Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )
Author: Azuma ( @azuma_eth )
As U.S. President-elect Trumps second term approaches, some key positions in his cabinet have surfaced in the past few days, but the battle for the position of Treasury Secretary has become increasingly fierce.
According to current market expectations, the nomination for the new Treasury Secretary may be announced as early as this week, but the Trump team has not yet decided on the final candidate. This morning, Fox Business reporter Charles Gasparino revealed that the Trump team has sought advice from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and at least one BlackRock executive; in addition, Trump will meet with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to discuss personnel issues for the next administration.
The prediction market Polymarket has opened a guessing pool for the position of finance minister. As of around 10:00, the trading volume of the pool has exceeded 2 million US dollars. The current popular potential candidates are as follows (only the top 6 candidates are covered, and the remaining candidates are extremely unlikely):
former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh;
Scott Bessent, founder of Key Square Group;
Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald;
Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management;
former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer;
Senator Bill Hagerty.
At present, the market is looking forward to a person who is more friendly to cryptocurrency to take control of the financial power, thereby providing a more relaxed growth environment for the industry. Next, Odaily Planet Daily will sort out the attitudes of these six potential candidates towards the crypto industry in the past.
Probability leader: Kevin Warsh
First of all, it is worth celebrating that Kevin Warsh, the former Federal Reserve Governor with the highest current nomination probability (46%), has long been regarded as a supporter of cryptocurrency - even earlier than Trumps change of attitude.
In an interview with CNBC in early 2021, Warsh said: In an economic situation with a weaker dollar, Bitcoin makes sense as part of a portfolio.
In 2022, Warsh also invested in Bitwise, one of the main promoters of BTC and ETH ETFs.
However, there is some controversy about Warsh himself. He has repeatedly expressed support for central bank digital currency (CBDC). The cryptocurrency industry, which advocates the spirit of decentralization, may not like this.
The latest news is that the Trump team supports Warsh to serve as US Treasury Secretary, and Warsh has been invited to Trumps Mar-a-Lago for negotiations, but discussions are still ongoing.
Soros former deputy: Scott Bessent
Scott Bessent, founder of hedge fund Key Square Group and former deputy of Soros, was once considered the most likely candidate for the next Treasury Secretary. His nomination probability once led Polymarket. However, as American Protector Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessents appointment as Treasury Secretary, his nomination probability dropped directly.
Just as Musk criticized Bessent for “just doing business as usual,” Bessent is considered a more traditional person, with the Associated Press once positioning him as a “cryptocurrency skeptic” in a report .
However, as Trump became more supportive of cryptocurrencies, Bessents attitude changed. He said in July: I am excited about the presidents acceptance of cryptocurrencies. I think it fits in well with the Republican Party. Cryptocurrencies represent freedom, and the cryptocurrency economy will continue to exist.
The latest news is that Bessent may move to the position of Chairman of the National Economic Council, but this outcome is also not yet certain.
The Man Behind Tether: Howard Lutnick
While Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessent, he also publicly supported Howard Lutnick , co-chairman of Trumps transition team and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. As a result, Lutnicks nomination probability once led, but then declined due to rumors that Warsh was about to take office.
Lutnick himself is an absolute cryptocurrency supporter and can even be seen as the most pro-crypto candidate among the major candidates.
Lutnicks Cantor Fitzgerald manages more than half of Tethers stablecoin reserves; Lutnick has personally spoken on stage at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville; Lutnick has also advocated for classifying Bitcoin as a commodity similar to gold and oil, and called for clearer regulation of the cryptocurrency sector.
The man at the helm of $700 billion: Marc Rowan
Marc Rowan, CEO of asset management giant Apollo Global Management, has only recently been named as a potential candidate.
Although Rowans company focuses on alternative asset investments, he rarely expresses his views on cryptocurrencies. In 2022, Rowan told Bloomberg that the ecosystem built around cryptocurrencies is simply amazing; however, this year, when Rowan was asked whether cryptocurrencies would play a role in the future of the U.S. financial system, he said the topic was beyond his understanding.
The Financial Times reported that some Wall Street executives are positive about Rowans potential nomination, but they also believe it will be difficult for Rowan to give up his position as CEO of Apollo Global Management, which has assets under management of $700 billion.
The architect of the trade war: Robert Lighthizer
Robert Lighthizer has not explicitly expressed his attitude towards cryptocurrencies, but the market still needs to pay attention to Lighthizers potential appointment.
Lighthizer served as the former U.S. Trade Representative during Trump’s first term and is considered a “hardcore protectionist.” Politico once called him As the designer of Trumps tariff trade war against China, the market is generally concerned that Lighthizers appointment will affect the activity and stability of global trade activities.
Encryption bill promoter: Bill Hagerty
The chances of Tennessee Republican Senator Bill Hagerty becoming Treasury Secretary are not high, but as a senator he has actually promoted the advancement of cryptocurrency-related bills.
In October this year, Hagerty published a draft legislative discussion paper aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Investment bank TD Cowen stated in a report that the draft may become the outline of a future bill in 2025.
Hagerty has also voiced support for Trump’s push to make the United States a cryptocurrency hub, saying of the bitcoin industry in July: “We need to make sure this happens in the United States.”
The regulatory spring of cryptocurrency
In short, the next US Treasury Secretary is expected to emerge soon. From the perspective of potential successors, except for Robert Lighthizer, whose attitude is unclear, most of the names that have been exposed are relatively friendly to cryptocurrencies.
For the cryptocurrency industry, which has long been plagued by regulatory issues, the next few years may be the years with the most relaxed growth environment in the industrys history . This regulatory spring may be the best opportunity for all parties in the industry to seek development.
