Original author: Alex Liu, Foresight News
The last time the legendary trader GCR was active on social media was on April 14 this year. On that day, the market fell sharply, and he posted a message to be bullish on the future trend. The market almost hit the bottom at the same time. This may be just a coincidence, but it also shows his strong personal influence.
Fast forward to the eve of the 2024 US presidential election, and GCR has finally posted again, but this time it has nothing to do with encryption: The result of the 2000 election was ultimately decided by a difference of 537 votes (48.847% to 48.838%). Although it is unlikely to be so close in 2024, I still encourage everyone to vote tomorrow (whether you vote Republican or Democratic).
Someone in the comments section left a message: No kidding, my entire fortune is long Trumps victory based on GCRs prediction. If I get blown up, I will private message and ask for a refund.
The election result has already become a tradable target. Which side does GCR bet on? What is the prediction of GCR mentioned by the above netizens?
It turns out that as early as 2021, the GCR @GiganticRebirth account posted a message saying:
“One of my most confident trades, TRUMP 2024
FTX has a severe lack of liquidity, so we have been accumulating positions through Alameda OTC and other sources since around 0.10/10 c (10 cents per share, 1 share will be worth $1 if it wins)
The biggest risk to this deal is a (Trump) heart attack, otherwise it is destined to rise to $0.65
On July 4, 2022, he wrote another article stating bluntly:
Looking back now, this series of operations was like cheating, foreseeing the future three years in advance.
Trump successfully won the Republican nomination, and DeSantis was eliminated. In the presidential election market, Trumps victory reached a high of 0.7, just above the predicted 0.65, achieving a 7-fold return. How did this happen?
Polymarkets highest probability of Trump winning is 71.5%
GCR responded to the comments mentioned above yesterday, reviewed the transaction, and stated that it had taken profit.
The full response is below:
“I’ve seen this sentiment before; as always, I advise against using leverage and reckless gambling.
As traders, our job is to think about the possibilities and find the biggest difference between expectations and accurate pricing.
In 2021, I am convinced of two predictions
(1) DeSantis (will not take down the Republican nominee) because the front runner is a paper tiger and Trump has a greater than 95% chance of becoming the real Republican nominee.
(2) The prediction market will be biased to the right (as I observed in the 2020 Trump odds); therefore, the expected pricing of the final Republican nominee (regardless of who wins) will rise to 65 cents (see my pinned tweet to start assuming 0.65 from 2021);
Therefore, buying Trump unlimited at less than 10% is value maximizing, knowing that if my bearish thesis on DeSantis is correct, the odds will rise to over 65% (as well as buying other proxy bets related to Trump being undervalued)
Both of these predictions came true (Trump won the Republican nomination and his victory share reached 65 cents), and I felt satisfied that I had captured the essence of this move and taken profits from my positions and proxy bets because most of the Delta between expectations and reality had already been realized;
Now we wait and see if there will be a fair election.
To what extent does GCR have an influence? Whale, who had withdrawn $500,000 from Binance 20 hours ago to continue betting on Trump’s victory , began selling his position one minute after GCR posted the post “profit has been taken” and “waiting to see if there will be a fair election”, and cleared all his positions of more than $3 million betting on Trump’s victory within one hour.
Is GCR suggesting that Trump will win if the election is fair? Will his bets remain accurate as always? We expect a positive answer, after all, he also said that ETH will rise to $10,000 sooner or later.
