Original title: Behind the 2000% surge in RFC tokens: Crypto capital games under the narrative of whale traders and Musk
Original author: Alvis, Mars Finance
1. Phenomenal surge: From marginal meme to 100-fold myth
Late at night on April 13, 2025, the Solana on-chain monitoring alarm suddenly sounded - the price of a Meme token called RFC (Retard Finder Coin) soared 200% in 15 minutes, with a market value of over $100 million and a price spike of $0.199. The climax of this carnival was ignited by a huge buy order worth $1.2 million. While the market is still speculating whether this is a collective madness of retail investors, on-chain data reveals a more complex capital game: a sophisticated network of at least 3 related address groups, 5 market makers and $180 million in hot money is pushing this community carnival into an unpredictable abyss.
1.1 Capital riot: a hundredfold leap in two weeks
Since Musk liked the Retard Finder social account for the first time on March 29, RFC has started a crazy rise. From $0.003 on April 1 to the historical high of $0.2 on April 13, its price curve shows a typical step-by-step control feature: every time it breaks through an integer barrier, there must be a huge amount of buy orders, and the callback range is always controlled within 15%. This abnormal stability is rare among Meme coins, which have always been known for their high volatility.
1.2 The Whale Appears: The Secret of $120 Million in Liquidity
In the early morning of April 14, the on-chain detective @CaNoe disclosed key evidence: the whale address starting with 0x 3 d... bought $1.2 million worth of RFC through four transactions, pushing the market value to over $100 million.
But this is just the tip of the iceberg - the address completed the fund splitting through 14 associated wallets within 3 days, and the actual purchase scale exceeded 8 million US dollars, accounting for 23% of the total transaction volume.
Even more shocking is the path of capital flow:
1. Upstream funding pool: 100 million USDC comes from a TRUMP market maker address, transferred through Gg 5 yX...
2. Relay network: 8 hsoX... address groups completed 10 cross-chain conversions, involving three public chains: ETH, SOL, and BASE
3. Terminal operation: Finally, the RFC sweep is completed through 5 newly created addresses on the SOL chain
This three-step capital flow reveals the traders’ sophisticated skills in evading regulation. As crypto analyst Yu Jin said: “This is not a temporary speculation, but a capital layout that has been planned for months.”
2. Dissecting a giant whale: the capital landscape of cross-ecological traders
2.1 Trump Market Maker Re-Equips
By tracing the historical behavior of the 0x3d address, we found that it is deeply bound to the 2024 election concept coin TRUMP.
This address has only interacted with three coins, namely $TRUMP $VIRTUAL $LIBRA. Especially on $TRUMP, it has interacted frequently nearly 50 times, with a total purchase of $7.3m and a total sale of $11.2m. This interaction pattern can basically be determined as the address of a market maker.
At the same time, activities were also carried out on $LIBRA and $VIRTUAL, which are also recognized as super-powerful coins, not to mention that $LIBRA was deeply involved in the manipulation scandal behind the entire foundation (although not many people mention it now).
This typical market maker behavior pattern was perfectly replicated in the RFC campaign. It is worth noting that this address group suddenly cleared all TRUMP positions on March 15, which coincided with the time when RFC started to rise.
2.2 Undercurrent of the Association Network
Digging deeper into the flow of funds, we draw a larger correlation map:
(Data source: GMGN on-chain analysis platform)
These projects together outline the strategic preferences of traders: choose tokens with strong narratives, low circulation, and celebrity endorsements, and create the illusion of liquidity through high-frequency trading. RFC happens to meet all the conditions - Musk interaction, Solana ecosystem support, fixed supply and other characteristics, making it an ideal target for trading.
3. The Musk Effect: The Fatal Temptation of Decentralized Narratives
3.1 From Twitter Interaction to Code Mystery
The outbreak of RFC is no accident. On March 7, when Musk responded to the Retard Finder accounts statement on Twitter that cryptocurrency needs more rebellious spirit, keen capital has smelled the opportunity. On-chain data shows:
March 8-10: 6 new addresses suddenly bought RFC worth $800,000
March 15: The projects official website updates the code base, and the XCorp key appears (Musks company)
April 1: Eric Trump retweets RFC-related tweets, sparking a frenzy in the right-wing community
This three-stage marketing of celebrity interaction-code hint-community communication accurately hits the narrative hunger of the crypto market. Even though Musk has never publicly acknowledged his relationship with RFC, enough coincidences have driven speculators into collective madness.
3.2 The Sword of Damocles in the Concentration of Chips
M7 Research’s on-chain report reveals a more dangerous reality: the top 500 addresses control 36.46% of the RFC supply, of which the green cluster single-address group accounts for 29.61%.
This concentration even exceeds SHIB in 2021 (when the top 10 addresses accounted for 27%), giving whales absolute market control.
We simulated price shocks under different sell-off scenarios:
(The data model is built based on historical Meme coin liquidity data)
This means that of the current daily trading volume of US$120 million, at least US$40 million is fake liquidity - once the whales start selling, the price collapse may be calculated in hours.
4. Ecological resonance: Solana’s wealth-making machine and risk breeding ground
4.1 The Foundation’s Mysterious Promoter
The deep involvement of Solana ecosystem has injected additional momentum into the surge of RFC. On-chain data shows:
March 25: SOL Foundation address transfers 5,000 SOL to RFC development team
April 5: RFC/SOL liquidity pool appears on Serum DEX, with an initial injection value of $2 million
April 12: Solana Ventures associated addresses participate in RFC Community Governance Proposal 7
This kind of overt and covert support makes RFC go beyond the scope of ordinary Meme coins and become a model project to demonstrate the capabilities of the Solana ecosystem. But the question is - when the interests of the project party and the ecosystem builders are deeply bound, has the so-called decentralization become a marketing rhetoric?
4.2 Liquidity Siphon Effect
Since April, TVL on the SOL chain has increased by 16%, but 63% of it comes from Meme coin-related protocols. The price of Sol tokens has risen from a bottom of $95 to the current $130, an increase of more than 35%. The rise of RFC coincides with the critical period of Solanas ecological recovery.
Future deduction: direction selection of capital game
Based on historical data modeling, we predict that RFC may face two paths:
Optimistic scenario: Market makers continue to maintain prices in the range of $0.08-0.12, profit from hedging in the derivatives market, and extend the life cycle to 6-8 weeks
Pessimistic scenario: New hot spots in the Solana ecosystem lead to liquidity transfer, and whales start distribution above $0.15, triggering a callback of more than 60%
The current market may be more inclined to the second possibility - the flash crash of OM coin on April 14 (a 90% drop in a single day) has triggered a chain panic, and investors risk appetite has shrunk rapidly.
