Last week (April 29 - May 5), the overall BTC price fluctuated widely after consolidating at a high level. On April 30, the BTC price hit a low of $92,910 and then rebounded, consolidating at a high level between $96,000 and $97,000, reaching a high of $97,895.68. On May 2, BTC began to fall after trying $98,000 several times without success. The current price is stable around $94,372 and fluctuates widely, with the maximum fluctuation of 5.36% during the week.
ETH showed an M-shaped fluctuation this week. On April 30, ETH climbed from a low of $1,731.70 to around $1,800, and then failed to test the $1,900 support level twice, rising to $1,873.17 at its highest, with a maximum intra-week fluctuation of 8.16%. Currently, the price of ETH has fallen back to around $1,700-$1,800 for consolidation, and the current price is $1,801.72 (data source: Binance spot, May 6, 17:00).
Market Hotspots
The foreign exchange market is volatile, which may become a new indicator of macroeconomic policy
In the past week, Asia-Pacific currencies generally strengthened, with the Korean won and RMB both rising, and the Taiwan dollar rising by more than 8% in a week, with the spread between the spot and one-year forward contracts of the Taiwan dollar hitting a 20-year high. The rise in the Taiwan dollar may be affected by the following factors: the speculation of a US-Taiwan trade agreement, the increase in US dollar asset hedging by Taiwan insurance institutions, and the exchange of US dollars for large-scale trade.
Since the Japanese yen experienced large fluctuations last year due to changes in interest rate differentials, it is not ruled out that this fluctuation in the Taiwan dollar exchange rate is an early signal of adjustments in global capital flows, and the foreign exchange market may become a barometer of macro changes.
Central banks slow gold purchases, gold token minting hits three-year high
As central bank gold purchases slow, the gold market is undergoing a structural shift. Data shows that gold-backed token minting exceeded $80 million in April, a three-year high, the industrys market value increased to $1.43 billion, and monthly transfer volume soared 77% to $1.27 billion.
In the first quarter, global total gold demand reached 1,206 tons, a slight increase year-on-year, but the central banks net purchases fell to 244 tons, a significant decline from the previous quarter. At the same time, demand for gold ETFs doubled to 552 tons, becoming the main source of funds driving gold prices.
Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the market rebound boosted risk appetite
The latest non-farm data showed that the US added 177,000 jobs in April, higher than the market expectation of 138,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Despite the slowdown in growth, the job market still showed a certain resilience, and the markets fear of economic recession has eased.
After the data was released, U.S. bond yields rebounded, the dollar rebounded, and the three major stock index futures rose across the board, with the Dow futures rising by more than 1%. However, affected by Trumps information on pharmaceutical tariffs, the three major indexes closed down on the 5th, and the Dow and SP ended their 9-game winning streak.
Although the non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the Fed expects a 97.3% chance of keeping interest rates unchanged in May, and the market remains cautious about the medium- and long-term economic outlook. The Fed has no clear intention to change direction, and the policy path still depends on the performance of subsequent data and the uncertain impact of tariff policies.
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U.S. consumer confidence hits new low since the outbreak, with tariffs and inflation expectations becoming the main drag
The latest data shows that the US consumer confidence index fell sharply in April, with the Conference Board index falling to 86.0, the lowest since May 2020; the University of Michigans initial value was only 50.8, close to the second lowest level in history. The market generally believes that the Trump administrations recent tariff policy and its expected impact on future prices are the main factors causing this round of confidence collapse.
High inflation expectations and short-term inventory surges have led to a structural risk of falsely high GDP in the first quarter, and the market has become conservative about the full-year growth outlook. Panic imports by companies are difficult to sustain, and the weakening of core consumption momentum has become a more vigilant signal.
The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma of high inflation + low growth. Stock and bond volatility intensified, gold benefited from risk aversion, and the crypto market showed differentiation in the game between economic and liquidity expectations.
Tariffs may drag down Mag 7s performance, AI becomes a watershed for technology stocks
Under the heavy pressure of Trumps tariff policy and the expectation of weak consumption, the earnings season of technology giants is clearly divided. Microsoft, with the continued strength of its Azure cloud business and the advancement of its AI strategy, delivered better-than-expected results. Its stock price rose by more than 11% in the week after the earnings report, and its market value returned to the top of the world, becoming the only company among the Mag 7 with a positive stock price growth this year.
In contrast, Apple and Amazon were under pressure from rising hardware costs and cooling consumption, with their combined market value evaporating by nearly $180 billion. Apple disclosed that tariffs would bring additional costs of about $900 million per quarter, and Amazon lowered its profit expectations.
According to Bloomberg data, Mag 7 companies are expected to see a 21.6% profit growth and a 9.7% revenue growth in 2025, both of which are up from the previous week. AI-related capital expenditures continue to be strong, driving a rebound in chip and hardware stocks such as Nvidia and Broadcom. Although Apple and Teslas financial reports are under pressure, overall, technology companies have shown strong resilience and growth resilience.
The U.S. House of Representatives released a draft of crypto regulation to clarify the classification and regulatory boundaries of digital assets
On May 5, two key committees of the U.S. House of Representatives jointly released a draft for discussion on crypto asset regulation, proposing to establish a unified federal regulatory framework, clarify the division of responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC, and make legal definitions of key concepts such as digital assets, blockchain systems and stablecoins. On May 6, the House of Representatives will launch a public hearing to listen to industry and public opinions.
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