Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )
Author: Wenser ( @wenser 2010 )
At the beginning of the new year 2025, the market seems to have started a gradual price recovery amidst the volatile decline.
Around 10 am today, the price of BTC once rose above $99,000 and is currently around $98,800; ETH rebounded from around $3,300 on January 1 to above $3,600; SOL also gradually rebounded from around $180 on January 1 to above $210. As the date of Trumps inauguration as the US president approaches, market sentiment is gradually warming up. Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the recent market views in this article for readers reference.
Buying continues: Buying funds at the national, institutional and corporate levels have long existed
The price recovery is naturally inseparable from the influx of buying. After experiencing the Christmas shock, the New Years buying power now seems to still exist for a long time and become increasingly strong.
Data: Bitcoin spot ETF historical cumulative net inflow has reached 35.909 billion US dollars
According to SoSoValue data , as of January 3, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF was US$111.46 billion, the ETF net asset ratio (market value as a percentage of the total market value of Bitcoin) was 5.72%, and the historical cumulative net inflow reached US$35.91 billion; the total net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF was US$13.03 billion, the ETF net asset ratio (market value as a percentage of the total market value of Ethereum) was 3%, and the historical cumulative net inflow reached US$2.64 billion.
BTC Spot ETF Data
ETH Spot ETF Data
In addition, the institutional report also showed confidence in the continued net inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF in 2025.
Steno Research: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are expected to have net inflows of $48 billion and $28.5 billion respectively in 2025; BTC rises to a minimum of $150,000
In a recent report, Steno Research said that its bullish forecasts for BTC and ETH prices reflect an unprecedented favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, a supportive macroeconomic environment marked by falling interest rates and improved liquidity, and Bitcoins historically strong performance after the halving.
It also said, “In addition, institutional adoption is expected to reach unprecedented levels, and the massive inflow of funds into US Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will further drive this trend.”
Steno expects BTC and ETH ETFs to see net inflows of $48 billion and $28.5 billion, respectively, in 2025. In addition, the report said that DApp TVL is expected to exceed $300 billion by 2025, far exceeding the high of about $180 billion in 2021.
Previously, Steno Research said in a report that it expects the price of Bitcoin to rise from about $94,000 to a minimum of $150,000 in 2025, while the price of ETH will more than double from $3,400 to at least $8,000. That is, the ETH/BTC exchange rate will rise from the current $0.0357 to $0.06 in the next 12 months, similar to the price trend of previous cycles, and altcoins will become the focus of attention.
El Salvador has added 5 BTC since the New Year, and currently holds about 6,009 BTC
According to today’s on-chain data , El Salvador has increased its holdings by 5 BTC since the New Year, bringing its total holdings to approximately 6,009 BTC.
MARA CEO: Will continue to increase Bitcoin holdings in 2025, currently holding more than 40,000
According to the CEO of Bitcoin mining company MARA Digital, Bitcoin holdings will continue to be increased in the balance sheet in 2025.
MARA currently owns a total of 44,893 BTC, worth over $4 billion.
Deribit BTC block options buy January 10th $97,000 call options, totaling 150 BTC
According to Lin Chen, head of Asia-Pacific business at Deribit, the largest BTC option today was a user who paid $559,000 to buy a $97,000 call option expiring on January 10 (this Friday), for a total of 150 BTC.
Standard Chartered Bank: BTC price will reach $200,000 in 2025, MicroStrategy will buy more BTC
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that the price of Bitcoin will double. He once said in a report that he expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
In addition, he expects institutional investment in Bitcoin to continue to maintain or exceed the pace of 2024 next year. The bank noted that since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin purchases from institutions have reached 683,000 Bitcoins, mainly through the US spot Bitcoin ETF and MicroStrategy, a software company and an effective alternative to investing in Bitcoin. Geoffrey Kendrick said that MicroStrategys Bitcoin purchases in 2025 should reach or exceed the purchases in 2024. He also added that pension funds should also include Bitcoin in their portfolios through US spot Bitcoin ETFs starting next year as the incoming Trump administration is expected to reform the regulations on digital currency investments by so-called traditional financial (TradFi) companies. Kendrick pointed out: Even a small allocation of $40 trillion in US retirement funds will significantly push up Bitcoin prices. We will be more optimistic if Bitcoin is adopted faster by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) or potential US strategic reserve funds.
In addition, major listed companies are still carrying out their own Bitcoin increase plans in an orderly manner.
Blockstream founder: MicroStrategy may have increased its holdings of BTC
Blockstream founder Adam Back wrote : “I believe MicroStrategy has completed the purchase of Bitcoin, but it must be announced to the market through an 8-K filing before or after normal trading hours when the stock market opens.”
Earlier news, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor released information related to Bitcoin Tracker for the ninth consecutive week.
Statistics: 11 listed companies have increased their holdings of Bitcoin in the past week
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley wrote : According to data from HODL15 Capital, 11 listed companies have bought more Bitcoin since last Monday. In 2025, a large number of companies will join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has developed a script for a movement.
Metaplanet plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 by 2025
As a Japanese listed company that has tasted the sweetness of the Bitcoin Reserve Plan, Metaplanets buying will continue.
The company’s CEO Simon Gerovich said recently that the goal this year is to increase Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 by leveraging its “most value-added capital market tools”, with the goal of promoting Bitcoin adoption in Japan and around the world and “expanding Metaplanet’s influence in Japan and the Bitcoin ecosystem.”
“We’re not just building a company, we’re building a movement,” Gerovich said.
Compared with the continued growth in buying, the dumping force has also eased to a considerable extent after entering 2025.
The selling pressure has eased: the inflow of exchanges and the outflow of miners have both decreased
As the main sources of selling pressure, exchange inflows and miner outflows, which have historically been regarded as reliable indicators, have also fallen sharply recently.
BTC exchange inflows and miner outflows have fallen sharply since November 2024, indicating a reduction in selling pressure
Since November 2024, Bitcoin exchange inflows (the total amount of BTC transferred to exchanges) and miner outflows (the amount of BTC sent to exchanges by miners) have fallen sharply, indicating a reduction in selling pressure . According to CryptoQuant, BTC exchange inflows in November 2024 peaked at 98,748 BTC on November 25, following about two months of high exchange inflow activity. In December 2024, BTC exchange inflows declined, but remained considerable, with the total number of bitcoins sent to exchanges ranging from 11,000 to 79,000 per day.
The decline in exchange inflows was accompanied by a decline in miner outflows, suggesting less selling pressure from Bitcoin miners, who often sell off their BTC holdings to cover operating expenses. Miner outflows have been falling since miners took profits during Bitcoin’s historic price rally following Trump’s election in November.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that outflows peaked on November 11, when miners sent 25,367 BTC to exchanges, when the price of Bitcoin reached about $88,000. On January 1, 2025, miners sent 5,489 BTC to exchanges, 5,748 BTC on January 2, and 2,133 BTC on January 3.
Macro and micro forecasting game: cautious optimists and highly optimistic people have different opinions
As for the macro-level forecasts and micro-level personal views on the cryptocurrency market, at present, cautious optimism and high optimism coexist. Some traders also believe that they should sell profits in time and stop profits during the trading period.
Greeks.live: European and American users gradually return from the holidays, and the market heat is rising again
On January 3, Adam from Greeks.live Research Institute wrote : 20,000 BTC options expired, the Put Call Ratio was 0.69, the maximum pain point was $97,000, and the nominal value was $1.93 billion. 206,000 ETH options expired, the Put Call Ratio was 0.81, the maximum pain point was $3,400, and the nominal value was $710 million. Today is the first weekly option delivery in 2025, with a total of $2.6 billion in options expiring. European and American users are gradually returning from vacation, and the overall market heat has rebounded. However, the theme of this week is still adjustment, the market is clearly divided, and there is no more sustained hot spot yet.
Trump will officially take office as the new president of the United States later this month, and the entire market is very optimistic about 2025. However, the obvious correction of US stocks in recent days has also brought greater uncertainty to the market. This months interest rate meeting is very likely to maintain no interest rate cut, and there is no more positive news in the market in the short term.
US investment bank’s view: BTC market value is expected to reach a quarter of gold by the end of this year, and BTC price will exceed $220,000
US investment bank HC Wainwrigh predicts that the price of Bitcoin will reach $225,000 per coin by the end of 2025, which means that the market value of Bitcoin will reach $4.5 trillion, accounting for about 25% of the market value of gold.
Finance professor: Supportive U.S. regulation will boost BTC, and it is entirely possible for the price to reach $200,000
Carol Alexander, a professor of finance at the University of Sussex in the United Kingdom, believes that a $200,000 Bitcoin is possible. Carol Alexander noted, I am more optimistic about 2025 than I have ever been, adding that the price of Bitcoin could easily reach $200,000, but there is no sign of lower volatility. Alexander clarified that she does not actually own any Bitcoin herself. By next summer, I expect it to be trading around $150,000 plus or minus $50,000. Supportive regulation in the United States will boost Bitcoin, however, the lack of regulation on cryptocurrency exchanges will continue to cause volatility as high leverage trading will cause prices to fluctuate both up and down.
It is reported that Carol Alexander has a good record in predicting the price of Bitcoin. Last year, she believed that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 in 2024, which is indeed the case.
Mining company practitioners: Bitcoin may reach a peak of $180,000-190,000 in 2025, but there will be occasional sharp pullbacks
Youwei Yang, chief economist at cryptocurrency mining company BIT Mining (BTCM), predicts that the price of Bitcoin will be between $180,000 and $190,000 in 2025, but he also remains cautious and believes that the price may fall back.
He noted: Bitcoin may see significant upward momentum and occasional sharp pullbacks in 2025. In moments of market shock, such as a major stock market crash, Bitcoin may temporarily fall to around $80,000. However, the overall trend is expected to remain upward. Based on these dynamics, it is predicted that Bitcoin may reach a peak of $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, which is consistent with historical cycle patterns and the trend of more and more mainstream institutions investing in cryptocurrencies.
Ledn Chief Investment Officer: BTC is expected to hit $160,000 by the end of this year or early next year
John Glover, chief investment officer of cryptocurrency lending firm Ledn, said Bitcoin could fall back to $89,000 before rebounding and reaching $125,000 by the end of the first quarter.
From there, Bitcoin could retrace again to $100,000 before hitting $160,000 by late 2025 or early 2026, Glover said, a forecast that is more conservative than the $180,000 and $200,000 forecasts from asset managers VanEck and Bitwise.
Analyst: Bitcoin is expected to remain range-bound and may climb to $105,000 in January
Bitfinex analysts expect Bitcoin to climb to $105,000 in January. Bitfinex analysts said , We expect Bitcoin to maintain a range-bound market trend as investors are looking to deploy capital across a range of different asset classes. We forecast Bitcoin to fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000 by the end of January.
On January 20, the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump could be a significant catalyst for cryptocurrency prices. Expectations for the new US administration include friendlier cryptocurrency regulation and improved US economic policies. However, according to Bitfinex analysts, Trumps inauguration may not immediately trigger a rise in cryptocurrency prices. We expect the new US administration to bring more clarity to cryptocurrency policy, but we do not expect the inauguration itself to be a significant price-raising event, but rather to lay the foundation for cryptocurrencies to open a path with fewer obstacles in the United States.
Placeholder Partner: BTC, ETH, SOL look strong regardless of time frame
Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder, wrote : “Regardless of the time frame, BTC, ETH, and SOL look strong and will soon rise again.”
It also added that, like previous trends, Meme coin in the past few weeks has also become a good indicator of increased risk appetite.
1coinfirmation founder: It is expected that countries will try to adopt Microstrategys strategy to increase their holdings of Bitcoin
Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, wrote that it is likely that we will soon see countries competing to try to adopt MicroStrategys strategy:
-Issuance of government bonds of different maturities (5-year, 7-year, 10-year, etc.)
- Use bonds to buy cryptocurrencies
-Repay the loan on time according to the loan term
At the same time, he said that the question now is not whether countries will do so, but what kind of cryptocurrency they will buy. It may start with BTC, but the next will be ETH. Any currency that is sufficiently decentralized can participate in it. The government bond market is larger than the stock market.
Negative bearishness and profit-taking: mature views of well-known investment research institutions and well-known traders
Compared with the optimistic attitude towards BTC, the markets views on ETH and altcoins are relatively rational. Here we select some of the more representative views for display.
10x Research: ETH is expected to underperform BTC again in 2025, and is not optimistic about the Pectra upgrade
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said in a recent market report : While the possibility of new catalysts cannot be ruled out, we would not be surprised if Ethereum struggles to achieve a meaningful rebound in 2025. While we understand Ethereums volatility, we believe it is still a poor medium-term investment and expect ETH to underperform BTC again in 2025. Therefore, our position on Ethereum remains clear: avoid.
Thielen said one of the most interesting indicators to watch in 2025 will be the trend of active validators. However, he noted that the one-month growth rate of Ethereum validators has turned negative, falling by about 1% in the past 30 days, raising concerns about the increased risk of more validators exiting the network. Thielen said the increase in unstaking seems logical and he believes Ethereum lacks real demand beyond staking.
He also said that Ethereums Duncan upgrade in March last year (which reduced the networks gas fees and allowed it to process more transactions) was six months late, missing the peak of the Meme coin rally, causing the market to turn to the more cost-effective Solana alternative. He is also skeptical about the Pectra upgrade scheduled for early 2025, saying that of the 19 upgrades to date, only two have had a clear positive impact on ETH prices, and these upgrades all occurred during the Bitcoin bull market. He added: The three major catalysts for Ethereum in 2024 have basically failed and have not brought much value overall.
Veteran trader: Trumps inauguration may be a key trigger for the crypto market to regain bullish momentum
Veteran cryptocurrency trader The Crypto Dog recently said that the cryptocurrency market may not see significant fluctuations before President-elect Trump takes office on January 20. He speculated that this political event could be a key trigger for renewed bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market. He believes that Bitcoin and altcoins may remain stagnant before the inauguration, which is exactly the same as market behavior in previous election cycles. According to his analysis, historical patterns show that Bitcoin tends to rise after a new US president takes office. In 2021, Bitcoin rose by more than 100% shortly after President Biden took office. Similarly, Bitcoin also saw a major breakthrough around the inauguration in 2017.
Despite these observations, he also admitted that his predictions could be overturned if the stock market, especially the SP 500, continues to rise. He stressed that since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, there has been a strong correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets, which suggests that continued stock market strength could lead to a more optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies in January.
It is worth mentioning that there are about two weeks left before Trump’s inauguration, and the market shows that Trump-related concept coins are generally rising .
Analysis: The number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530 in the past two months
On-chain analyst Ali shared Glassnode data and said : In the past two months, the number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530.
Odaily Planet Daily believes that this move may mean that more retail investors will exit the market and the BTC chip holding structure will become further concentrated.
Trader Eugene: The bull market has entered the second half, and a better strategy is high-frequency cashing
Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio wrote that as we enter the second half of this cycle, the strategy should be to sell more frequently rather than holding for the long term.
