Last week (April 22 to April 28), BTC strongly decoupled from the US stock market and ushered in the largest weekly increase since Trumps victory. BTC spot ETF inflows rebounded. Data showed that the net inflows on the 21st and 22nd were $381 million and $913 million, pushing the BTC price to continue to rise and reach the recent high of $95,758.04, with a maximum increase of 9.97% during the week. The current BTC price is stable at around $94,858. The ETH price rebounded after hitting a low of $1,537.26 at 8:00 on the 22nd, and fluctuated upward to $1,857.47, with a maximum increase of 20.8% during the week. The subsequent price consolidated and formed a strong support near $1,700, and is currently stable at around $1,819. (Data source: Binance spot, April 29, 16:35)
Last week, the three U.S. stock indexes performed differently, and many investors waited to see the earnings of the heavyweight technology stocks this week. As of the close of April 28, the SP 500 rose for five consecutive trading days, the Nasdaq fell slightly, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points in the morning market, but was supported in the late market. As US President Trumps second term approached 100 days, the SP fell nearly 8%, the worst performance of a president in his early inauguration since Nixon in 1973.
Market Interpretation
Crypto market trend reversal signal, short-term funding opportunities emerge
On April 22, Trump publicly stated that the tariffs on US imports were too high and were expected to be significantly reduced. As soon as the news came out, the markets risk aversion weakened and volatility decreased. CME interest rate futures data showed that the market expected the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in June, with three rate cuts throughout the year, which may bring more liquidity.
The Trump administration continues to advance crypto policy, signing an order in March 2025 to establish a strategic BTC reserve and pushing several states to introduce BTC reserve bills. At the same time, the nomination of Paul Atkins, the new chairman of the SEC, may ease regulatory pressure on the crypto industry.
BTC has outperformed the US stock market since mid-March, showing a certain risk-averse attribute. In early April, BTCs RSI and MACD showed a bottom divergence, and the sentiment indicator reached extreme panic. The current MACD has broken through the zero axis, and the market trend has turned from short to long.
On the whole, the easing of tariff policies, expectations of interest rate easing and the advancement of crypto policies may provide support to the market, and there may be opportunities for a reversal in the short-term funding environment.
BTC is decoupled from US stocks, and its safe-haven properties are increasingly recognized in the market
According to a report by CryptoQuant analyst Timo Oinonen, the current correlation coefficient between BTC and US stocks continues to weaken. In the past seven days, BTC has clearly deviated from the SP 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index, and the correlation between traditional stock markets and technology stocks is declining. According to CryptoQuant data, the correlation coefficient between BTC and the SP 500 has dropped from 0.88 at the end of 2024 to 0.77, and the correlation coefficient with Nasdaq has also dropped from 0.91 in January 2025 to 0.83.
BTCs safe-haven properties have been enhanced, and its status as a mainstream investment asset has been gradually recognized by the market. As the market stabilizes, the short-term negative news in the US stock market has been exhausted, the gold price has fallen, and the BTC price has risen accordingly. The increase in BTC prices has exceeded the increase in gold prices this week.
ETH is expected to lead altcoins to a price rebound
Coinglass data shows that the ETH contract market was active on the 29th, with a total open interest of $20.733 billion and an OI/MC ratio of 10%. On April 22, the ETH price broke through $1,695 and then rose to $1,800, with the contract market rising in tandem with the spot market.
Since December 2024, ETH has experienced a 5-month decline, and the proportion of profitable addresses has dropped from 95% to 35%. The MVRV indicator has dropped to 0.8, entering an oversold state, similar to the performance of the 2022 bear market. The cost-basis distribution shows that there is a large long-term holding area near $1850, which may become a support level.
Technically, ETH has rebounded about 30% since November 2024, the MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, and both RSI and MFI are oversold, which may indicate a trend reversal. As the king of altcoins, ETHs on-chain data, contract market and technical aspects all indicate the potential for a trend reversal, which may drive the altcoin market to recover in the short term.
More information
Pay attention to macro data and technology stock earnings reports, and pay attention to market sentiment
This week, macro data and earnings reports of large technology stocks will jointly dominate market sentiment. If there are signs of economic slowdown and divergence in earnings performance expectations, market volatility may increase.
In terms of data, the US non-farm payrolls report will be released on Friday, the US and Europe will release the latest GDP data, and Europe will also release a number of inflation indicators. The Federal Reserve has entered a silent period before the May 7 interest rate meeting, and the comprehensive data may fluctuate the markets expectations for interest rate cuts.
After gold outperformed Mag-7 to become the best performing asset recently, Mag-7s financial report has become an important indicator for the market to assess the future potential of large technology stocks. Recently, more than half of Mag-7 members (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple) will release financial reports. Although the markets expectations for corporate earnings (EPS) have been significantly lowered, investors are cautious about economic growth.
Trumps dinner news caused the TRUMP token to surge 40%, and the price fell after a short-term rise
On April 23, Trumps meme coin TRUMP officially announced that it would hold a dinner at a golf club near Washington on May 22, inviting the top 220 investors in terms of coin holdings. As soon as the news came out, the price of TRUMP tokens soared by more than 40%, from $9.3 to $16. But then the details of the dinner were revealed, indicating that President Trump might be absent, which weakened market sentiment and caused the token price to fall. It was suspected that the project party was raising the price to sell.
The dinner also revealed that the top 25 coin holders would have the opportunity to receive a private reception from Trump and visit the White House. The announcement required investors to increase their holdings as much as possible before May 12 to improve their rankings. This news attracted market attention in the short term, but it also increased volatility, and investors need to be wary of related risks.
Stablecoin Market Expected to Grow to $500B to $750B
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) said that the stablecoin market is expected to grow to $500 billion to $750 billion in the next few years. Data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, the stablecoin market size has reached $218 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%. In 2024, the transaction volume of stablecoins on the chain is $5.6 trillion, and in 2025, the monthly transaction volume will exceed $700 billion, surpassing Visas annual payment scale.
USDT and USDC dominate the market. With the support of EU MiCA regulations and Dubai DIFC, stablecoins occupy a core position in cross-border payments and transactions. The US Treasury Secretary proposed to review the regulatory barriers of blockchain and stablecoins to promote market development. Yield-based stablecoins (YBS) have gradually emerged as an emerging trend in the market and are expected to occupy 20-30% of the stablecoin market in a sluggish market. The rapid growth of stablecoins and the improvement of the regulatory environment provide strong support for their future integration into the global financial system.
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