On the morning of June 24, as Trump announced that Israel and Iran fully agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire, the secondary cryptocurrency market rebounded after the risk aversion last night due to fears of an escalating war. BTC briefly fell below $100,000 and then rebounded to break through the $106,000 mark, with many altcoins waiting for an opportunity to rebound. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, BTC has been falling back for nearly a week, hitting a low of $98,200 yesterday and quickly rebounding to $106,075 today, an increase of more than 8.02% during the period.
The Fed has turned dovish again, with Fed Governor Bowman speaking out, supporting a rate cut as early as July. The lack of significant inflationary pressure since Trump imposed tariffs on April 2 may enable the Fed to cut rates again.
Influenced by the positive news of the official ceasefire between Iran and Israel, the crypto market has rebounded sharply, with the market value rising 6% from the low point. The Feds interest rate cut expectations have also boosted market sentiment, and the flooding brought about by the interest rate cut is expected to start a new round of market conditions. How will BTC perform in the future? Lets see what traders in the market think.
Related reading: There is hope for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the Fed turns dovish, and BTC rises 8% overnight
Macro analysis
@Phyrex_Ni
The core driving factor of todays market explosion may be the rapid change in oil price expectations, especially the markets reassessment of the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz. According to Polymarket data, the probability has now dropped to about 30%, reflecting the markets belief that Iran lacks the ability to actually blockade, which in turn weakens concerns about rising oil prices, causing oil prices to fall to around $68.
As far as the crypto market is concerned, although BTC has experienced sharp fluctuations, the on-chain data does not show obvious panic. The turnover is mainly concentrated in short-term bargain hunters, and long-term investors remain on the sidelines. In terms of support, the $93,000-98,000 range remains solid, while the $105,000 range is subject to the risk of a pullback due to the accumulation of short-term buying. Overall, oil prices and war expectations remain the key variables that determine the volatility of risky assets.
Last Friday, the inflow data of BTC ETF was still normal. Although there were signs of escalating fighting at that time, investors were generally optimistic and there was still no large-scale selling.
But the data for ETH is not very good, especially since there has been no net inflow for 29 consecutive days. In addition, BlackRock, which has the main net inflow most of the time, has seen an outflow of more than 8,000 ETH, which led to the overall bad situation on Friday. Even the Hong Kong Hua Xia ETF saw an outflow of more than 900 ETH.
In general, at least for now, ETH does not have the ability to break out independently. It did rise significantly some time ago, but as we have always emphasized, without good enough liquidity, the price has not been able to maintain breakthrough increases many times, and without liquidity, it is difficult to drive the altcoin season that a large number of investors are looking forward to.
@Cato_CryptoM
The current market is generally optimistic about geopolitics and potential risks. The mainstream view in the market is that Iran and the United States are playing along. Geopolitical risks and energy price risks have been temporarily resolved, but this does not mean that all risks are gone. Once Iran takes actions beyond the market norm, all views will be overturned. I am more accustomed to watching and walking.
As for the price of BTC, I also agree that the impact of geopolitical risks on prices has gradually weakened. But the same question remains: after the geopolitical risks are resolved, where will the short-term upward momentum of BTC come from?
If the interest rate is cut in July, it can really stimulate the market sentiment. I am not extremely bearish on the market, but I think that after the short-term price breaks through the new high, will there be a rest period?
Technical Analysis
@biupa
Although the market has rebounded due to the good news, BTC has a resistance level at 106,000, and it is recommended to take most of the bottom-fishing positions. Although it is bearish to a certain extent, it does not expect a big drop, and it may enter a new round of market after the interest rate cut.
Looking horizontally, it seems that it has not fallen below the top range. Using horizontal support or indicators such as VP TPO can indeed lead to the conclusion that it has not fallen below. For example, people like Credibull are bullish based on this logic. (The concept of moving average does not exist on the charts of such traders.)
For me personally, the moving average is more important than the horizontal range. It can be seen that June 6 was the first time to touch 2x VEGAS downward, and it was also quickly retracted after the pin. The probability of the first break and retraction is very high (the first blow, the second weaken, and the third exhaustion); the moving average is still bullish and divergent. At present, it is at the same price, but the price is already below 2x VEGAS, and 1x VEGAS and MA 100 EMA 200 have turned downward. Similarly, the second touch of the moving average did not have a very obvious pin retraction action, but consolidated below the channel. Therefore, I am not optimistic.
Structurally, there is a large short position (strictly speaking, it has not been established yet, because there is no lower low) and a small short position (June 10th to present), two nested short positions.
At the order book level, there has been no large number of orders from the spot below since the rise on April 10. The previous few times, such as the bottom-fishing on June 6 and the bottom-fishing on June 13, were based on factors such as the moving average. Because the price is at the top range and still in a bullish trend, we naturally cannot wait for a large number of orders from the spot below to enter the market. But if the bullish trend ends here and returns to a wide range of fluctuations, we still need to enter the market according to the large number of orders in the order book (the main basis for bottom-fishing last year), and we need to reach 98,000 before we can consider it.
Where can I buy the bottom? The order book level is the 98000 range, and the structural support is provided by the weekly FVG 100600-97900 and the daily level FVG 95700-95000. The daily MA 100 is at 95600 (currently in an upward trend). These three indicators are independent of each other, but if they are met at the same time, the winning rate will not be low.
What should I do with the altcoin? It has fallen below 220 b and there is no obvious rebound. The structure is also somewhat bad. The corresponding key supports below include 200 b (pin position on March 11/pin position on April 16), 193 b (weekly level oblique trend line support), 186 b (daily level FVG/previous low on April 7), etc. If Bitcoin falls to the 97,000 range, the corresponding altcoins are all possible.
@CryptosLaowai
BTC rebounded short-term after reaching 98k. 98 is not an important support level, but a rebound after falling below 100k in the short term and sweeping a lot of liquidity. The downward trend will continue. The pressure levels currently visible here are 101500 and 103500. If it reaches this level, it will be a good position to add shorts.
BTC 103500 arrived as expected, even higher. Although it was driven by news, its essence in the market is to squeeze out. The news pushed it higher. There is great pressure around 106, the red line, the long-short watershed. Dont be surprised if it returns to 9 in one or two days. The rate turned positive, the indicator was overbought, and the 4h 1d pressure level has been reached. The recent market has been full of drops and sharp rises.
@roger 73005305
The current situation is that the more it rises, the more bearish we become. The market needs a healthy correction and capital outflows are accelerating.
@market_beggar
STH-RP has reached the short-term support level. It seems that the market is quite respectful to STH-RP. The chart below is drawn yesterday. Yesterdays weekly report mentioned that STH-RP was at 98,297, and this morning it just reached 98,200.
The short-term support level has been reached. If the price continues to drop for a secondary test, the acceptable tolerance range for bulls will fall roughly between 93.5K and 98K.
Currently, the price has returned to the previous low, and some taker buys can be seen, but the trading volume is average. Perhaps the market attitude after the opening of the U.S. stock market will be a more reliable reference.
Data Analysis
@Murphychen 888
Comparing the data on June 22 and June 5, we can find that when the price of BTC also fell back to around 100,000 USD, the scale of new demand in the market was far different. The scale of demand on June 5 even exceeded the previous peak on April 27, which also laid the foundation for BTC to rebound to 110,000 USD in the future.
However, I did not see similar data performance in the pullback on June 22. Perhaps it is because the current geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic background have made funds more cautious, but in any case, the weakening of demand will inevitably affect the strength of the rebound, which may not be as strong as last time.
If there is still no significant change in the next few days, it is estimated that BTC may continue to be weak. For those who buy at the bottom on the left side, it is recommended to manage their positions well.
@CryptoPainter_X
After a series of positive news, BTC completed the confirmation of the false break and took a direct rebound to the middle track. At the same time, the spot premium increased significantly and the funding rate dropped significantly, indicating that the buying mainly came from the spot, while some futures longs were closed.
The next idea is still clear. If the middle track is exceeded, continue to be bullish to near the high of the range. If it still cannot be exceeded, the price may need to test 102k again.
The data that can be used for early judgment mainly include:
1. If the funding rate remains negative, the probability of breaking through the middle track will increase;
2. If the spot premium index does not drop significantly during the middle track oscillation phase, the probability of a middle track breakthrough will increase;
If neither of the above two conditions is met, the probability that the price will be blocked at the middle track and retrace to 102k will increase.
The strong rebound overnight verified the logic of the 8000 spot buying entering the market in advance. Therefore, the current spot market tends to be dominant. The price behavior of the futures market with two consecutive incomplete liquidations indicates that the dominant force of futures is declining.
What we can see now is that the residual short liquidity at 107k is very close to being liquidated. If the market sentiment is good tonight, then this position is likely to be reached. Based on the price behavior after the 107k liquidation, we can consider several short-term trading ideas:
1. If the price breaks through the top after the pin clears 107k, then the price will most likely start a round of correction, with the target at the starting point of the left rising section, which is around 102k;
2. If the price does not show a significant pullback but keeps fluctuating upward, then the price behavior here is likely to be aimed at the huge short liquidity at high levels, and the target will be around 112,000 ~ 113,000.
In many cases, the market that breaks new highs will not pull up slowly, but will suddenly reverse at the end of a long period of decline, pull up to a new high in one breath, and complete the capture of liquidity. Therefore, whether you are a long or a short, you must be careful of this deliberate price behavior, which is a common phenomenon in the top distribution range.
Personally, I still hope that the price will fall back to 102k first, and then reopen the short liquidation market after obtaining effective support. After all, this scenario is relatively safe, and there is a possibility of a new long trend in the future. If the price is simply pulled up at all costs to clear the shorts, then the probability of upward rush and fall will increase significantly. After the high liquidity is liquidated, I will definitely consider shorting.
@DL_W 99
Last night, geopolitical conflicts escalated, but at a time of low liquidity, the price fell to around 98,500 due to excessive panic reaction. Now that the U.S. stock market has opened and oil prices have fallen, BTC has recovered a little and is fluctuating above 100,000. Last night, SOL also broke through the support of 140 and is now in a new support range of around 123-138.
Back to the data of SOL, the turnover rate on Friday, Saturday and Sunday was not high. More than 19 million chips changed hands in three days, as shown in the red font in the figure. It is still in the recent oscillation range. For example, short-term high-chasing chips above 150 are leaving the market. Although there are long-term chips leaving the market in other ranges, there are almost no chips.
The medium and long-term holdings are relatively stable after several months of market conditions. Each price is still a few hundred to a few thousand pieces of reduction, not much. From the perspective of chip accumulation and short-term turnover chips, there is still a large accumulation at 144 US dollars, exceeding 45 million chips, but 140-147 has become a short-term pressure range, and the new support range is around 123-138.
Currently, it is fluctuating in the upper part of the 123-138 range following the market rebound. Although the market sentiment is not further panic, for the already weak SOL, it is fluctuating with the market and has no independent market trend.
@AxelAdlerJr
Since April 13, the realized market value of the 0-1 month holder group has increased by $66 billion, indicating that recent buyers are actively taking profits. However, despite the sale of about 720,000 BTC, the price of Bitcoin remains in a narrow range, indicating that new buyers in the market continue to take over the selling pressure. This reflects that the current market buying power is relatively solid.
