A. Market Viewpoint
1. Macro Liquidity
Tightening of currency liquidity. The rise in international oil prices to a 10-month high has intensified inflation concerns. At the same time, US economic data has highlighted consumer demand and overall economic resilience, increasing the probability of avoiding a recession. Market expectations for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in November have increased. The US dollar index has stabilized at a 6-month high, suppressing risk assets. Prominent US tech stocks plummeted, and mainstream cryptocurrencies fell across the board.
2. Overall Market Situation
Top 100 market cap gainers:
The market continued to decline this week. Shanzhai altcoins saw short-term rallies but lacked sustainability. The cryptocurrency market has a total market capitalization of 1.1 trillion US dollars, with BTC, ETH, and stablecoins accounting for 800 billion US dollars, while the market cap of the remaining tens of thousands of altcoins shrank to only 300 billion US dollars. The market lacks hotspots, and there's short squeezing activity around contract altcoins.
TON: Close to the top 10 in terms of market capitalization, it is the most dominant public chain recently. TON has no technological innovation, mainly benefiting from Telegram's user base. Telegram's ecosystem is developing rapidly, with many bot projects similar to WeChat mini programs.
SOL: VISA chooses to use the SOL blockchain for payments instead of the ETH blockchain. This is because SOL is faster and cheaper.
BANANA GUN: The trading robot project plans to airdrop tokens recently, attracting many UNIBOT customers, similar to the relationship between SUSHI and UNI. The market expects that the airdrop will result in UNIBOT reaching half of its market value.
Three, BTC Market
1) On-chain Data
Risk appetite in the derivatives market has declined. The activity of the ETH futures market in the 23rd year is significantly lower than that in the 21st-22nd years, with average daily trading volume halving compared to the past two years. Funds continue to flow out of the spot market, and liquidity in the derivatives market continues to decline. Overall, investors seem hesitant to re-enter the market.
Stablecoins as a whole have decreased significantly. The market cap of USDT has increased by $5 million, but the market cap of USDC has decreased by $140 million, and USDC mainly represents US investors.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore reflects the overall profitability of the market based on the total cost. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is in the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is in the bottom range. MVRV falling below the key level of 1 indicates that holders are generally in a state of loss. The current indicator is 0.4, indicating a recovery phase.
2) Futures Market
Funding rates: Neutral this week. Rates range from 0.05% to 0.1%, indicating a majority of long leverages, which could be a short-term top for the market; rates from -0.1% to 0% indicate a majority of short leverages, which could be a short-term bottom for the market.
Futures Position: The total BTC position remained unchanged this week, with no new funds entering.
Futures Long-Short Ratio: 2.0. There is strong bottom-fishing sentiment in the market. Retail sentiment is mostly a contrarian indicator, with panic below 0.7 and greed above 2.0. The long-short ratio data has high volatility with weakened reference significance.
3) Current Market Situation
BTC has been oscillating and declining this week. Investor sentiment is subdued, with CEX exchange's trading volume in August dropping to its lowest this year. The current positive narratives are still BTC's spot ETF, BTC's halving cycle, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. It is recommended to gradually increase positions during market downturns.
B. Market Data
I. Total Lock-up Amount on Public Chains
II. Proportion of TVL on Various Public Chains
This week, the overall TVL has increased by 0.6 b, a growth rate of nearly 2%. In recent weeks, the TVL has been declining. The ETH chain has dropped by about 5% this week. Other chains have also experienced a general decline, reflecting the market's sluggish sentiment. It is worth noting that the Base chain continues to show a sharp increase of up to 90% this week, with a cumulative increase of 792% in the past thirty days. The overall number of protocols has reached 107, and it is about to surpass Solana in terms of the total number of protocols.
III. Lock-up Amount on Various Chain Protocols
1) Lock-up Amount on ETH
2) BSC Lock-up Situation
3) Polygon Lock-up Situation
4) Arbitrum Lock-up Situation
5) Optimism Lock-up Situation
6) Base Lock-up Situation
Chapter Four: ETH Gas Fee Historical Situation
Blockchain transfer fees are about $2.83, Uniswap transaction fees are about $9.65, Opensea transaction fees are about $3.75. Gas has risen this week, with minimal fluctuations in the past few weeks, reflecting the recent sluggish performance in the market. In terms of gas consumption, Uniswap still occupies the top position and has seen a 14% increase in the past 24 hours.
Fifth, NFT Market Data Changes
1) NFT-500 Index:
2) NFT Market Situation:
3) NFT Trading Market Share:
4) NFT Buyer Analysis:
This week, the floor prices of top blue-chip projects have all dropped, with BAYC and MAYC both falling by over 6%, and Milady dropping by as much as 17%. The total number of wallets and repeat buyers are both trending downward, and the overall market conditions are also affecting the number and enthusiasm of first-time buyers.
Sixth, Latest Financing Situation of Projects
About Foresight Ventures
Foresight Ventures bets on the innovative journey of cryptocurrencies for the next few decades. It manages multiple funds, including VC funds, secondary active management funds, multi-strategy FOF, and special purpose S Fund "Foresight Secondary Fund l", with total assets under management exceeding $400 million. Foresight Ventures adheres to the philosophy of "Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term", providing extensive support to projects through its strong ecological strength. Its team consists of senior professionals from top financial and technology companies, including Sequoia China, China International Capital Corporation, Google, Bitmain, and others.
