SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240123):BTC跌破4W

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SignalPlus
1 months ago
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BTC的跌势仍在延续,在首次下破40000关口发生小幅反弹后于今日期权收盘前再度下行挑战39000美元,ETH跌势更加剧烈,三小时内下行约5.6%,最低接近2212美元。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240123):BTC跌破4W

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240123):BTC跌破4W

Yesterday (22 JAN) the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the SP and the Dow rising 0.22%/0.36% respectively, setting new highs at the close, and the Nasdaq rising 0.32%. The U.S. bond yield first fell and then rose. The ten-year bond briefly fell below 4.1% before recovering all lost ground and is now at 4.127%. The two-year bond fell to 4.37% before regaining the 4.40% mark.

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240123):BTC跌破4W

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240123):BTC跌破4W

Source: Binance & TradingView

In terms of digital currency, the decline of BTC is still continuing. After breaking through the 40,000 mark for the first time and rebounding slightly, it once again went down to challenge $39,000 before the close of options today. The decline of ETH was even more severe, falling by about 5.6% in three hours, with the lowest close to 2212. Dollar. Affected by this, the front-end implied volatility has risen sharply. The ATM IV of BTC/ETH within two weeks has currently reached around 55%/60% respectively, and Vol Skew once again broke through the recent low.

In terms of trading, as of todays delivery, the focus of the BTC market is mainly on the long-short game of 26 JAN 24 40000-P, and the call of buying 2 FEB 42000-45000 on dips. At the same time, the demand for buying Put in the medium and long term has also not increased. Not subsided, represented by 23 FEB 2 39000-P and 29 MAR 24 35000-P. In terms of ETH, we observed that 23 FEB 24-2500-C was bought intensively on the options chain, from Index 2380 all the way to around 2347, with a total amount of nearly 30,000 ETH. A little further away, 2900-C sell orders appeared simultaneously on 29 MAR 24 and 26 APR 24, with a total amount of nearly 35,000 ETH.

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240123):BTC跌破4W

Source: Deribit (as of 23 JAN 16:00 UTC+8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240123):BTC跌破4W

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240123):BTC跌破4W

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240123):BTC跌破4W

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240123):BTC跌破4W

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240123):BTC跌破4W

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