Electric Capital Developer Data Report: Number of new developers to decrease in 2023

区块律动BlockBeats

2023-10-19 19:00 (UTC+8)

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Compared with the same period last year, the number of developers decreased by 27%.

Original author: @eherrerosj

Original compilation: Luccy, BlockBeats

Electric Capital released an updated October developer data analysis on social media platforms on October 19, showing that the number of new developers exploring cryptocurrencies will decrease in 2023. BlockBeats has organized and compiled the updated content as follows:

We reviewed over 164 million crypto submissions and came to the following conclusions:

As of October 1, 2023, the number of monthly active open source developers was 19,300. Compared with the same period last year, the number of developers decreased by 27%.

Developers who have recently left the encryption field are mainly novices. Their working experience in the encryption field is less than 12 months, and their submitted code accounts for about 25% of all codes. This finding is consistent with our findings in July 2023, and the trend continues.

The number of developers has increased by 66% since the bear market 3 years ago

Compared to the last bear market, the number of developers increased by 66%, but the number of developers decreased in 2023, with a decrease of 27% compared to October 2022 and a decrease of 4% compared to October 2021.

Despite long-term growth, what has happened since October 2022?

Developers who have been in crypto for 1+ years continue to contribute, while many newbies leave

We can categorize monthly active developers by how long they have been working in the crypto space by comparing the time of their first and last commit:

· Newbie: Developers who have worked in the crypto field for less than 1 year

·Emerging: Developers who have been working in the crypto field for 1 to 2 years

·Mature: Developers who have been working in the encryption field for more than 2 years

Over the past year, the decline in monthly active developers has been primarily due to the novice phase. This shows that although the encryption field has maintained growth for a long time, many developers who have just joined since October 2022 may have chosen to leave due to various reasons (such as market fluctuations, fierce competition, etc.). However, those developers who have been working in the encryption field for more than 1 year are still continuing to contribute, which may mean that they have higher confidence in the encryption field or have found stable development opportunities in this industry.

We can see that the number of novice developers decreased by 58%, the number of emerging developers increased modestly by 11%, and the number of mature developers increased slightly by 5%.

Why are there fewer novice developers?

Fewer new developers exploring cryptocurrencies in 2023

First, the decline in novice developers is because fewer new developers are getting into crypto. As of October 2023, a total of 1,721 new developers have joined the crypto space. This compares to a 40% decrease in new developers entering the crypto space since June 2023; a 64% decrease since October 2022; and a 67% decrease since the market peak in November 2021 .

Newbies tend to dominate during market peaks

Second, novices dominate during bull markets, but less so during bear markets. This phenomenon has occurred in the past:

In the six months after the peak in January 2018, the proportion of newbies was as high as 70%;

In the seven months after the peak in November 2021, the proportion of newbies reached 60%.

However, 24 months after the January 2018 peak, the share of emerging and established developers rose to 60%;

In the 23 months after the peak in November 2021, the proportion of emerging and mature developers reached 70%.

While monthly active developers are down overall, how important are the developers who are leaving?

Developers who stay in the crypto space commit more code, are active for more days, and work in the crypto space longer than developers who leave.

In the crypto space, the vast majority of code submission contributions come from developers who remain in the field:

· About 25% of commits are contributed by developers who have left after July 2023

· 75% of commits are contributed by developers who are still active in the field after July 2023

In the crypto space, developers who stay on tend to have longer hours and more code commit days:

For developers still working in the field, the median number of weeks active was 12 weeks, compared with just 1 week for developers who left the field;

·In the crypto space, the median experience of remaining developers is 21 months, while the median experience of developers who left is only 5 months.