SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

avatar
SignalPlus
1 months ago
This article is approximately 324 words,and reading the entire article takes about 1 minutes
在减半事件即将到来之际,BTC ETF 净流入放缓,实际波动也进一步缩减,远期 Future Yield 下行 0.4% -0.6% 左右。期权方面,隐含波动率再度下行 2-4% Vol。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

Yesterday (11 APR), the U.S. PPI annual rate recorded 2.1%, slightly lower than the expected 2.2%, which slightly calmed the markets shock to yesterdays CPI data. However, U.S. bond yields remained high and fluctuated, with two-year/ten-year periods Currently reporting 4.920% /4.533%. Fed officials are also eager to withdraw some of their previous dovish remarks and are in a dilemma in the face of high inflation data, strong economic conditions and the pressure from the election in the second half of the year.

On the other hand, the European Central Bank announced yesterday that it kept its three major interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time and hinted that it would cut interest rates soon. President Lagarde said that there is no preset interest rate path, no reliance on the Federal Reserve, and no exchange rate target.

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView

In terms of digital currency, as the halving event is approaching, the net inflow of BTC ETF has slowed down, and the actual fluctuations have further shrunk. The forward Future Yield fell by about 0.4% -0.6%. In terms of options, the implied volatility has dropped again by 2-4% Vol. Selling short-term options continues to be favored by traders, mainly concentrated in BTC 19 APR and 26 APR. ETH buying and selling is relatively balanced, perhaps due to the exposure of IV to RV. It has shrunk significantly due to the sell-off in the past few days.

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

Source: Deribit (as of 12 APR 16:00 UTC+8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

Source: SignalPlus,ATM Vol continues to decline

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

Source: SignalPlus, IV vs RV

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction distribution

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

Data Source: Deribit, ETH transaction distribution

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240412):减半在即,IV何时止跌?

You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: xdengalin), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends.

SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

Original article, author:SignalPlus。Reprint/Content Collaboration/For Reporting, Please Contact report@odaily.email;Illegal reprinting must be punished by law.

ODAILY reminds readers to establish correct monetary and investment concepts, rationally view blockchain, and effectively improve risk awareness; We can actively report and report any illegal or criminal clues discovered to relevant departments.

Recommended Reading
Editor’s Picks