Has DeFi collapsed? Buying the bottom also depends on three indicators
Editor's Note: This article comes fromHot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18), Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)
Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)
, Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Many people are commemorating 94 in Moments, but I think some people also named this wave "August 21 Incident" (Mynah, Two Treasures and One Sister). .
In fact, sometimes I also wonder if this starling will sell his account to "Gouzhuang", and tease us to have fun every time before smashing the plate, otherwise why is the timing so accurate? When the Weibo in the picture above was posted There were still 11,400 in the pie, and it dropped by 1,000 knives after ten hours. .
Hello everyone, I'm Pepe, I'm just joking at the beginning, don't take it seriously, I just hope to have a relaxed atmosphere as much as possible in today's somewhat confused market.
Looking at today, many people are looking for reasons. Some people think that the collapse of DeFi caused a retreat of funds or a lack of liquidity. The impact of overseas capital markets will be greater, and if there is a word of comfort, we are not the worst:
Apple directly evaporated 179.9 billion U.S. dollars, almost the entire market value of Bitcoin, within a day.
When I wandered around in various communities in the afternoon, I felt that the sentiment of buying bottoms was still very strong, but I think it is admirable to enter the market now, especially the courage to enter the market (especially the one who copied grapefruit this morning also made a small profit), and the old leek concept The mainstream currencies in China (including btc) have not risen much in this wave, there are no bubbles, and the price range is not considered dangerous.
However, I personally prefer to wait and see, especially if I buy for a long time, not just a rebound.
The other is the simplest way to look at the line. Regardless of the daily or weekly line of BTC, the downward trend is an unfinished feeling.
1. Panic and Greed Index
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
A better situation in the future is also a previous view of overseas analysts. If it falls below 10,000, it may fall to a position of 9700, 9500. It will be very short and then go to the next wave (insert a magic stick prediction: I think October There will still be another wave); if it is worse, it may be another two or three months of shocks, just like last year at about this time.
Then if you don’t consider the external situation, let’s talk about the inside of our currency circle, and you can observe the following three indicators later:
1. Panic and Greed Index
It won't tell you the precise buying and selling points, but it is still very helpful for feeling the market conditions. For example, there are not many coins that have been cut in half from yesterday to today, but the panic and greed index has been cut directly from 80 to 40. From extreme greed Turn to panic:
This is a graph of the indicator changes in the past two years:
Generally speaking, if you want to pursue the cost-effectiveness of buying, you still have to wait until the time of extreme panic. We don’t know if there is any chance in this wave. At present, it is only back to mid-June, which is where the defi mining boom just started.
2. Gas fee
History has actually proved many times that whether it is the bitcoin transfer fee or the gas fee of ether, every time the rise cannot last for a long time.
This round of more enthusiasm is brought about by the Ethereum ecology, so I think that if you want to really wait for a trough, you may have to wait for the gas to cool down. The gas cost has not decreased significantly:
The bullet seemed to fly a little longer.
secondary title
3. Has defi collapsed?
The logic of the defi bull market is now clear to everyone. Every trading pair in every dex needs a liquidity pool. Through token incentives, everyone can lock various encrypted assets on it. ——Locking—earning token income and the currency price is still rising—more buying and locking, such a bull market formed by a positive cycle.
(1）defipulse.com
It should be noted that when will this be the inflection point? I think it will be when more funds, especially speculative funds, find that the income can no longer cover the decline in the mortgaged assets, and they will choose to redeem and flee. Then this cycle It may become that withdrawing liquidation - price drop - more redemption - reduced liquidity leads to faster price drop.
(2) debank.com/ranking/locked_value
The chain reaction here will take some time, and it may not necessarily be the peak now, because no one knows, maybe a "savior Internet celebrity" will appear next week, and I will continue to take a breath, just saying that if it is already It is the high point of the three waves, and there is still a process to collapse.
It can be seen that compared with the value of locked assets in the previous two days, there has been a slight correction today. The total locked funds are currently 8.8 billion US dollars. However, it should also be noted that this reduction is likely only due to the decline in the price of encrypted assets such as ether. Because I see that ETH's lock-up quantity chart is still in an upward growth state:
epilogue
This is also a website about defi data. Compared with defipulse, the data of new small Internet celebrity projects will be clearer. It has a lock ranking list, and you can observe the changes in the amount of locked funds of these projects (note that it is Updated daily, not real time):
Judging from the 24-hour changes, the new generation of DeFi is relatively unstable, and the outflow of funds will be much larger. Compared with mainstream mining projects, the flow of funds is stable. In addition, you can also pay more attention to the rate of return of the big uncle (YFI) machine gun pool. As we said before, YFI is to mine on behalf of everyone. If this part is no longer profitable, it may be when the market valuation returns to normal. .
