Bitget Research Institute: The markets short-term risk aversion sentiment has intensified, waiting for the FOMC meeting and CPI data on the 12th

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Bitget研究院
1 months ago
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The market is paying attention to the FOMC meeting and CPI data on the 12th. The markets short-term risk aversion sentiment has intensified. The BTC price surged and then fell back to the current level of around US$68,000. The overall wealth-creating effect of the market is average.

In the past 24 hours, many new popular currencies and topics have appeared in the market, which may be the next opportunity to make money, including:

  • The sectors with strong wealth creation effects are: Meme sector, BTC inscription track, EVM blue chip projects

  • Hot search tokens and topics by users: Cookie 3, zkSync, POLYX

  • Potential airdrop opportunities include: LogX, Elixir

Data statistics time: June 11, 2024 4: 00 (UTC + 0)

1. Market environment

Yesterday, the price of BTC rose and then fell. After rising to 70,000 USD, the price of BTC fell sharply and is currently fluctuating around 68,000 USD. BTC ETF ended its 19-day net inflow and saw its first net outflow this month yesterday, with an outflow of 64.9 million USD. The outflow of BTC ETF is one of the main reasons for the decline of BTC.

At the macro level, since the CPI and FOMC meeting of last month will be announced and held at the same time on the 12th, the markets short-term risk aversion sentiment has increased, causing a short-term correction in the market. The FOMC meeting mainly focuses on Powells speech after the meeting, and maintaining the interest rate level is the consensus expectation of the market. The CPI data is expected to grow by 3.5% annually. If it is higher than 3.5%, the market may continue to fall; and if it is lower than 3.5%, it is likely to cause a short-term rise in the market.

2. Wealth-making sector

1) Changes in the sector: Meme sector (PEOPLE)

main reason:

The quadrennial US election is approaching. PEOPLE is the most election-related token currently supported by mainstream CEXs and has received a lot of community attention recently.

Rising situation: PEOPLE rose 14% + in 7 days against the trend;

Factors affecting the market outlook:

  • US election process: Pay attention to the impact of the US election process on this sector. If there is good news, PEOPLE may rise first;

  • Dynamics of major funds: Understand whether major funds continue to flow in through contract data and news from the primary market. Generally speaking, a sudden and sharp increase in the number of open contracts is the core standard for indicating the main funds. You can continue to pay attention to the dynamics of contract indicators;

2) Block changes: BTC Inscription Block (ORDI)

main reason:

  • UniSat announced through the Bitcoin Pizza Festival that it would airdrop “pizza” to eligible user wallets, which led to an increase in the popularity of the Inscription project and a rebound in the track;

  • The Inscription track has completed the previous consolidation and shock market, forming an upward rebound breakthrough market

Rising situation: ORDI, 7 days against the trend rose 18% +;

Factors affecting the market outlook:

  • News level dynamics: Pay attention to the support and dynamics of unisat, KOL, and head exchanges for the inscription track. If there is any relevant favorable announcement, you can invest in time;

  • Contract data changes: From the contract data, ORDI has been in a state where the long-short ratio of the contract account is lower than 1 for a long time, indicating that it is large funds that are bullish. Through coinglass data, you can continue to pay attention to relevant data. If the data begins to turn, you should stop profit in time;

3) The sectors that need to be focused on in the future: ETH ecological projects

The main reason is that the ETH spot ETF may release results at the end of June/early July. ETH ecological assets may have room for speculation. Recently, the track has experienced a large correction and has fallen out of layout space.

Specific currency list:

  • UNI: The first DeFi Swap project on blockchain applications. Uniswap generated $2.022 million in fees in the past 24 hours, with considerable revenue.

  • LDO: The leading LSD project in the ETH ecosystem, with a TVL of 34.4 billion US dollars and a valuation of less than 2 billion US dollars, is relatively undervalued;

  • PENDLE: The TVL of the project has continued to rise. Currently, the TVL has reached 6.6 billion US dollars. The total market value of stablecoins has increased, and the popularity of the Restaking track has increased the demand for PENDLEs business in the bull market.

3. User Hot Searches

1) Popular Dapps

Cookie 3:

Cookie 3 related contracts Cookie Army Badge (CAB) are listed on three chains: BSC/ Aribitrum/ Base. Previously, on June 5, MarketingFi and AI data layer Cookie 3 completed a $5.5 million token financing and will launch its COOKIE token on June 13.

2) Twitter

Bitget Research Institute: The markets short-term risk aversion sentiment has intensified, waiting for the FOMC meeting and CPI data on the 12th

zkSync:

ZKsync published an article on its official website introducing ZK Nation, which disclosed that ZK Nation is a community driven by a common goal to manage, protect and develop the ZKsync protocol. It is planned to announce the ZKsync protocol token distribution and delegation process within a week.

POLYX (Polymesh):

Polymesh is similar to Mantra, an institutional-grade permissioned blockchain built specifically for regulated assets. Recently, it has been active in promoting RWA. In the recent market decline, it has risen against the trend, with large trading volume, and the trading volume in the past 24 hours has increased by +200% month-on-month.

3) Google Search Region

From a global perspective:

Yesterday, Google Trends did not show any particularly prominent tokens/projects. Several sports betting-related terms were trending, perhaps because the European Cup and the America’s Cup are approaching. You can pay attention to the Fan Token section in the near future.

From the hot searches in each region:

(1) In Asia: Southeast Asian countries have shown their interest in the TON ecosystem, with NOT and Blum continuing to appear on hot searches; AI project OLAS and Layer 1 project ALGO appeared on hot searches in Singapore; and Avalanche appeared on hot searches in South Korea.

(2) From the perspective of European and American countries: QUBIC appeared on the hot searches in the UK, France, and Australia; countries such as Spain, Poland, and Belgium have always paid high attention to the AI and cloud computing project Grass, which has not yet issued a coin.

(3) Latin American countries such as Brazil and Argentina are more interested in dog-related memes such as BRETT and SHIB on Base.

Potential Airdrop Opportunities

LogX

LogX is a liquidity solution focused on perpetual contracts on L2 chains. LogX is designed as a large aggregator that brings together liquidity from different chains. On February 13, 2024, LogX completed a $6.1 million seed round of financing, with investors including Coinbase Ventures, IOSG Ventures, Sequoia Capital, and Saison Capital.

Specific participation method: link your wallet to recharge USDC and conduct contract transactions to increase the volume. Note: LogXs liquidity on different chains comes from different liquidity providers. The liquidity on Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base comes from Orderly. Orderlys point airdrop interaction is about to end, so it may be better to use Linea, Mode and other chains whose liquidity comes from LogX OG to conduct transactions to increase the active interaction on the Linea chain. At the same time, if you are interacting with Linea, it is recommended to use the Linea chain to interact to increase the active interaction on the Linea chain.

Elixir

Founded in 2022, Elixir is a modular DPoS liquidity network that enables anyone to provide liquidity directly to the order book, bringing liquidity to long-tail crypto assets and allowing exchanges and protocols to bootstrap liquidity on their ledgers.

On March 12, 2024, Elixir completed an $8 million Series B financing round with a valuation of $800 million; on October 18, 2023, Elixir completed a $7.5 million Series A financing round; on January 17, 2023, Elixir completed a $2.1 million seed round of financing; investors include Hack VC, GSR, Sui, and Amber Group.

How to participate: Earn points by participating in Apothecary. You can deposit at least $100 in ETH to mint elxETH to unlock the treasure chest. elxETH is a native yield token backed by ETH at a 1:1 ratio. After the mainnet is launched, it will become a full-chain LP token to power the order book liquidity of the exchange. At the same time, you can provide liquidity to Elixir-supported protocols through https://agg.elixir.xyz/.

Original link: https://www.bitget.com/zh-CN/research/articles/12560603811012

【Disclaimer】The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investing based on this information is at your own risk.

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