The themes of this Space include Alpha investment opportunities and industry information acquisition, AI tool usage, and market cycle and hot track analysis. There are three guests attending this Space, namely Kevin, Chief Business Officer of Gate.io , Justin (CaptainZ), Head of Research at Gametaverse, and independent researcher NingNing.
Which fields will see an explosion in the future?
Kevin: Everyone likes Memecoin, but many users outside the circle cannot understand the purpose of Memecoin. In fact, the concept of Meme did not start with Memecoin, nor did it start with the Internet. Meme is a very good concept. As long as everyone has this culture or a common memory point, it can be a Meme. I cannot predict which Memecoin will be able to cross the cycle, but I think this sector will definitely stay. For example, there are some Meme stocks in stocks. In addition, I like games very much. I think AI has many applications in games, which is also a very good sector.
Justin: We are in a bull market cycle now. From the perspective of currency prices, I think all tracks should rise in the next three to five months at least, but there will be some more prominent tracks. I personally think that AI Agent, Meme and deSci have greater opportunities.
NingNing: Actually, the previous wave of market was a bit of a miss. No one expected it, or at least I didnt expect that the most powerful ones would be the old cottage, such as XRP. Many new investors or newcomers may not have heard of these coins at all, and they performed very well, but I think that after this fierce correction, the entire market will rotate again and gradually switch. I am also optimistic about the native form of our currency circle, which mainly consists of two parts, one is chain abstraction, and the other is AI Agent. Of course, many people play AI Agent as a meme, such as ai16z, ELISA, and also GOAT and ACT. But now this seems to be changing. Recently, when Solana was doing a hackathon, they have begun to transform into a project with a development team that is continuously iterating.
My personal judgment is that this years AI Agent is not a bull market, but a very early sprout of a new trend. Next year, when OpenAI releases a commercial AI Agent, it will set off a real growth opportunity similar to the DeFi Summer, so I think this area may be worth watching. Another is chain abstraction, because after Trump takes office, regulatory policies will change greatly, and chain abstraction will completely change our current product paradigm. There may be many super financial apps built on the Web 3 stack that will get some licenses, and then they may expand the market in the United States like to C financial consumers, which will also bring very dramatic growth opportunities.
A massive amount of information is generated in the industry every day. How do you obtain information and screen potential targets and projects?
Kevin: Take the Meme sector for example. Sometimes I saw Memecoin but didn’t realize it had appeared, and even missed the opportunity to buy it at the bottom on some trading platforms. Sometimes, even if you see a token, you don’t understand its background, so it’s hard to judge whether it’s worth investing.
I think there is a common problem among people in the cryptocurrency circle, that is, we tend to only pay attention to things within the cryptocurrency circle, and pay less attention to information outside the cryptocurrency circle. Just like the development of AI mentioned by NingNing, the situation of OpenAI, and even the emergence of some products, although they are not necessarily directly related to the cycle of a certain currency, they will have an impact on the entire ecosystem. There are also some overseas memes. Sometimes we only see that Memecoin is online, but we don’t know its background and team situation, and we don’t even know why they are so popular. These are all things we need to pay attention to.
As for obtaining information within the cryptocurrency circle, common channels include CMC and monthly reports from various platforms. Everyone should be familiar with this aspect, but I suggest that you pay more attention to information outside the cryptocurrency circle and broaden your horizons so as to more comprehensively grasp market trends and potential opportunities.
Justin: I get up at 5 a.m. every morning. The reason I choose this time is that there are more potential projects between 5 a.m. and 8 a.m. I start to look at the market and scan the chain from this time. The so-called chain scanning is to use tools such as GMGN to set filtering conditions. For example, I usually set it to focus on projects with a market value of more than 2 million. Qualified projects will display their website, Twitter and other information. If there is no Twitter, I will skip it directly. If there is Twitter, I will click in to check the project carefully and find out what it does. Then I will search in Telegram. I have joined many groups to see if anyone in other groups is discussing this project. At the same time, I will also search the contract address and name of the project on Twitter to see if there are any bloggers discussing it, so as to determine the narrative angle of the project, understand whether there are big KOLs or institutions behind it to endorse it, and then check its current market value to decide whether to buy it. This process will probably last until after 7 oclock.
In terms of information acquisition channels, Twitter is the most important. Secondly, I will also browse the homepages of industry media such as Odaily, Foresight, and Lvdong to see if there are any in-depth articles. If there are, I will read them carefully. I don’t read group messages very often, because I have joined many groups and the messages are complicated. I only search to see if there are any related discussions when I need to find a certain project.
This is related to the new tracks that I am focusing on, such as AI agent and Meme. New assets in these tracks are constantly emerging, so the information I get is often relatively new, and I may even know it before other KOLs or retail investors discover it.
In short, Twitter is my main channel for obtaining information on the tracks that I follow. Every time I catch a “Golden Dog” project, it is the result of in-depth research on the project, which is not easily obtained.
NingNing : Captain and I have similar ideas. When I was obsessed with meme speculation before, I would also scan the chain. However, I rely more on the news from group members. Our group members have various unique information channels and can find some interesting project ideas very early. There are Golden Dog projects, and of course there are many pitfalls. We follow a principle that it is normal regardless of success or failure. At present, there is a main problem in discovering information: whether it is the Twitter information flow or the information provided by tools such as GMGN, the amount of information is relatively complicated and heavy for early screening projects. We may need to integrate various types of data information. For example, after seeing certain data, we must also combine other tools such as Bubble or more professional Akham to assist in judgment. The opportunities of Golden Dog projects are often fleeting. If you are one minute or even two minutes late, you will miss the best time window to get on the train. Therefore, in this regard, I think there is still room for iteration and improvement to better meet everyones needs for on-chain PVP.
We mentioned a lot of AI content before. What unique features does Gate’s latest AI product include?
Kevin: Now I dont want to talk about it from the perspective of Gates chief business officer, but from a personal perspective. I have worked in a bank for more than ten years. When I joined the bank in 2005, related transactions in Asia had just begun. From 2015, although I tried to integrate AI into the trading field, it was unsuccessful due to various factors. However, now I see that the applications I once expected have been realized in the currency circle, which makes me feel very emotional. Next, lets talk about the application of AI, which mainly has three directions. The first is the selection of coins. Teacher Qin also mentioned the problem of how to choose in the market. I go to bed late and go to bed at 2 am, and I dont have time to pay attention to those information, but now the coin selection AI is very powerful. It can not only screen out the currency, but also explain the reasons for the selection, instead of waiting for the market to be delayed for a long time before giving the result, avoiding the situation where it is impossible to buy at the bottom.
The second is the deep education robot, namely Ultra AI. It can not only provide trading options, but also present the backtest results, allowing users to choose trading strategies according to their own risk tolerance. In fact, it uses AI to process past trading experience and provide it to users for reference.
Finally, considering the large amount of information and materials today, it is difficult for users to read all the content. Take Bitcoin as an example. When the user selects Bitcoin and presses a button, AI can give a recent summary of Bitcoin, such as why it fell yesterday. For other articles or live broadcasts (like our one-hour live broadcast today), if the user does not have time to watch, AI can also provide a text summary to facilitate users to quickly understand key information.
The AI applications in these three directions are designed to help cryptocurrency users better use information to make investment decisions in the current situation where information is complex and there are many currencies.
When can I experience these products?
Kevin: If you have a Gate account, you can see the relevant features now. This is not a buy or sell recommendation, but there are some free content on the Gate platform that you can use, such as viewing news, and seeing AI-generated summaries of different articles or currencies. You can experience these features first to see if they are useful, and then give us feedback on your experience, so that we can optimize the AI function based on the feedback.
After the project goes online, what fundamentals and news will be used to determine its future trends?
Justin: If a currency has been listed on an exchange, I will definitely pay attention to its K-line situation. As for fundamental information, I mainly read news from industry media, such as Odaily, Foresight, etc. As mentioned before, I will browse all the content on the homepage of industry media every day, find articles that I am interested in, and then conduct in-depth research.
NingNing: When judging the trend of a specific currency, I currently rely more on two aspects to obtain information about changes in fundamentals and news that are worth paying attention to. On the one hand, there are vertical media such as Odaily; on the other hand, there are Twitter information. As for fundamentals, I think it is often necessary to view the original documents of the project. I usually use Claude to help me read and understand these documents. I will interact and communicate with Claude. Through multiple exchanges, it can outline a relatively clear outline of the projects fundamentals for me, thereby helping me quickly understand the fundamentals of the project.
Are there any indicator tools to determine the industry cycle and turning point?
Kevin: In the cryptocurrency world, we pay attention to some specific indicators. For example, we pay attention to the market cycle in the United States. In fact, we discussed it at the beginning of this year, but we didnt explore it in depth at that time. Maybe we can see it more clearly next year. This is not only related to the flow of funds in the cryptocurrency world, but also affects other financial markets, such as the stock market and the bond market, so this kind of information is very useful. I personally also pay attention to some micro indicators, among which the Fear and Greed Index makes me very interesting. This index is well named and it reflects market sentiment. When the index shows that the market is in a greedy state, it is not a good thing, which means that the market may be overheated; and when it is in a fear state, people often dare not buy. For example, when the price of Bitcoin was over 10,000 two years ago, many people did not dare to buy because of the market decline. Later, Bitcoin fell to 14,000 or even lower. But now the situation is different. The market is good, and many people who dont understand the cryptocurrency world have begun to enter the market. For example, our family members will also ask how to buy Bitcoin. However, as Justin and NingNing said before, these people lack experience in analyzing information and investing in the cryptocurrency world, and this blind buying state is not good. Therefore, the “Fear and Greed Index” serves as a warning to us and can help us better grasp market sentiment and investment opportunities.
Justin: In this regard, I divide it into two categories. At the macro level, I will pay attention to the fiscal policy of the Federal Reserve to determine whether it is in a tightening cycle, a deflationary cycle, or a water release cycle. At the same time, I will also pay attention to whether there are major support measures in Trumps policies. From the perspective of specific indicators, I often use Trading view and focus on two indexes. One is the market share of Bitcoin (BTC.D). The current market share of Bitcoin is around 56%. Based on the experience of the previous cycles, if the ratio falls to around 40%, such as 38% to 39%, I will think that the market has reached a stage top. The other is the market share of USDT (USDT.D), which I am more concerned about. At present, this index is around 4%. If the index continues to fall to around 2%, I will feel that our industry has reached a stage peak.
NingNing: Justin and I have a lot of similarities in methodology. I particularly value market cycles. I even think that the impact of events on the market is usually only short-term, or even minimal. Take the recent quantum computing breakthrough and Microsofts refusal to include Bitcoin in its balance sheet. These things may seem very specific at the moment, but from a long-term trend perspective, they have almost no impact. In contrast, I pay more attention to internal cyclical forces such as monetary cycles, the Merrill Lynch clock cycle of the US economy, and even the larger Kondratieff cycle, as well as short-term seasonal effects. In various financial markets, including US stocks, A shares, and the crypto market we are in, there are basically spring and autumn markets every year. Of course, these markets will vary depending on the external cycles, such as when they come early or late, the magnitude, and when they end early or late, but these two markets basically exist every year. At present, we are in the autumn market. This wave of callback can be found from many angles, such as the decline in liquidity during Christmas, the rapid rise in the previous period triggered the motivation to stop profit, or various reasons can be found from other angles. But I dont think this affects the sustainability of the autumn market, after all, autumn is not over yet. There may be a market adjustment period during Christmas, but given that it has been squeezed quickly before, I think the Christmas and Spring Festival market may remain relatively strong. Moreover, a series of policy expectations introduced by Trump after he officially took office may usher in a more intense spring market. Therefore, at least I think it is better to adopt a right-side trading strategy and not to stop profit too early.
What are the current bottlenecks of AI products? What are the possible variables that can amplify the application of AI industry?
Kevin: Although AI has been very popular in the past two years, it has actually been developed for a long time. I was exposed to AI knowledge related to natural language processing when I was in college in 2001, and I also used machine learning to complete the Super Mario game in 2014-2015. Today, generative AI has increased the interaction between AI and ordinary people. Everyone is paying attention to AI, but we must understand that AI is developing gradually, not overnight. From 2001 to 2015, and then to the more than ten years of working in education before that, AI has been slowly improving. Now everyone has too high expectations for AI, just like when the Internet of Things just emerged, everyone was arguing about which one is better, Internet Explorer or Firefox, and now everyone is paying attention to OpenAIs ChatGPT, Googles BERT and other infrastructure-level things. In fact, we should pay more attention to application scenarios. When AI develops to the point where it is like a mobile phone APP, everyone doesnt care about the technology behind it, as long as it can be used, then the focus will return to the application, which is also the future opportunity of AI.
Justin: Since ChatGPT was launched last year, I have been deeply researching the direction of AI and thinking about its entrepreneurial and investment opportunities. Last year, there was only a large language model, which was slightly lacking in functions and was mainly used for learning, research and translation. This year, AI agent appeared. It is a large language model with execution capabilities. After accessing the API interface, it can be applied to various industries. However, the current bottleneck of AI lies in accuracy. When using a large language model last year, there was a 20 to 30 percent probability that its output would be wrong. In the financial field, whether it is market analysis or trading, errors may lead to asset losses; in the field of education, incorrect knowledge will have a negative impact on the knowledge system. Therefore, I hope that in the future, AI and AI agents will be able to improve their accuracy and can be truly applied to various industries.
NingNing: I am a heavy user of AI. The application of AI in the industry is very different from that in traditional fields. It mainly points to the two narratives of AIs autonomous awakening and AI becoming an independent individual. Under the modern legal system, banks will not open independent accounts for AI agents, but cryptocurrencies can create accounts for them. For example, Elisa free framework of ai16z supports the creation of wallet addresses for AI in specific environments, making it an independent individual with property. However, most of its addresses are currently in the privacy stage and not disclosed. In addition, in terms of AIs autonomous awakening, cult-like phenomena such as GOAT may evolve into forms such as AI wife in the future, or connect with other systems such as DID systems to form an economic cycle to cope with the large-scale unemployment caused by AI. Of course, this is just a personal guess, but there may be many stories in this field in the future.
Future goals and plans for Gate AI products
Kevin: I cannot list all the specific features of the product at the moment, because we have many business lines and we are not sure which feature will be launched first. But we have a clear goal, which is giving innovation to the community, not giving the community innovation. This means that every innovative feature we come up with is to make every transaction of the user simpler and more efficient, and to improve the trading experience overall. We will not innovate for the sake of innovation, or use AI simply for the sake of using AI. This is consistent with Gates original concept of Gateway to Crypto. We always adhere to the principle of user priority, first strive to optimize the user experience to the best, and then integrate the corresponding technology. This is the next goal of our product function.
