Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )
Author: Wenser ( @wenser 2010 )
As the Trump administration officially launched the tariff trade war, both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market suffered a devastating blow.
In the past week, the market value of U.S. stocks has evaporated by more than $6 trillion, including more than $1.5 trillion of the Big Seven including Apple, Google and other companies. The crypto market also performed poorly. After nearly a month of volatile market conditions, the plunge was late but it came - BTC fell below the $80,000 mark again today, as low as $77,000; ETH fell to as low as $1,540, a new low since October 2023; the total market value of crypto fell to $2.6 trillion, a drop of more than 9% in the past 24 hours.
Odaily Planet Daily will sort out the market conditions and main viewpoints in this article for readers reference.
Macroeconomic incentives: The Trump administration launched a tariff trade war, and BTCs safe-haven properties did not work in the short term
In the early morning of April 3rd, Beijing time, after several days of warm-up, the Trump administration finally officially launched the global tariff trade war and announced reciprocal tariff measures, stating that it would impose a 10% base tariff on all countries (effective on April 5th), and would impose additional higher reciprocal tariffs of varying degrees on countries with larger trade deficits with the United States. The reciprocal tariff rate is basically levied according to the extent of the United States trade deficit with that country (effective on April 9th).
Among them, the new measures increase tariffs on Chinese goods by 34%. Together with the existing 20% tariff, the US tariff level on China will reach at least 54%. China has also taken strong countermeasures. On April 4, the Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement stating that starting from April 10, 2025, all imported goods originating from the United States will be subject to a 34% tariff on the basis of the current applicable tariff rate.
EU countries are also seeking to form a united front to fight back against Trumps tariff policy :
The European Union may approve a first set of targeted countermeasures against up to $28 billion worth of U.S. imports, including dental floss and diamonds;
The European Commission will propose to member states later on Monday a list of U.S. products to be hit by additional tariffs in response to Trumps steel and aluminum tariffs, rather than broader reciprocal tariffs.
Luxembourg will host the first EU-wide political meeting early Monday since Trump announced sweeping tariffs, when ministers responsible for trade from the 27 EU member states will exchange views on the impact of the tariffs and how best to respond;
EU diplomats said the main purpose of the meeting was to send a consistent message that it wanted to negotiate with the United States on removing tariffs but was ready to take countermeasures if talks failed.
Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council , previously said that more than 50 countries have contacted the White House to begin trade negotiations.
The White House: Emphasizes that there is no room for negotiation on tariffs, which will officially take effect on April 9
On April 4, White House officials circulated internal talking points and told agents that Trumps new global tariff plan should not be seen as a starting point for negotiations, three people familiar with the matter said. As the world tries to understand Trumps massive new import taxes, internal government directives say advisers should describe the tariffs as a response to a national emergency rather than the basis for potential new trade negotiations, the people said. In addition to the talking points, Trump himself told advisers that the tariffs are not intended to set up negotiations, two people familiar with the matter said. U.S. Commerce Secretary Mattis Lutnick said yesterday that there will be no delay in the tariffs. The tariffs will continue in the coming days and weeks, and will take effect on April 9.
Anthony Pompliano, founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management, said Trump is deliberately causing the capital markets to collapse in order to force him to cut interest rates and reduce the cost of servicing U.S. Treasury bonds. Although the current U.S. governments policies will bring short-term pain, the effect of low interest rates will encourage borrowing and push up risky asset prices in the long run.
Combined with the news that Trump had previously publicly called on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut interest rates and stop playing politics, reminding him that now is the best time to cut interest rates, and accusing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell of always acting too late, this view is indeed quite likely.
Trumps policies triggered a decline in US stocks, and Black Monday may happen again
As the U.S. stock market has fallen sharply due to trade tariffs and recession concerns, Bitcoin has fallen more than 3% this week and the $80,000 mark has now been lost. The SP 500 and Nasdaq closed down nearly 6% on April 4, and some people warned that the market might repeat the Black Monday crash in 1987. CNBC host Jim Cramer said that the 1987 crash scenario has not been ruled out and that the current attempt to build a weaker new order is quite difficult.
Peter Navarro, a senior trade adviser to the Trump administration, called on U.S. investors to remain calm and not panic in an interview with Fox News on April 6, predicting that the stock market will eventually usher in a full recovery. He said: The most important rule, especially for retail investors, is that you dont lose money unless you sell your stocks. The wise strategy now is not to panic and hold on.
ETH and SOL hit a one-year low. Should we buy at the bottom or liquidate?
OKX market data shows that SOL fell by 13% in 24 hours, once falling to $103.4, a new low in nearly a year; ETH fell by 13% in 24 hours, once falling to $1,540, a 19-month low since October 2023. In addition, the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell below 0.02, hitting a new low since the beginning of 2020, with a minimum of 0.0198 and now at 0.02015, a 24-hour drop of 7.02%. It is worth mentioning that the indicator has fallen to the same level as 312 in 2020 (intraday range: 0.02099-0.02458).
On-chain data shows that since February, the number of Ethereum whales (holdings > 10,000 ETH) has dropped by about 10%, from 999 to 896 addresses.
E Guard said he was hurt
There are different opinions on the future market trend.
Optimistic bargain hunters
Last Friday, when BTC prices remained around $83,000, David Hernandez, a crypto investment expert at digital asset management company 21 Shares, said that Bitcoin showed impressive resilience, rebounding quickly after a brief drop below $82,000, consolidating its position as a hedge tool during periods of macroeconomic stress. If this decoupling continues, it may indicate that BTC will become increasingly popular with institutional investors seeking to avoid turbulent stock markets.
According to on-chain analyst Ember , the Web3 development team 7 Siblings purchased 25,102 ETH in the past 10 hours, spending $42.66 million (about $1,700 per ETH). Currently, they hold more than 660,000 ETH, with a total value of $1.037 billion. In addition, 7 Siblings borrowed $412 million in multiple lending agreements by pledging ETH. The lending position is healthy, and the liquidation price is below $1,100.
Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, said the growing money supply could push the price of Bitcoin to over $132,000 by the end of 2025.
Pessimistic short sellers
Greek.live macro researcher Adam published an English community briefing, which pointed out that the community is generally bearish, and most traders expect prices to fall in the coming weeks, mainly affected by macro concerns centered on Trumps tariffs. Bitcoins key price monitoring levels include $80,000 as an immediate support level, and the bearish target extends to $40,000. Only a few isolated bullish voices believe that it is possible to reach $100,000 in a few months.
Traders believe the tariffs have destroyed market trust and that even if they are reduced before the April 9 deadline, the damage to trade relations has already been done.
Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, said that the Bitcoin bull cycle may have ended. He explained that when small capital drives prices up, it is a bull market; when large capital also fails to drive prices up, it is a bear market. The current data clearly points to the latter. Capital is entering the market, but prices are not responding, which is a typical feature of a bear market. Selling pressure may ease at any time, but historically, a true reversal takes at least six months - so a short-term rebound seems unlikely.
Andrew Kang, partner at Mechanism Capital, wrote that he had not been paying close attention to cryptocurrencies in the past few months, but it seemed very likely that ETH would return to $1,000-1,500 this year. With the speculative craze clearly over, a market value of $215 billion for an asset with negative growth/profitability is ridiculous, and the bear market argument holds.
Turning point: Quantitative easing VS Trumps reversal of the wrong path
As for a possible turnaround in the market, we can only hope for quantitative easing policies at the macro level and whether Trump cares about the mid-term election campaign and adjusts corresponding policies.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes previously wrote : Trumps tariff plan further proves his commitment to reversing these imbalances. For U.S. Treasuries, the problem is that foreign investors cannot buy bonds without dollar exports. The Federal Reserve and the banking system must speed up to ensure the normal operation of the Treasury market, which means restarting loose monetary policy (Brrrr).
Not only that, he has previously stated that BTC holders need to learn to love tariffs, and perhaps we will finally break the connection with Nasdaq and be able to become the purest fiat liquidity smoke alarm.
Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Invest, warned that Trumps new tariffs could push the U.S. economy into recession. The market is in quite a bit of turmoil, Wood said of the uncertainty created by the measures.
She warned that the policies could push the U.S. into a recession. “We know how he calculated the reciprocal tariffs, but it doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense,” she said. “We are in the eye of the storm. But if Trump cares about his legacy — and we know he does — or about the midterm election campaign season that starts this fall, the final stretch of this rolling recession will give him and the Fed more freedom to adjust policy.”
