MVC Market Viewpoint Express (3.9-3.15)

Recently, tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and the market's pricing of the Iran conflict is still evolving. Our assessment is that the US is highly unlikely to commit ground troops, and internally, Iran is more likely to use external pressure to legitimize a reshuffle of its power structure. If oil prices rise by 20%, it will trigger a US policy-level response mechanism, keeping the situation largely under control. As long as oil prices remain below $100, geopolitical premiums will continue to unsettle market sentiment. However, the long-term trend (especially for commodities/precious metals) remains in an upward channel, and we plan to add to our positions on dips with new capital.

Against this backdrop, we are focusing on three main themes:

1. Commodities and Resources. Geopolitical risks combined with the restructuring of the credit system are keeping gold prices elevated. We remain bullish on the precious metals sector and have gradually initiated positions in gold mining-related assets. Copper, as a medium-to-long-term allocation, will benefit from the future liquidity expansion cycle; we are simultaneously watching for entry opportunities.

2. Digital Assets. BTC has recently shown relative strength compared to stocks, but clear trend reversal signals have yet to emerge. We maintain a cautious stance, prioritizing drawdown control while awaiting confirmation of a turning point in US dollar liquidity.

3. AI and Technology. Current market pricing for leading AI companies is already quite full, making it difficult to find excess consensus in the short term. Future performance will be highly dependent on changes in the global liquidity environment.

Overall, we continue to focus on the two core themes of "restructuring of the traditional credit system" and "the rise of the East and decline of the West," prioritizing the allocation of RMB-denominated resource assets to seek resilience within certainty.