Multi-aspect analysis of the DeFi bubble burst time and process
Editor's Note: This article comes fromCybtc Blockchain (ID: cybtc_com), reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
Cybtc Blockchain (ID: cybtc_com)
, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
From June to September this year, Defi has gone through a quarter unknowingly, and the market has also experienced a crazy money-making effect. During this period, Defi has a cooling trend, which is mainly manifested in the following aspects:
1. There are almost no innovative DeFi projects on Ethereum, and there is a general trend of convergence, that is to say, there are more similar projects.
2. The rate of return of DeFi projects on Eos and Tron is gradually decreasing, and the price of mined coins is also decreasing, and some people have suffered losses.
4. Defi is transferred to other public chains, the technology is becoming more and more mature, and the technical barriers are further reduced, and there will be a trend of "rotten streets" in the future.
From this perspective, the last wave of defi hype can only turn to other non-mainstream public chains, such as "Ontology", "Biyuan", "iost" and other projects, and after this wave of hype is completed, if If there are no other innovative defi projects to detonate the market, then there will be insufficient stamina and unsustainable phenomena, and the collapse of the bubble may occur.
So this leads to what is said in the title, how long will the DeFi bubble last? Here we compare the characteristics of defi hype and currency hype, and finally draw a conclusion.
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Defi's own development
The development of Defi started from the Ethereum in June. The current timeline for the development of DeFi on Ethereum is that June is the outbreak period of liquidity mining, July enters the rapid development period, and August enters the mature period. , Entering the finishing work in September, it is not sure how long this finishing will last.
Defi on the eos chain started in July, developed in August, matured at the end of August, and ended in mid-September, mainly because no new projects appeared and the rate of return continued to decrease.
Defi on TRON started at the end of July and early August, and matured at the end of August. The shadow of the bubble basically appeared in the first ten days of September, and now there is also a trend of ending. The main performance is that the price of mined tokens basically plummets. Moreover, there is no continuous profit-making effect, and the emergence of new exchange public chain defi mining has squeezed a part of the space.
At present, we can see that the DeFi of the exchange has only appeared not long ago, and its development is relatively rapid. This is the development period, and it has not yet officially entered the mature period.
In addition, the DeFi of other public chains has also begun to appear one after another. It is still in the development period and has not yet matured. Of course, we still have some doubts about whether the DeFi of other public chains can have a mature and prosperous scene here. The main reason is The development of other public chains may not be able to keep up. It is enough for one or two DeFi projects to appear in a public chain. If there are more, the participants may not have enough energy.
What needs to be explained here is that the further the future, the more powerful the profit-making effect of defi will be. That is to say, the defi made by other public chains and exchange public chains will basically not be as popular as the previous defi projects like Ethereum, and Because the following public chains are relatively scattered, the development energy of the defi projects of each public chain may not be so sufficient.
In addition, the number of participants in these public chains is relatively small, so it is generally enough to have one or two liquid mining DeFi projects on a public chain. If there are more, there will be an imbalance between input and output, which is also What the public chain project party does not want to see, so the further back, the heat is actually getting smaller and smaller, so the heat shown in the picture is getting lower and lower.
At the same time, the total popularity will usher in a rapid increase in development every time a new mining public chain is launched, and if the popularity dissipates, the decline in the total popularity will decrease rapidly. The dotted line in the figure indicates short The path that may be followed in time, we can roughly estimate with the naked eye that the possible end of the defi bubble is around mid-to-late October.
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The hype development of the currency circle
It has been more than ten years since the early chaos and widespread hype in the currency circle. The early hype is less representative, and as the analysis target, there may be deviations. Therefore, we focus on analyzing the development from 16 years to the present.
We all know that the second half of 2016 to the whole year of 2017 is a big bull market, but this big bull market is also divided into several stages. The first half of 2017 lasted for about half a year, and the first half of 2017 lasted for about 5 months, and the middle was about 3 months. Among them, Bitcoin fork was used as one of the triggers, and 94 was used as the watershed in the second half of the year. , From the end of the callback to the hot development, it basically lasted for 4 months. It was not until the beginning of the lunar calendar in 2018 that the currency circle officially entered the callback, which is the moment when bulls turn bears.
Then we can basically calculate that the time of each stage in the bull market is as short as 3 months and as long as 6 months.
After the bull market ended, in the bear market, we saw fcoin’s liquidity mining hype, which caused a hype time of about 3 months, and ieo caused a hype time of about half a year, so this is what we call 3-6 within a month's time frame.
