Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )
Author｜Nan Zhi ( @Assassin_Malvo )
Last month, the Meme trading platform Moonshot became popular, and the community said that it solved the last mile problem of Meme tokens and had a strong listing effect. In Promoting Meme Vane, Does Moonshot Really Have a Listing Effect? , we backtested and verified that the listing effect of Moonshot is extremely short-lived, and is only effective around the 5-minute period, with no medium- and long-term benefit effect, which is inconsistent with the community propaganda.
However, last week, after CHILLGUY launched Moonshot, its market value rose from $16 million to $200 million in one day , and hit a market value of $500 million four days later .
In order to explore whether Moonshot has reversed the basic rule of short-term listing effect, we reviewed the rise and fall data of Moonshot tokens launched in the past week to verify the accuracy of the conclusion again.
The short-term listing effect is enhanced, but it is still ineffective in the long term
In the previous article, we concluded that Moonshot’s listing price saw a significant increase in 5 minutes, a slight differentiation in 1 hour, and differentiation after 4 hours, and most of them eventually returned to zero .
The 5-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, 24-hour and year-to-date growth rates of the 11 tokens launched in the past week are shown in the figure below.
It can be seen that the average 5-minute increase has increased from 14.7% a month ago to 30.6% , and this increase can be maintained in most cases in the 1-hour stage. This shows that Moonshot listing is likely to have become the world of quantitative announcement robots, and the 5-minute increase is almost entirely caused by Bot news arbitrage.
Over a longer period of time, the rise and fall began to diverge. Except for CHILLGUY, most of them continued to decline, and some tokens were close to zero.
Detailed data display
The five-minute rise and fall of Moonshot coin after listing is shown in the figure below. In this figure, we added the closing market value of the token 1 minute before listing for comparison . It can be clearly seen that the 5-minute increase in the token is significantly negatively correlated with the initial market value. The larger the market value, the less likely it is to rise. This may once again confirm that the increase in this stage was brought about by the news arbitrage bot.
The 1-hour increase in tokens is shown in the figure below. Most of them maintained their original increase. The author speculates that this may be caused by the exchange between Bot and real users.
The 4-hour and 24-hour rise and fall are shown in the figure below (except for CHILLGUY which has risen too much, it is no longer shown). The rise and fall of each token began to diverge, but most of them broke the issue price and continued to decline. In the 24-hour stage, 6 out of 10 tokens fell. Excluding CHILLGUY, the average 4-hour increase was 5%, and the 24-hour increase was -2% .
The token price increase from before the announcement to now is shown in the figure below. Excluding CHILLGUY, the average decline is 41.5%.
In summary, it can be clearly seen that CHILLGUY is just a special case of Moonshot listing . Moonshot’s “short-term listing effect” is enhanced, but only arbitrage bots can make profits, and the “medium- and long-term wealth creation effect” still does not exist.
