Original author: Yano , BlockWorks Co-Founder
Original translation: TechFlow
The bull market is divided into four stages.
Buckle up, we’ve just entered the fun part.
Welcome to the third stage.
As a reminder, the first stage is rebirth.
This phase takes place from January 2023 to January 2024.
During the rebirth phase, bear market exhaustion is the main feature.
Indifference makes all stories lose their appeal.
Your friends and the media are still focused on the bear market crash.
Layoffs continue.
However, prices are quietly recovering.
Bitcoin has tripled.
But you hardly notice because you are still losing money on many of your investments.
Only veteran cryptocurrency investors who have experienced more than two cycles realize that the bull run has begun.
Most people still dont believe this is the beginning of a bull market.
The second stage is excitement
This phase began in February 2024 and ended last week.
Some coins are near all-time highs. Market stories are returning, but only a few per quarter.
Everyone in the cryptocurrency space knows that we are currently in a bull market.
But strangely enough, your friends still havent messaged you.
You are in a strange state of excitement and anxiety.
Layoffs are largely over, but hiring has yet to restart.
The field seems closed. No one leaves, and no new people join.
Life is generally good. Your crypto friends are making money.
This is the calm before the storm.
The third stage is ecstasy
We are at this stage now.
The ecstasy phase officially begins with the presidential election on November 5th.
It was a joyful moment.
Everyone is making money, but speculators have not yet rushed in in force.
Take the opportunity to enjoy this moment, because it will be very short.
The asset you own is about to surpass its all-time high (if it hasn’t already).
In the past, there were only a few new market stories every quarter, but now there are new stories every week.
By the end, there were new stories almost every day.
No one gets tired of these stories – every idea is considered a “good” idea.
Everyone with a following is seen as a genius and has an insight into a new market story.
Someone is always going to make money on the hot coin of the week, and I can guarantee that they will be showing it off.
This can be frustrating.
(But remember, everyone has their own interests and no one shares their failures)
New market stories bring new currencies.
There are coins that go up every day. You won’t own most of them.
You might make 8% that week, but you’ll be upset because you missed out on [the hot new coin].
The combination of new coins and new stories brings about the fear of missing out (FOMO).
FOMO can get you into trouble if you’re not careful.
Some suggestions:
Understand your investment strategy and its pros and cons.
Trading every day? Be aware that this can affect your work and mental health.
Focusing on building? Be aware that you might miss some great deals.
Everything has pros and cons – understand them.
Dont try to do it all or you wont be successful.
Back to stage three.
The private markets are about to get really hot.
It all started with asset allocators who woke up on November 6 to find themselves woefully underinvested in crypto.
They began approaching venture capital firms and hedge funds for investment allocations.
These firms will announce large new funds sooner than you think.
Late-stage venture capital has been dormant for more than two years. Now it’s coming back with a vengeance.
Large-scale funds and an open IPO market mean that BD round companies can raise funds again.
Large financings have once again become the norm.
The Series A financing transaction was completed quickly.
This attracts new world-class founders to join.
Recruitment started to get intense.
The protocol offers attractive token rewards to top talents.
If you are a founder, you have 3-6 months (maybe less) to hire the best talent at a reasonable salary.
Then you have to play catch-up.
We are mainstream again.
Forbes, Bloomberg, CNBC… they are all enthusiastic about cryptocurrencies.
Your friends message you about Cardano. Your financial advisor recommends a 5% allocation in Bitcoin.
Traditional finance races to “tokenize everything”
Then, sometime in mid-2025, strange things start happening.
Entering Stage 4: Disconnect
Fortune 500 companies announce massive Bitcoin purchases.
Athletes and artists are starting to get involved — cryptocurrency is seeping into the culture.
Venture capital firms no longer perform due diligence.
Speculators raise millions and become the center of attention.
A random currency skyrocketed 10 times in a week.
In the fourth stage, everyone begins to believe that the market will go up forever.
Delusions influence decision making.
This stage can also be described as frenzy.
Nothing makes sense anymore.
There used to be a new market story every week.
Now its all a story.
You are richer than you ever imagined.
Your high school friend issued a token and his net worth reached tens of millions.
A sophisticated investor buys a sports team.
Bieber launches a decentralized social platform.
Lebron launched a Meme coin.
Companies are investing billions of dollars in marketing, so get ready.
The next 12 months are going to be a crazy time. For those who commit, 2025 could be a life-changing year.
But if youre not careful, hubris and laziness during Stage 4 can cost you.
Finally, don’t forget to enjoy life from time to time.
Now, lets start building.
