In the past week, the BTC price showed an overall volatile trend, reaching a high of $88,765 and a low of $81,278, with a maximum intra-week fluctuation of 8% (the above data is from Binance spot, real-time data at 15:00 on April 1). Affected by macroeconomic policies, the price of BTC fluctuated greatly last week. The reciprocal tariff strategy to be announced this week will further affect the trend of crypto assets and global stock indices. The non-agricultural report and CPI data will also be announced in the near future, which may further affect market sentiment and attitudes towards risky assets.
Market Overview
Affected by Trumps new tariff policy, global stock markets fell significantly
The Trump team will launch new reciprocal tariff measures on April 2 (Eastern Time). The market is generally worried that this round of tariffs may intensify trade frictions, inflation risks and drag down economic growth, which will have a negative impact on the stock market and cryptocurrencies.
As the last trading day of Q1, the global stock market reacted significantly on the evening of March 31. The three major US stock indexes opened lower, and the Nasdaq index fell by more than 2% at one point. At the end of the day, the Dow Jones index turned positive, and the Nasdaq index and the SP 500 index narrowed their losses. Technology stocks generally fell sharply, with Tesla and Nvidia falling by about 4%. European stock markets generally fell by more than 1%.
The market movement on the 31st also marked a sharp turn of events from the brief optimism in mid-March. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index jumped to 24 at one point, exceeding the 20 mark that usually causes market alarm. At the same time, investors flocked to safe-haven assets, with U.S. Treasuries and gold being sought after, with gold prices hitting a record high of more than $3,100 per ounce.
BTC spot ETF has experienced net outflows for two consecutive months, and retail investors are not interested
BTC ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive months. Although year-to-date inflows remain positive ($1.05 billion), ETFs have shown significant weakness recently, especially against safe-haven assets such as gold.
Fund flows show that BTC ETFs are still highly dependent on favorable financing rates and arbitrage opportunities rather than broad investor interest. Given that retail speculative sentiment in the crypto market remains low, without a strong catalyst, it is difficult for BTC ETF fund inflows to rebound substantially in the short term.
Nasdaq 100 posts worst quarter in nearly three years
Jinshi reported that concerns about the AI bubble have dealt a blow to the Nasdaq 100 Index, which fell 8.3% in the first quarter, the worst quarterly performance in nearly three years. Nvidia (NVDA.O), Broadcom (AVGO.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), etc., have all fallen at least 20% from their respective historical highs. Coincidentally, the SP 500 Index is also heading for its worst quarter compared to other global markets since the 1980s.
Data shows that the Nasdaq 100 index peaked in February, more than doubling from its low in December 2022. Although the average valuation of the index has dropped to 24 times from 27 times previously, its price is still high relative to the average level of the past 20 years (about 20 times).
Macro Outlook
Trumps remarks heightened market concerns and risk aversion
The SP 500 has fallen more than 5% this year. This is the largest quarterly performance gap between the two since 1988, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At the same time, it is worth noting that energy, health care, utilities and daily consumer goods companies have performed well in the market against the backdrop of falling stock markets. These companies usually pay high dividends and are favored by income investors when bond yields fall. They have become the strongest performing sectors in the SP 500 this quarter.
Before the tariff policy was officially implemented, Wall Street analysts issued warnings about the U.S. stock market. David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, has lowered his year-end target for the SP 500 for the second time this month. He expects the index to close at 5,700 points at the end of the year, lower than the previous estimate of 6,200 points. The CEO of Advisors Asset Management said: Traders are nervous and worried that the economic slowdown will be much faster than expected, so they are avoiding risks and turning to safe assets.
Reciprocal tariff policy may dominate global economic sentiment
Trump plans to announce new “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2. Based on Trump’s previous remarks, the reciprocal tariffs will target “all countries” rather than just the 10 to 15 countries that have significant trade deficits with the United States.
As the scale of this round of tariffs may be large, the market has previously experienced a panic sell-off. If the tariff policy is relatively mild this time, the possibility of a sharp rebound cannot be ruled out.
The non-farm report and CPI data will be released soon, which is closely related to the extent of the interest rate cut.
On April 4, the US non-farm payrolls report will be released; on April 10, the March CPI data will be released. Both data strongly affect the markets expectations of the Feds interest rate path. Although the February inflation data was relatively mild, if the March inflation data rebounds, it may weaken the markets expectations for a recent rate cut. The tightening of market liquidity will increase the volatility of crypto asset prices.
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