The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
As a psychological barrier, the barrier effect of $100,000 depends on the strength of the will of the holder group. This weeks trend shows that once the general trend of funds and emotions is formed, it is only a matter of time before the psychological barrier is broken.
After rising for four consecutive weeks, BTC fell and then rose this week. It opened at $101,400, then fell to close at $104,447.76. After clearing the floating chips that were eager to cash in profits and falling back to the 5-week moving average, it slowly rose and finally rose above $104,000 on Sunday.
This week, the United States released CPI and PPI data, which were in line with expectations and slightly negative, but the fully adjusted crypto market seems to have entered a zero risk slow upward phase with the support of continuous capital inflows.
Macro-financial and economic data
This week, the U.S. announced that its seasonally adjusted CPI for the end of November was 2.7% year-on-year, rising for the second consecutive month, and 0.3% month-on-month, the largest increase since April.
After the CPI data, swap traders increased their bets on the Fed cutting interest rates by the end of 2025. They expect a cumulative rate cut of 87 basis points by then. This means that in addition to the Feds 25 basis point cut next week, there will be about two more rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2025. This rate cut is one less than the four proposed in the latest quarterly dot plot in September.
US stocks were mixed. The Nasdaq rose 0.34, while the Dow Jones and SP 500 fell 1.82% and 0.64% respectively. London gold rose slightly by 0.16%.
This week, the ECB cut interest rates by another 25 basis points, from 3.25% to 3%, and hinted that rate cuts will continue.
In China, the Central Economic Conference of the Communist Party of China stated that we should implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize the property and stock markets. The subsequent Central Financial and Economic Work Conference stated that we should implement more proactive fiscal policies and increase the fiscal deficit ratio. We should implement moderately loose monetary policy and reduce the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates at the right time. This is the first time that the Chinese government has mentioned moderately loose monetary policy after 14 years.
Based on the outlook of various countries, the United States will face policy shocks in 2025, and may face a rebound in inflation and a slowdown in interest rate cuts; in Europe and China, economic growth may continue to decline, so loose monetary policies must be adopted to stimulate weak economic growth.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
Although the Christmas holiday is approaching and market transactions are becoming increasingly light, the crypto market still maintains a relatively abundant inflow of funds. This week, BTC Spot ETF inflows $2.174 billion, stablecoin channels inflows $3.768 billion, and a total inflow of $5.941 billion, which is a decrease from last week, but still remains at a high level.
Selling off
This week, a total of 268,581 BTC were transferred to exchanges by long and short hands, including 256,826 BTC in short hands and 11,755 BTC in long hands. This was the second largest selling week since November.
The surge in buying power, especially the funds in the BTC Spot ETF channel, absorbed the selling pressure. The weekly inventory of centralized exchanges decreased by 27,901 coins.
According to EMC Labs eMerge Engine, short-term floating profits have dropped from a previous high of 33% to 25%, a bull market neutral level.
In particular, the long-term selling, which is decisive for the cyclical stage, has been declining continuously. The BTC price is expected to be above $100,000, climbing slowly upward amid fluctuations.
Cycle Indicators
The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.875, and the market is in an upward phase and is showing a vigorous upward trend.
END
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