MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

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密客资本
3 months ago
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本月,加密市场的注意力仍然集中在资金流而不是基本面上。美国的BTC现货ETF通过2个月后,出现了连续4天的净流出(3 月 18 日至 21 日期间净流出 8.36 亿美元),而第一梯队贝莱德和富达,以及其他基金的正流入,则抵消了灰度比特币信托GBTC 的流出,这表明我们正在见证一些资本转移。同时,我们看到,获利了结的矿工们和ETF净流入之间的博弈,正在推动推动震荡行情的持续。

Introduction:

This month, the crypto market’s focus remains on flows rather than fundamentals. After 2 months, the BTC spot ETF in the United States experienced 4 consecutive days of net outflows (net outflows of US$836 million between March 18 and 21), while the first-tier BlackRock and Fidelity, as well as other funds Positive inflows are offsetting outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC, suggesting we are witnessing some capital transfers. At the same time, we see that the game between profit-taking miners and net ETF inflows is driving the continuation of the volatile market.

1. Macroscopic perspective

1.1 The rise in US stocks did not meet expectations, but the breadth of expansion may continue

The U.S. stock markets Q1 gains have boosted stock investor confidence, but market sentiment has yet to reach the mania levels that typically herald stock market tops.

According to Bank of Americas latest report, its sell-side indicator edged up 22 basis points to 55% in March, the highest level since May 2022. The Sell Indicator is a contrarian sentiment indicator that tracks the average recommended allocation to balanced fund stocks by Wall Street sell-side strategists. When this indicator is the same as or lower than the average recommendation, then there is a 94% chance that stock market returns will be positive over the following 12 months.

Subramanian, a strategist at Bank of America, pointed out that the current indicator value means that U.S. stocks will rise by at least 13% in the next year.

The rise in U.S. stocks may have boosted confidence. Sentiment in U.S. stocks rose in March, but it is far from euphoric levels. Bank of America expects that as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the return on cash will fall to 3% in two years, and the amount of money in retirement accounts will Trillions of dollars in cash will be moved into stocks.

Strategist Subramanian also said the breadth expansion in U.S. stocks is likely to continue.

The percentage of stocks outperforming the market rose to 60% in March from 40% the previous month, the highest level since December. The rise in U.S. stocks is no longer the result of technology stocks “outstanding”. Market breadth indicators have improved significantly, and cyclical stocks have collectively risen. The Big Seven tech stocks gains petered out in March, rising just 1.6% on a market-cap weighted basis, their worst performance since December, while energy and financials, outperformers in cyclical sectors, gained nearly 12% in the first quarter.

1.2 The BTC market shock is coming, and about 2 million BTC are on the verge of losing money

Following the first week of net outflows from the US BTC spot ETF in January, the BTC spot ETF experienced 4 consecutive days of net outflows in mid-March, causing BTC prices to fall -15.4% from the new high of $73,100 hit on March 13. , falling to $61,200 on March 20. The BTC price then recovered to $70,000 and began to fluctuate around this price as the ETF turned to net inflows.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

As shown in the chart above, when the market reached an all-time high (ATH) of $73,200, investors sold on-chain, locking in over $2.6 billion in realized profits. About 40% of this profit-taking can be attributed to the long-term holder group, including investors who withdrew their money from the GBTC trust. The remaining $1.56 billion in realized profits was locked in by short-term holders, with traders taking advantage of incoming liquidity and market momentum. Realized profits for both groups have reached similar magnitudes as during the peak of the 2021 bull market.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

As the price retreated from its all-time high to its recent low of $61,200, a total of 2 million Bitcoins moved from profitable to lossy status, before the market rebounded to $66,500, approximately 1 million Bitcoins BitCoin has returned to profitable status. As shown in the figure above, we can see:

  • The cost basis of approximately 1 million Bitcoins ranges from $61,200 to $66,500;

  • The cost basis of approximately 1 million Bitcoins ranges from $66,500 to an all-time high of $73,200;

Comparing past data, after the 22-year bull market ended, BTC prices did not cover costs until 2024, and miners began to make profits; from the supply side, the bull market may have just begun, with the participation of traditional institutions and recognition of the value of BTC With the increase, there is a high probability that BTC will allow miners to achieve long-term stable profits like gold, that is, the price of Bitcoin will be stable and higher than the mining cost in the long term.

1.3 After Dencun upgrade, Base and Solana compete for development

The Dencun upgrade was activated on the ETH mainnet on March 13, causing a surge in on-chain activity on many networks. As Base upgraded to use Blobs, Base network transaction fees dropped from US$0.31 to US$0.0005. Soon after, Base TVL exceeded US$1.7 billion, and Bases daily transaction volume also rose to 2 million, an increase of 350%.

Along with the crazy market of Meme coins, in addition to the sharp rebound in Solanas activity, Base also took advantage of the significant reduction in network fees to join Solana in arranging development, allowing the FOMO sentiment of Meme coins to almost dominate the market in March.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

Judging from the performance of transaction fees on Base, during periods of low congestion, the median transaction fees on these networks have been below $0.01; but during periods of congestion, transaction fees on Base soared to pre-Dencun levels, which made some pricing Transactions that are too low are held in a pending state until market fees return to the target rate for their execution, which results in higher median transaction costs during periods of congestion.

In contrast, Solana is able to always maintain a low median fee because it does not have computing unit-based pricing (that is, the fee is not directly related to computing resource consumption) and lacks an effective priority fee mechanism. But this approach incentivizes people to send spam transactions to the network to increase the likelihood of transaction packaging, resulting in a large number of discarded and failed transactions on Solana.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

forSolanaandBaseHowever, their scalability roadmaps are still very long, and there are different trade-offs in the routes they take:

  • The Base team is considering directly increasing the target capacity of its chain in the short term, with the next big bottleneck focusing on optimizing execution, particularly in handling state growth. However, it may take some time to resolve the long-term state growth problem, which means that for some time to come, there may be continued price spikes during periods of congestion;

  • Solana Labs plans to release the v1.18 client version in mid-April to solve some of their existing problems by upgrading the scheduler mechanism; and the Solana Foundation has been promoting a more optimized architecture, including implementing priority fees and optimizing computing units The use of, and other Sybil-resistant mechanisms that can improve overall network performance;

2. Industry data

2.1 Market value ranking data

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

Under the general rising market this month, the market value of the TOP 10 tokens has increased to varying degrees. Except for Solana, which surpassed BNB for a short period of time and jumped to 4th place in the ranking, the overall ranking has not changed much. Looking at the 30-day increase, DOGE increased by 116% and ranked first, followed by SOL with 67.9% and BNB with 46.6%, and BTC ranked fourth with 24.9%.

The huge increase in DOGE and SOL mainly comes from the Meme currency market in March. The skyrocketing prices of PEPE, BOME, WIF, DOGE, and FLOKI have been staged in turn. SOL has become the cornerstone of the prosperity of the Meme ecology, thus driving the upward trend of SOL currency price and market value. . Currently, both Base Chain and BNB Chain are empowering and promoting the activity and development of Meme coins. It is expected that the Meme market will continue in April.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

Among the top 100 tokens by market capitalization, the tokens with the highest gains in March were dogwifhat (+480.3%), FLOKI (+412.8%), and FLOKI (+256.0%). Its growth trend is distributed throughout the month. Combined with the hot trend of the Meme ecology on Base Chain, this high-growth Meme market is likely to continue in April. In addition, the AI ​​​​track and BTC ecosystem have become obviously popular recently and are expected to perform well in April.

2.2 Stablecoin inflow and outflow

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

The stablecoin inflow trend in March has performed well, and the total stablecoin volume has exceeded $150B. Judging from the starting slope, this growth may still be accelerating. It is expected that as this cycle of market conditions continues to be strong, this growth rate will Continue and peak within the next 3 – 6 months.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

The fastest growing stablecoin this month is USDe, with an increase of 156%; followed by USDC, with an increase of 17.79%; and FDUSD, which had the highest increase in the previous two months, fell by 11.01%; although there is a lot of interest in USDe in the industry Doubtful, but its rapid growth seems to indicate that the role of algorithmic stablecoins will become more important in this round of market conditions.

USDe is issued by Ethena. As of March 30, the supply exceeded 1.5 billion, and the contract positions opened by this protocol accounted for 15% of the global ETH contract positions. Seraphim, head of growth at Ethena, tweeted: The next step is to include BTC as collateral, and plans to expand the issuance scale of USDe to more than $5 billion in September.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

In terms of USD inflows, the growth trend is the same as that of the overall stablecoin. The highest single-day net inflow was $1.34 B on March 25. Although there were occasional short-term net outflows during the period, the amount and frequency of the net outflows were far lower than the net outflows. inflow. In addition, judging from the news, the buying power of American institutions in the market is still very strong, which is bound to continue to drive the increase in USD inflows.

2.3 On-chain TVL ranking

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

The TVL on the overall chain showed obvious fluctuations in March, with a clear downward trend in the third week of this month, and then gradually recovered and continued to grow in a slower trend. This trend is almost consistent with the trend of the entire market. It is expected that with the short-term correction and larger fluctuations before the halving, the TVL on the chain will also change accordingly, but the currency-based growth trend will continue.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

The most eye-catching one this month is etherr.fi. With the airdrop application and listing of its token ETHFI on major CEXs, etherr.fi’s TVL growth rate reached 74.59%, ahead of other projects in the TOP 10 TVL rankings and far behind. Exceeds EigenLayers 24.99%.

DeFiLlama data: As of March 29, the ETH liquidity re-hypothecation protocol TVL reached $7.678 billion, with EigenLayer ranking first with a TVL of more than $12 billion; followed by ether.fi, with a TVL of more than $3 billion; and Renzo, TVL exceeds $1.6 billion.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

Of the 142 projects with current TVL above $100 million (just 31 last month), the project with the largest TVL growth this month is Hyperlock Finance, a yield-boosting and meta-governance protocol designed to deepen Thruster’s Liquidity, by allowing traders and DAOs to earn additional income on Hyperlock, the Blast ecological project can more easily obtain liquidity. It is expected that with the ecological expansion of Blast, Hyperlock will gather and empower its ecosystem. Specifically, its TVL is likely to continue to grow significantly in the next 3 months.

About Blast, Thruster and Hyperlock

Blast is an optimistic rollup that is compatible with EVM and has native income. The users balance will automatically compound interest and earn additional Blast rewards;

Thruster is Blast’s native DEX, designed to leverage Blast’s native yields, customized liquidity solutions, and simpler UI/UX;

Hyperlock is a protocol based on Thruster and optimized for revenue and governance for Blast Thruster LP and THRUST stakers offer higher rewards;

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

Divided by DeFi category, among the TOP 10 tracks with total TVL ranking this month, the number one spot is still LSD$51.44 billion. Although it has declined from the previous month ($53.3 billion), taking into account the changes in the overall market price, in fact The total is still growing.

In addition, in other tracks, in addition to CDP falling by about $1 billion, there have been varying degrees of growth, especially the Lending, Bridge and Dexes tracks. This also shows that the level of activity on the chain is getting higher and higher, and the market The heat is gradually heating up.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

By chain category, Base’s TVL rose the most in March, reaching 116%; followed by Bitcoin’s TVL, which rose 77.6% (a 694% increase last month), and Solana, which continued to maintain high growth, rose 55.3% (a 694% increase last month). 40.33%).

Base’s high growth and Solana’s continued growth are mainly due to the market’s FOMO sentiment towards MemeCoin and the resulting skyrocketing prices. Recently, BSC has also started to empower MemeCoin after Base. It is expected that the monthly TVL will continue to grow and will still be affected by the MemeCoin market.

2.4 Mining pool data

BTC:

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

At present, the total POW computing power of the entire network has reached 596.81 EH/s, an increase of about 3.78% from last month (575.08 EH/s). Among them, the Top 3 mining pools are still Foundry USA, AntPool and F2 Pool, and there are no updates. However, Foundry USA performed the most stably in terms of growth.

The overall trend of mining pool computing power continues to rise steadily, which means that more funds and computing power are gradually joining in, and more people are willing to consider mining as an investment option in the industry.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

The computing power of the entire network of the BTC mining pool is 14.440 EH/s, an increase of about 3.6 EH/s from the end of last month. It is obvious that as the halving approaches, some miners are increasing computing power equipment in advance to ensure profits, which has also caused this month The luck value of the block is unstable and declining (the current 30-day luck value is 93.64%). In addition, there are 2,217 blocks left before the fourth BTC output halving, which is expected to be on April 21, 2024.

Although the computing power has increased significantly, as the difficulty increases, the average cost of BTC output this month is still $50,000, reaching a maximum of $65,000. After the halving, as production decreases, the average cost will most likely exceed $100,000, which will inevitably lead to continued rise in BTC price and market value.

ETH:

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

The supply trend of ETH has tended to be flat. It has not fluctuated significantly since June 2022 and has basically remained at around 122 million. This shows that the POS mechanism has indeed played a very positive role in stabilizing the ETH ecology. The market value and ecological value of ETH Already strongly related.

As the largest ecosystem in the current industry, ETH only needs to focus on the construction and expansion of its internal ecosystem to achieve convenient exploration and driving of the entire industry. In fact, this is exactly what we see.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

At the same time, the total number of ETH POS pledges continues to rise. As of March 31, there were 978,052 active validators, and 31,328,059 ETH were pledged across the network, accounting for 26.80% of the total supply of ETH. Among them, 2,306,499 were newly pledged in March, and the pledge share of the liquidity pledge agreement Lido accounted for 30.11% of the total.

As the number of ETH pledges increases, the incentives for validators will depend more on the activity of transactions on the chain. This, together with the POS mechanism, forms a complete closed loop of regulation within the ETH ecosystem. However, the absolute proportion of Lido makes How to become more decentralized has become an urgent issue that the ETH Foundation needs to solve, and it is recommended to focus on it.

3. Market trend

3.1 BTC market growth weakens

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

TradingView data: BTC’s lowest price in March was $59,005 and its highest price was $73,777, an overall increase of 16.6%. The gain was muted from February’s 43.57% gain, which may have been affected by lower net inflows into BTC spot ETFs in March.

From Coinglass data, we can see that the net inflow of BTC spot ETF in March was US$4.6368 billion, which was far lower than the net inflow in February (US$6.03 billion). However, the price of BTC still maintained a relatively stable upward trend throughout March. .

According to historical experience, there is a high probability that the BTC price will experience a retracement before and after the halving. However, we judge that when the basic market of Bitcoin spot ETF is stable and the macroeconomic environment and indicators are relatively stable, the superimposed halving will be beneficial. Even if Bitcoin experiences Retracement will still continue to maintain the upward momentum.

3.2 The Restaking wave begins to emerge

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

The Restaking track was also the focus of attention in March. As the ether.fi airdrop application opened, ETHFI was listed on CEX on March 18 with an opening price of $0.2. On that day, its price soared to a maximum of $5.3, an increase of more than 26 times; although there were subsequent fluctuations, the overall trend was upward, with the highest price being about $8.6, which was 43 times the opening price.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

The increase and market trend of ETHFI have given rise to higher expectations for other unissued Restaking projects, and the focus of attention has focused on Renzo. From the Defilama data, we can see that Renzo’s TVL has been growing steadily since March 1. From March 1 to March 20, its TVL increased by approximately $350 million; after that, its upward slope increased significantly. From the 20th to the 31st, TVL increased by approximately $1.08 billion, and the growth rate was more than three times that of the previous period.

Renzo’s TVL growth mainly comes from people’s high expectations after its currency issuance. After ether.fi, if Renzo’s performance is consistent with or similar to people’s expectations, the wave of Restaking will be unstoppable.

3.3 Meme coins continue to drive FOMO sentiment

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

The performance of the MEME sector in March was still outstanding. After the wealth creation effect of DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE in February, Meme tokens such as BOME, MEW, WIF, and BRETT took turns to stage skyrocketing dramas, allowing the FOMO sentiment in the market to continue to accumulate and freed.

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

In the CoingeckoTOP 10 gainer list, CAT has begun to lead a new wave of surge sentiment, while CHEEMS, OMNOM, DEGEN, etc. have begun a new relay. This market trend shows that on the one hand, the entire crypto market is still hot and market funds are active; on the other hand, it also shows that the market needs new stimulation, whether it is emotional or narrative.

Behind the Meme currency market, it is more about the promotion and empowerment of Solana and Base within the ecosystem. Through the Meme currency market and the introduction of the community, the Solana and Base ecology are extremely active, and it also provides people with an outlet to vent their emotions. . In addition, BSC is also making corresponding plans, which may further boost the rise of the Meme sector, but whether it will last and how long it can last is still a question mark. In particular, the huge volatility of Meme coins makes it a huge challenge for individual investors to grasp the right investment opportunity.

4. Investment and Financing Observation

4.1 Overview of investment and financing

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

The total amount completed in the encryption market in March 2024 was US$1.16 billion, a month-on-month increase of 52.6%. Data are as follows:

  • 180 financing events, a month-on-month increase of 34.32% (134 financing events in February);

  • 3 acquisitions, down 50% month-on-month, indicating a decrease in acquisition activity;

  • The average financing amount was US$10.0105 million, a month-on-month increase of 38.66%;

  • The median amount raised was $5 million, up 25% quarter-over-quarter.

Among them, seed round financing events accounted for the most, followed by strategic financing and Series A financing, while other types of financing events grew rapidly:

  • 47 seed rounds (+23% month-on-month);

  • 30 strategic financings (+100% month-on-month);

  • 19 rounds of A rounds (+46% month-on-month);

  • Other types 17 (+112% month-on-month);

Taken together, although acquisitions have declined, financing events, average financing amount and median financing have all increased significantly, especially the significant growth in strategic financing and other types of financing events, indicating that the markets bullish sentiment has increased, and investment and financing The influx of hot money is also continuing to increase, and the markets bullish sentiment and cyclical sentiment are still surging.

The 5 largest funding rounds in March:

  • Optimism raises $89 million at undisclosed valuation;

  • Zama raises $73 million in Series A funding at undisclosed valuation;

  • Berachain completed $69 million in Series B financing, valuing it at $1.5 billion;

  • Figure Markets raises $60 million in Series A funding at undisclosed valuation;

  • Eclipse raises $50 million in Series B funding at undisclosed valuation;

4.2 Brief analysis of investment and financing institutions

MIIX Capital投研月报(2024.03)

From the perspective of VC institutions: First, Animoca Brands’ investment and financing are mainly concentrated in the infrastructure and GameFi fields, followed by Polychain, Binance Labs and Coinbase Ventures. These three have larger investments in the infrastructure and DeFi fields, while other VC companies investment is focused on infrastructure.

This also reflects the distribution and pattern of industry construction and application at the current stage. Infrastructure is still the focus of current construction, while GameFi and DeFi are the business focus on the application side.

4.3 Judgment of investment and financing trends

Judging from the investment and financing market in March, investment and financing activities in the crypto field are growing significantly. Both the number of projects and the amount of investment have increased, and have reached a high point in the past year. Investment is still concentrated in infrastructure, DeFi , NFT/GameFi direction.

In April, the sectors that are currently receiving the most attention: AI+Crypto, GameFi, modularization, Solana and Base chain new applications, and Bitcoin Layer 2 may further stimulate the investment market boom as investment and financing become more active. , although it may be affected by various factors such as the global economy, technological innovation, and policy environment, the overall positive trend remains unchanged.

5 Conclusion

The data and market trends in March 2024 allow us to see several important trends:

  • Although the rise in U.S. stocks did not meet expectations, the macro outlook for the future is good and the market trend of the crypto market will not be negatively affected;

  • As the halving approaches, profit-taking and the departure of some miners have led to a volatile market. However, hedged by ETFs driven by traditional capital and halving expectations, the magnitude of the fluctuations is not large;

  • Stablecoins continue to be issued, with USDe rising by as much as 156%. It is expected that the role of algorithmic stablecoins will become more important;

  • The TVL of the Restaking ecology on the chain has increased significantly, and the currency price has skyrocketed after the launch of ETHFI, which has greatly enhanced peoples expectations for Restaking;

  • The substantial increase in the median investment and financing amount, as well as the investment and financing layout of major institutions, reflect the rising market hot money and market sentiment;

Despite the large fluctuations in the current market conditions, the market conditions dominated by traditional capital and ETFs are still the main narrative at present. In this cycle, the Meme currency market is significantly different from previous market cycles, especially the successive entry and drive of Solana, Base and Bsc after the Dencun upgrade in March, which made the market FOMO sentiment extremely enthusiastic and unique during the relative cooling off period. .

In addition, technological innovations and related investments such as Restaking, modularization, BTC ecology and AI have also continued to grow and stimulate the activity of market funds, especially the direction of combining traditional finance and RWA. Will it have any impact on the global financial ecology? Let’s wait and see for stronger penetration and influence.

Note: All the above opinions are for reference only and do not serve as investment advice. If you have any objections, please contact us for correction.

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