Last week (June 11-June 16), the market fluctuated violently due to geopolitical tensions. BTC rebounded quickly after falling, showing resilience. From June 12 to 13, due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and the uncertainty of Trumps tariff policy, the market risk aversion increased, and BTC fell to $102,664.31, with the largest drop of 7% during the week. But then BTC rebounded quickly and returned to the range of $104,000-105,000. On the 16th, driven by positive market news and the continuous inflow of BTC spot ETFs, BTC reached a high of $107,715 and is currently stable at around $106,615. The overall trend of ETH keeps pace with BTC, with a maximum volatility of 15.35% during the week and a current price of about $2,576 (Binance, June 17, 15:20).
Last week, the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, and all three major U.S. stock indexes fell by more than 1%. The situation eased on Monday, and U.S. stocks rebounded, with the Nasdaq closing up 1.52% and the SP 500 returning to above 6,000 points.
Market Interpretation
US CPI fell in May, and expectations of interest rate cuts increased
The US CPI in May was lower than market expectations, and the core inflation index has slowed for four consecutive months. The CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, and the core CPI monthly rate was only 0.1%, both lower than expected, indicating that the stickiness of inflation has weakened. After the data was released, the SP 500 index futures turned up, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to 4.1%. The market raised the probability of the Feds September rate cut to 85%. Although the core CPI is still higher than the 2% target on an annualized basis, the impact of falling food prices and tariffs has not yet appeared in the short term, leaving room for the Feds easing policy. Subsequent decisions may rely more on core PCE data. Trump publicly called for a rate cut, and market expectations of easing were further strengthened. Overall, macroeconomic signals are optimistic, and risk appetite has rebounded in the short term.
The situation in the Middle East escalates, global risk aversion rises, and the crypto market is under short-term pressure
In mid-June, the intelligence war between Israel and Iran escalated and a large-scale air strike broke out, and geopolitical risks rose sharply. Gold broke through $3,400, crude oil rose to around $90, and global stock markets were generally under pressure. The crypto market fell synchronously. On June 13, BTC fell to around $103,000, a 24-hour drop of 3.5%; ETH fell by more than 8%, SOL fell by nearly 9.5%, and the CD 20 index fell by 6.1%. The main reasons are the flow of safe-haven funds to gold and the US dollar, the decline in local demand in Iran, and the selling of highly volatile assets. However, the market basically digested the impact of geopolitical conflicts on Monday this week. Both BTC and ETH showed strong resilience and rebounded quickly. The SP 500 and Nasdaq rose by 0.94% and 1.5% respectively, and gold fell by 1.5%. The markets focus gradually turned to the FOMC meeting and the progress of crypto market institutions.
The GENIUS Act is advancing, and stablecoin regulation is entering a new stage
Last week, the U.S. Senate voted 68:30 to support the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, which entered the full debate, marking substantial progress in stablecoin regulation. The bill establishes a compliance framework and clarifies the legal status for dollar-pegged payment stablecoins, and has received broad bipartisan support. Supporters believe that the framework will increase transparency and promote the use of stablecoin payments, while opponents worry that high barriers will restrict innovation and squeeze small issuers. If successfully passed, mainstream stablecoins such as USDC and USDT are expected to benefit directly, the market structure may be further integrated, and legislative progress will also affect the direction of global digital asset regulation.
The US Senate advances the GENIUS Act, marking a milestone in stablecoin regulation
Last week, the U.S. Senate voted 68:30 in favor of the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, which entered the full debate, marking substantial progress in stablecoin regulation. The bill establishes a compliance framework for dollar-pegged payment stablecoins, clarifies their legal status, and has achieved rare bipartisan consensus. Supporters believe that the GENIUS framework will enhance market transparency and promote the use of stablecoins in the payment field. Opponents worry that high thresholds may limit innovation and squeeze small issuers. If successfully passed, mainstream stablecoins such as USDC and USDT will benefit directly, and the market structure may accelerate integration. Legislative progress will also affect the global digital asset regulatory path.
Market Hotspots
China-US trade agreement reached initially, rare earths and tariffs become the focus of the game
Last week, China and the United States reached a preliminary trade agreement, the core of which is that China promised to pre-supply rare earth materials to the United States to ease the pressure on the U.S. industrial supply chain in exchange for the U.S. export tariff to China set at 55% (Chinas 10% to the United States). Although the tariff is lower than previously expected, it is still higher than the historical average, which puts pressure on the economies of both sides. Overall, the short-term easing has not changed the main line of high-risk games and uncertainty.
JPMorgan Chase plans to deploy crypto payments, and the JPMD trademark triggers expectations for stablecoin innovation
JPMorgan Chase recently applied for the JPMD trademark in the United States, covering digital asset transactions, payments, clearing and other encryption services, which may pave the way for its own stablecoins and blockchain financial applications. Earlier news said that JPMorgan Chase and other major banks are studying the joint launch of US dollar stablecoins to accelerate cross-border and daily payment efficiency. Currently, JPM Coin has processed more than $1.5 trillion in interbank blockchain payments.
Trump Media approved $2.3 billion BTC reserves, personal annual income of $57.35 million in crypto
Trump Media Technology Group (DJT) received SEC approval for $2.3 billion in financing this week, and plans to allocate most of the funds to BTC, aiming to become the worlds third largest corporate BTC holder. It was disclosed at the same time that Trump earned $57.35 million in revenue through the family encryption platform in 2024, surpassing his traditional business. The company positions BTC as a core financial asset to strengthen its asset structure. Although the company actively promotes its encryption strategy, DJTs current stock price has fallen by 42% this year, and its revenue is far lower than its losses. The market has doubts about its profit model and valuation. Industry analysis points out that the trend of listed companies allocating BTC is accelerating, and related fluctuations and risks deserve continued attention.
Circle surged nearly 390% in ten days after listing, and the leading stablecoin led the industry to mainstream
Circle (CRCL), the worlds leading stablecoin issuer, was listed on the New York Stock Exchange on June 5, becoming the first stablecoin company to successfully IPO. On the first day of listing, Circles stock price rose by 168%, and its closing market value exceeded $21 billion. As of now, Circles stock price has increased by nearly 390% in ten days, and its latest market value is close to $36.7 billion. As the first stablecoin stock, Circle took the lead in completing a compliant listing, becoming a landmark event for the industrys legalization and capitalization.
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