A. Market View
1. Macro Liquidity
Monetary liquidity is tightening. Inflation pressure still exists in the United States, and expectations that European and American central banks will maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time continue to rise. The Fed’s minutes were hawkish, suggesting that it will continue to raise interest rates in September, and the October U.S. bond yield hit a new high since 2008. The U.S. dollar index begins to rebound, which will suppress the prices of all risk assets. The weekly level of US stocks fell. The encryption market followed the weak performance of US stocks.
2. Whole market conditions
The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:
The market continued to be weak this week. Altcoins have generally fallen. From the initial public chain and Defi (RWA) to later games and memes, almost all sectors have rotated. Centralized exchanges lack liquidity and repeatedly squeeze short tickets. On the other hand, the booming development of the chain in the summer continues to set new highs, mainly including selected on-chain tokens such as RLB, UNIBOT, BITCOIN (Harry Potter), and OX. Market hotspots revolve around meme coins.
RUNE: THORChain is a cross-chain Defi based on the Cosmos ecosystem. It has recently launched a lending business and has also become a deflation model. THORChain was relatively active in the last bull market because its economic model comes with triple leverage, which helps rise and fall.
MC: The gaming guild industry is close to bottoming out. Merit Circles full circulation market capitalization is about US$200 million, but it has about US$100 million in the treasury at its disposal. The release of chips is nearing completion, and it has a high margin of safety. Recently, YGG’s short squeeze on the same track has skyrocketed, which has aroused market attention.
BITCOIN (Harry Potter): The meme leader on the chain, with the same name as BTC. The operation of the project side is relatively evil, and it was once washed down to almost zero. It is currently the 6th largest meme coin by market value.
3. BTC market
1) Data on the chain
BTC markets continue to trade within historically low volatility ranges. In fact most BTC traders are still underwater. The current short-term traders cost over six months is $28,600, and the long-term traders cost is much lower at $20,300. It is expected that the BTC market will mainly fluctuate sideways in this range in the short term.
Stablecoin outflows continue. The market value of USDT dropped by a rare $500 million. It shows that more funds, especially those of American investors, are still leaving the market, and the market is still not optimistic enough.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV fell below the key level of 1 and holders were generally in the red. The current indicator is 0.61, entering the recovery phase.
2) Futures market
Futures funding rate: This weeks rate is on the high side. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is more, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, and the short leverage is more, which is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures open interest: The total open interest increased slightly this week.
Futures long-short ratio: 2.3. The market has a strong intention to buy bottoms. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, and above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.
3) Spot market
This week, BTC’s daily line broke and fell. Last week, the US SEC did not approve the BTC spot ETF, the rebound failed to hit a new high, and the market continued to decline. Volatility has fallen to historically low levels, and volatility compression is usually followed by huge price shocks. In the short term, before the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in September, there is a high probability that the market will follow the adjustment of the US stock market. This will be a better time to get on the bus before the bull market.
B. Market data
1. The total lock-up volume of the public chain
2. TVL proportion of each public chain
This week, the overall TVL dropped by 1.9 b, a decrease of 4.6%. In recent weeks, the total TVL has been oscillating at the bottom, with no upward trend. This week’s ETH chain share was basically the same as last week, with a slight increase of 0.6%. The TVL of all Layer 2 public chains fell, with Arbitrum falling 8.1% and Optimisim falling 8.7%, the largest declines. Overall, only Solana did not fall, rising nearly 0.1%. The TVL of the Base chain has increased by 7% today, and has increased by 222% in the past 7 days.
3. The lock-up volume of each chain agreement
1) ETH lock-up amount
2) BSC lock-up amount
3) Polygon lock-up amount
4) Arbitrum lock-up amount
5) Optimism lock-up amount
4. ETH Gas fee historical situation
Current on-chain transfer fees are approximately $1.28, Uniswap transaction fees are approximately $11.23, and Opensea transaction fees are approximately $4.36. Gas levels this week are the same as last week, with almost no changes. Gas has almost no obvious fluctuations in recent weeks, and the market lacks activity. In terms of gas consumption, Uniswap occupies the top position.
5. Changes in NFT market data
1) NFT-500 Index:
2) NFT market situation:
3) NFT trading market share:
4) NFT buyer analysis:
The floor prices of blue-chip projects are basically falling this week, and only BAYC has a slight increase of 1% today. From a mid- to long-term perspective, the floor prices of blue-chip NFTs have been falling off a cliff in the past 90 days, with many projects falling by more than 50%. The overall NFT market volume is constantly shrinking. Judging from the active wallet addresses of new and old NFT buyers, both new and old users are declining, and without the inflow of new users, it will be a big challenge.
6. The latest financing situation of the project
About Foresight Ventures
Foresight Ventures is betting on the innovation process of cryptocurrency in the next few decades. It manages multiple funds: VC funds, secondary active management funds, multi-strategy FOF, and special purpose S fund Foresight Secondary Fund l. The total asset management scale exceeds 4 One hundred million U.S. dollars. Foresight Ventures adheres to the concept of Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term and provides extensive support for projects through strong ecological power. Its team comes from senior people from top financial and technology companies including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, Bitmain and other top financial and technology companies.
