A Web3 entrepreneur’s year-end summary and new year outlook: from grassroots to universal, from chaos to order, from depression to bubble, from conservatism to reform

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In general, looking back at 2024 and looking forward to 2025, I think it is appropriate to summarize it in four sentences: from grassroots to universal, from chaos to order, from depression to bubble, and from conservatism to reform. Next, I will share my thoughts and prospects with some events that I think are more representative.

Original article by @Web3_Mario

Thank you very much for your support this year. Im sorry that my year-end summary came a little late. I was delayed in dealing with things. Of course, I also thought for a long time from which angles I should sort out my feelings for this year. In the end, I think it would be more realistic to share my thoughts and feelings with you from the perspective of an ordinary Web3 entrepreneur who is still struggling on the front line. In general, looking at 2024 and looking forward to 2025, I think it is quite appropriate to summarize it in four sentences: from grassroots to universal, from chaos to order, from depression to bubble, from conservatism to reform. Next, I will use some events that I think are more representative to share my thoughts and prospects.

From grassroots to universal: The approval of BTC spot ETF marks the beginning of the universalization of crypto assets

Looking back at 2024, I think the most unusual transformation that the crypto world has experienced is the upgrade from a product of a niche subculture group in the past to an asset class with universal value. This process can be traced back to two landmark events. The first is the approval of the BTC spot ETF on January 10, 2024, which was approved by the SEC after three months of negotiation. The second is that on November 6, 2024, during this round of US election cycle, the cryptocurrency-friendly Trump was successfully elected as the 47th President of the United States. The corresponding impact of the two can be seen from the two more obvious price trends of BTC this year. The former pulled the price of BTC from the $30,000 price range to $60,000, while the latter contributed greatly to the increase of BTC from $60,000 to $100,000.

A Web3 entrepreneur’s year-end summary and new year outlook: from grassroots to universal, from chaos to order, from depression to bubble, from conservatism to reform The most direct impact of this shift is on liquidity. More abundant liquidity is naturally conducive to the price trend of risky assets, but the process and motivation of liquidity attraction are different from the bull market in 2021. Looking back at the bull market of crypto assets in 2021, the core source of its main driving force was the higher capital efficiency brought about by the deregulated nature of crypto assets, which made the crypto track more efficient in capturing excess liquidity brought about by the $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan promoted by the Biden administration in response to the new crown epidemic, thereby achieving super high speculative returns.

However, in this round of bull market that started in 2024, it can be seen that the entire transmission process has changed. Relying on the influential funds attracted by the bull market in 2021 and the new vested interests, a new interest group has been formed, which is actively releasing greater political influence, not limited to many crypto policy lobbying groups and massive political donations. Regarding this point, the author has made a more in-depth analysis in his previous article In-depth Analysis of the Value of World Liberty Financial: A New Choice Under Trumps Campaign Funding Disadvantage .

The most direct impact of this is that it has become possible to effectively promote the universal value of cryptocurrencies through political means. Therefore, in this cycle, you will see that the value discourse of crypto assets is being iterated, and more traditional elites and mainstream media have labeled themselves as crypto-friendly. This change from grassroots to universal has also profoundly affected the motivation for attracting liquidity. Regardless of whether the viewpoint has sufficient arguments (it has been discussed in previous articles, In-depth Analysis of the Underlying Reasons for the Current Crypto Market Fluctuation: BTCs Value Growth Anxiety After Breaking New Highs ), in addition to speculation, the purchasing power of BTC in this round is indeed mixed with more words such as value storage and anti-inflation, which will reduce the cyclicality and volatility brought by the speculative attributes of crypto assets, and make the value support more stable. Of course, the crypto assets that can obtain this positive change are currently only a few blue-chip assets including BTC, but with the transmission effect brought by the multiplier effect, the entire crypto asset market will benefit more or less. It may be more intuitive to use a picture to illustrate this change.

A Web3 entrepreneur’s year-end summary and new year outlook: from grassroots to universal, from chaos to order, from depression to bubble, from conservatism to reform

In addition to the impact on the top class, this evolution has also brought about a huge positive change in mentality for many practitioners, including the author. The most intuitive example is that when friends and relatives outside the circle ask you about your industry, you don’t have to explain timidly that you are not a criminal or a nouveau riche as in the past, but now you can proudly introduce your profession or career. This change in mentality will also make the influx of talents more positive, whether it is starting a business to find partners, recruiting talents, seeking cooperation with traditional industries, etc. The friction costs in the process will be greatly reduced. So in view of this point, the author is full of confidence in the future development of the industry.

Finally, we should also mention some prospects for this narrative path. In 2025, the discussion on the value of crypto assets represented by BTC will be more active. In previous articles, there have been analyses, specifically pointing out that BTCs value of storage and taking over AI will become the core of US stock growth. Therefore, we need to be sensitive to relevant information, which may include the following aspects:

l Progress on legislation related to Bitcoin reserves at the national, regional, organizational, and corporate levels;

l Relevant speeches or opinions expressed by key figures with political influence;

l The allocation of BTC in the balance sheets of US listed companies;

From Chaos to Order: The regulatory framework of the crypto industry in sovereign countries around the world will be further improved, and Web3 business scenarios will have a basis for breaking through the circle

The authors second observation path is from chaos to order. We know that for a long time, a core narrative of the cryptocurrency industry has been the anti-censorship ability brought by decentralization and anonymity. You can find similar arguments in most Web3 applications in the last cycle. This naturally made an important contribution to the Web3 industry in finding value support in the early stage, but it also brought considerable harm to the industry, such as fraud, money laundering and other crimes.

However, I believe that the industry will iterate in this direction. This does not mean that Web3 fundamentalism will be completely abandoned. I just think that from a pragmatic point of view, the current crypto industry will undergo a transformation from chaos to order, and this transformation is accompanied by the further improvement of the regulatory framework of the crypto industry in sovereign countries around the world. We know that among the many hot spots of crypto game in 2024, the change of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has attracted much attention. For a long time in the past, under the leadership of this crypto-unfriendly chairman, the SEC has sued a large number of US crypto companies, such as Ripple, Consensys, etc., which has caused bottlenecks in the business development and expansion of these giants. In the previous article Buy the rumor series: Expectations for improvement in the regulatory environment are rising, which cryptocurrency will benefit most directly? , Lido was used as an example to clearly analyze the progress in this direction.

However, with Trump taking office, his policy preference for deregulation, and the change of Gary Gensler, a more relaxed, inclusive, and crypto-friendly regulatory framework is worth looking forward to. Judging from the progress of recent judgments in related cases, such as Ripple, Tornado Cash, etc., the introduction of this framework will not be far away.

The most direct benefit of this change is that it makes it possible for Web3 business scenarios to break out of the circle without having to bear many potential legal risks. In the coming 2025, the author will pay special attention to the progress of such events, and everyone needs to be sensitive to similar information, including the verdicts of other lawsuits, the proposal and advancement of relevant bills, changes in SEC personnel appointments, and the speeches and opinions of key decision makers. In terms of potential breakout businesses, the author is very interested in two aspects:

Ce-DeFi scenario: connect traditional financial instruments with on-chain tools such as crypto assets to solve capital efficiency and reduce transaction friction costs. From the perspective of capital flow, it can be divided into two categories. The first is from the traditional financial world to on-chain crypto assets, such as MicroStrategys financial innovation. The second is from on-chain crypto assets to the traditional financial world, specifically referring to bond-based RWA, on-chain financing channels similar to Usual Money, and TradeFi fields such as stablecoins.

l The scenario of DAO in off-chain entity business management: This direction is a bit of a guess. Due to the relaxation of regulatory measures related to cryptocurrencies by Trumps policy, and the boost to domestic demand with America First, will more off-chain organizations or companies that prefer traditional businesses choose to use the DAO model for internal governance in exchange for cheaper financial services? Here is an example. If someone wants to open a Chinese restaurant, they can choose to operate it through DAO and access a payment system based on stablecoins. At that time, all cash flows will be open and transparent. At the same time, if regulatory policies are further relaxed, the companys financing and dividends can also be carried out through DAO.

From depression to bubble: Traditional Web3 business development focuses on three main axes: a more novel grand narrative, more stable business revenue, and a more balanced interest game model

The authors third observation path is from depression to bubble. We know that in 2024, the traditional Web3 business hotspots have undergone a relatively large transformation. From the LRT market driven by EigenLayer in the first half of the year, it mainly presents the characteristics of the industry depression period. Due to the lack of a general money-making effect, in the context of stock game, capital groups are warm, and choose to gather in the few Infra-type sectors with huge potential market size but longer actual business landing, exchanging time for space, and avoiding chip dilution by raising valuations and matching points strategy, thereby exploiting users. This has been analyzed in the authors previous Web3 oligarchs are exploiting users: from Tokenomics to Pointomics .

However, with the improvement of the market environment in the middle of the year and the unsatisfactory performance of the LRT sector token price, the focus gradually shifted to the application layer represented by TON Mini App. Compared with infra, the application layer has more target options, lower development costs, shorter landing cycles, and easier to control iteration benefits, which are highly praised by capital. At this time, the market quickly emerged from the depression.

In the second half of the year, as the Federal Reserve entered a rate cut cycle and as VC coins faced the Fud problem, the traditional capital exit path was broken, the market quickly entered a bubble, and capital chased Meme coins with shorter exit cycles in pursuit of higher capital turnover. In addition to Meme coins themselves, launch platforms represented by Pumpfun and newer tools with superimposed narratives such as AI Agent are also being pursued by the market.

Looking ahead to the next year, I believe that traditional Web3 businesses will develop in a bubble cycle:

l A more innovative grand narrative: We know that capital likes to chase high-growth tracks. The core reason is the huge imagination potential and tolerance for current delivery, which makes the valuation bubble bigger. It is easier to attract market traders and new capital to enter, making it easier for investors to exit through the secondary market at the right time. Therefore, whether or not the long-term value of a track is recognized, as long as it is logical, it can become a target for capital speculation during the bull market bubble period. Therefore, from the perspective of chasing capital gains, we should remain sensitive.

l More stable business revenue: For some tracks that have gone through a round of iteration, the valuation model will return to a reasonable range. At that time, the pursuit of real income will become the main theme of industry iteration, which puts higher requirements on the extraction of demand with commercial potential. However, if a certain scenario can be truly explored, the market potential will be endless. Here, I specifically refer to the DeFi track, or the Ce-DeFi track. I am personally quite interested in the interest rate trading market. Friends with similar ideas are welcome to discuss with me.

l A more balanced interest game model: We know that the current traditional VC coins are suffering from Fud. The main problem is that the current traditional financing model makes the game relationship between project parties, primary market VCs and secondary market investors appear in the optimal strategy of individuals in the prisoners dilemma. Each prisoner believes that the other party may betray, so he chooses to betray (to ensure his release or reduce his sentence). Therefore, in the new environment, whether a better model can be found is also worth paying attention to. For example, I think HyperLiquid is very likely to have discovered some of the secrets, which is also a focus of my next research.

From Conservatism to Reform: A Rare Escape Opportunity for Risky Assets Brings Great Uncertainty

The authors fourth observation path is from conservatism to reform. It needs to be explained that conservatism and reform here are just neutral words. Conservatism means compliance with existing rules, while reform means breaking. The main theme of 2025 must be major changes in the economic and cultural fields caused by political changes. The whole process is full of uncertainties brought about by the collapse of the old order. For example, the uncertainty of the debt crisis of the Chinese and US governments, the uncertainty of monetary policies of various countries, the uncertainty of changes in mainstream social values, and the uncertainty of international relations.

These uncertainties bring about huge volatility in the risk market. Of course, if the sector rotation puts the industry in a positive state, this volatility brings good things, and vice versa. A piece of news two days ago also made the author interested in this direction, that is, the FTX restructuring plan will take effect on January 3 and will allow users to start receiving repayments.

We know that in the last cycle, the mainstream political spectrum in the technology industry was still relatively Democratic, so it is believed that many big players who entered the last bull market will not have a good time after Trumps return. Therefore, it is understandable that they took advantage of the window period before he officially took office to drive up relevant prices as much as possible and hedge their own risky assets. Here is a little conspiracy theory. Some Deep State capital suffered huge losses due to the bankruptcy of FTX and the collapse of the crypto industry. Therefore, after Trump won the election, he did not hesitate to use many political means to raise the price of crypto assets to an exaggerated level. This allowed some already dilapidated balance sheets to come back to life and avoid their own losses.

I also got some inspiration from the FTX case, so I am also very interested in the development of the NFT track in 2025. It seems that the two have some similarities. At the same time, combined with new speculative narratives such as AI Agent, it is not impossible for the NFT market to have a second spring.

Original article, author:马里奥看Web3。Reprint/Content Collaboration/For Reporting, Please Contact report@odaily.email;Illegal reprinting must be punished by law.

ODAILY reminds readers to establish correct monetary and investment concepts, rationally view blockchain, and effectively improve risk awareness; We can actively report and report any illegal or criminal clues discovered to relevant departments.

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