Azuki fell by 30%, BAYC and MAYC fell by 13% respectively. Blur continues to maintain a significant market share lead. Judging from the active wallet addresses of new and old NFT buyers, there has been a slight rebound in the number of old users paying for NFT and the entry of new users this week.
6. The latest financing situation of the project
About Foresight Ventures
Foresight Ventures is betting on the innovation process of cryptocurrency in the next few decades. It manages multiple funds: VC funds, secondary active management funds, multi-strategy FOF, and special purpose S fund Foresight Secondary Fund l. The total asset management scale exceeds 4 One hundred million U.S. dollars. Foresight Ventures adheres to the concept of Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term and provides extensive support for projects through strong ecological power. Its team comes from senior people from top financial and technology companies including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, Bitmain and other top financial and technology companies.
